Member Info for Serif

Anyone got sight of the MMs positions here? Had problems most of today getting online price to buy anything, but I can sell above the mid price.

Why would you do a placing if it’s not for the North Sea asset, when you have good income from Wressle? What would be the point?

@Gp. Small as possible offshore asset paid out of money in hand would be just fine! This share could then get moving to reflect the type of income figures you’re talking about. Still have to pinch myself that this is EOG making this sort of money - amazing what a difference to our finances one successful yet relatively small well can make.

@Yanis. Agreed this is painfully slow and looks like a mis-step in his interview. That said with Final Results due out next week, there is still time to complete the deal before then which would give something extra for EOG to talk about. If nothing by then will start to wonder what Simon is waiting for - perhaps the accounts will show that there is significant money from the last raise unspent which could be combined with accumulating Wressle income (and/or possibly a Morocco farmout deal) to cover an initial payment for a new asset.

@MrBB. Great that Ryan is now finally using the FF word! Now he just has to face up to whether he wants that produced in an environment he can control and police for environmental protection or would rather have it produced in a far away place -say like the Artic - which no one in Ireland has to see.

@GP. I think it is very likely that the infrastructure was designed around a flow of 500-600 bopd and that is what they are producing at present. However it also seems clear that they are surprised and delighted with the potential production rate, hence the move to upgrade the facilities to see what can be achieved. When they have all this information they can then decide whats possible and whether it’s best on commercial and technical grounds to produce at 500, 750 or 1000 bopd or whatever figure they finally arrive at. I can’t see that the production rate right now is that significant - very nice but not transformative whether it’s 500 or 800 over say the next 2 months - it’s the long term decisions that really matter.

Another good day for Egdon. Considering they have quite a few debts to settle on Wressle production, while we are debt free - looks like we may have some more catching up to do.

We may get some more clarity in a couple of weeks with EOG Final results, usual published around 13 Oct. I think it is difficult trying to estimate flows from the cash snapshots we had so far, not knowing exactly how many days it has been flowing, how much is stored on site, what technical operations may have had to be performed etc..

UJO are very clearly calling it a production rate - not just a one off event - of 884 in their latest rns. It’s an excellent result and I suspect the new CPR that UJO have commissioned may bring further good news. However as GP notes we don’t know what finally production rate they will settle on - it seems they think it can flow even higher, but there might be any number of technical and commercial reasons why they would choose to go for a lower production rate than the highest flow rate achievable. Still a stocking good result and more reservoirs to come!!

@cfq. The trade today was a buy not a sell @1.54, delayed reporting. It’s what took the price up this am.

Brent over $80 and finally even this share has to take notice and begin to move up!

@Tacuma. We are all currently hamstrung by the “North Sea Asset”, but not sure I agree that the BOD foresaw the extent of Wressle success and the rise of the OP - so think they may have even more income than they initially planned to spend! Where I do agree is that AIM companies are unlikely to start hoarding cash - they will be going for the next “big value” project. We just have to hope that Simons months of research pay off in this respect. Whatever is announced I suspect we won’t know for months whether that’s true or not - although I am sure there will be some pundits immediately declaring it a disaster! All I am hoping for is that it doesn’t skewer the SP and those that think there is more value here can then invest knowing where they stand.

I hope it is too, because then we should see a major re-rate and shouldn’t get held back by any placing fears!!

@Tovoc. Haven’t done detailed analysis but your figure looks high to me. A couple of thoughts. Shouldn’t we allow some “downtime” in the year for maintenance etc? Also pre Wressle production had dropped to 86 bopd in the Interims and allowing for our approximately 5% annual depletion rate is probably c82 bopd now.
I realise that putting all the production together gives a total revenue figure but I think this is sometimes not helpful as extraction costs are a lot higher on the older assets - whereas Wressle is sub $9 a barrel - extremely profitable. I presume Egdon will take the extraction costs out of the money raised from Wressle before we get it as revenue - and this will reduce the EOG revenue figure.
Personally I find it simpler and clearer to think of current production comfortably covering EOG costs, perhaps with a couple of £200-300k spare over the year for contingencies, while everything we get from Wressle (current OP minus $9 or less) is pure profit - I think this would be around £220k a month on a 500 bopd flow rate with oil close to $80 - so just scale this up once the final production flow rate is confirmed. My reading across the 3 JV RNSs is that they can probably get higher flows than the 884 declared ( think the gas will just be used to power operation so not extra revenue) but may decide to go for a lower production rate than the max achievable based on well longevity etc..

Agreed. But just hoping that current situation is going to inject some more reality into the debate about implications - especially when other Irish Ministers see investment being lost, anger from constituents and their own budgets/projects being cut to buy in foreign energy when they are potentially sitting on their own. Naively hoping that the majority non-green party politicians might start to demand some better solutions. We will see - but as you say if there is a time for Inishkea to get the “green light” this next year is probably it.

I think the debate around gas will be very different. Peat was an “easy win” - protecting local visible habitat, little economic impact, clearly not a fuel for transition - so no one looks too carefully at the hypocrisy of now importing it. Energy costs - and gas is clearly going to be in the mix for a long time as a backup at least - could be crippling for countries such as Ireland without their own supplies. There will be a much fiercer debate when the choice is risking national standards of living by making yourself dependent on foreign suppliers who can set the price. Creating a greener economy is going to be very expensive - this is already starting to get some serious airing -so the positives of having your own supplies (lower costs, higher tax revenues) start to stack up if you want to pay for a renewables revolution.

Agree with the sentiment, but I think they did buy some in March’s placing. Also if they are NOT access to privileged info on the North Sea asset at this moment, I want to know what Simon’s been doing/talking about! After this week’s Wressle news I’m looking for an announcement this coming week or next. Then I’ll be looking for a second RNS announcing the Director buys.

@Tovoc. Yes you’re probably right about long term confidence impact which the current uncertainty feeds into. Personally (and this is probably unpopular!) I can see why strategically EOG want a medium risk/medium-high reward strand to complement what they have - Morocco and Ireland may be the big prizes but too much of the timelines and developments there are out of our control and they can drift for ever - while Wressle and follow up is great but not big enough on their own to be “life changing”! But he will have to land it carefully to build rather than undermine confidence further by seeming to immediately throw away all we have gained before we can enjoy any benefit from it. The really brave thing to do might be what you suggest - ditch this opportunity and just build up that pot. New opportunities always come along - especially if you have ready cash to seize them quickly.

There’s been no money in the company for a new CEO and I think Simon deserves credit for making the cuts necessary to get us through last year - he went further than many other companies. Think if he backs the new venture with a substantial personal share purchase (it will after all be truly “his baby”) then I think it might get real interest, and shareholders would certainly feel more confident about his commitment and alignment here.

@Yanis. Yes think the uncertainty created by talking now of moving on the North Sea asset combined with regular selling taking off anything above 1.60 likely causing potential buyers to hesitate. Will only know the answer once Simon shows his hand and investors know what they are buying into and at what level. The company’s looking strong, and should start to move ahead once we get some clarity on this.