Member Info for Serif

Short interview appearing on Proactive today summarising the way forward on Inishkea.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1040514/europa-oil-gas-outlines-benefits-on-licence-extension-icymi-1040514.html

Let’s see if our seller rises to the challenge. There’s a couple of million there for them to take if they still have more left to chuck at the SP.

B - if so, more to the point, any idea how much more there is to come?!

VL - if this is an attempt to suppress the SP prior to takeout bid (and no idea if it is), with the regular selling starting in Jan it could just as well be a Vermillion. The cost of doing so would be peanuts to them and potentially save many millions in any offer.

Thanks for analysis GP. I imagine we will see a steady increase in water, but as this is now licenced for disposal (in an eog site?) can’t see this should really matter. They have referred a couple of times to managing the well to prevent water coning, and so long as they do this seems ok. Doesn’t wychfarm operate successfully on a 98% watercut? As for reduction in gas is that not also what we would expect at this stage? Also wonder if Nov may not be a reliable month since it covers the restart period.

Good clear update on where next with Inishkea. May be “1 month’s reprocessing work” but actually clear that the 2 year extension is all about getting the farm in partner and seeing out the current political blockage if necessary.

Lack of Wressle planning permission - another unexplained Heyco delay - while our seller continues to keep the price depressed.

Usual sell gone in this morning. Could have got same price last night but seem to prefer to drag this out for some reason.

Hopefully they will be introducing themselves to some of the local managers etc of major players in the area. Getting noticed and building these relationships quickly could be key to getting potential partners interested.

@Trackaman. Your shares could be loaned out - why would your broker tell you and have to split the fee! Seriously you can easily check with your broker/platform if they lend out shares for shorting and instruct them that your shares are not to be loaned out - unless you would rather have the fee than an SP rise that is!

I see what you mean - but sells are way over those totals - probably double at least, so we would have TR1. Not many PIs have over 20m but I bet some do and it only takes one. Bigger investors sell on strategies - so it will either be earmarked for another investment or other costs. You’re wasting time trying to persuade them once they’ve decided - much better looking to bring in new investment through developing opportunities, which is what the BoD seem to be doing - and there are more and bigger buys appearing alongside the sells.

Unlikely to be IIs imv. BGF have only ever sold when the SP was above their entry price of 3p, they sold in one block and reported it within time scale. Little in it for big companies not to report- if they are going out it’s usually a case of “what do they care if people know”, these are minute margins for them. They both own way more shares than the numbers you give 28.7m is approx the 3% mark. Someone or group seem to have made a New Year review decision to sell at virtually any price - having committed to this they are unlikely to be swayed now by the Board. Hoping that it was a large holder under the threshold who commissioned broker to dispose of holding by end Jan. as it looks like high 20 millions sold off over period. If it continues and then it looks more like a coordinated effort, and you have to start wondering what parties would have anything to gain from a strategy of increasing despondency amongst shareholders.

Any of our large holders would have had to TR1 along time ago (and when one of the IIs did sell before they followed the reporting rules). If a single seller just below 3% then they must be near limit as this pattern has gone on for 4 weeks and there have been approaching 30m in these apparently grouped sells. Might be just random chance but pattern of rounded sells regularly taking SP down and then selling more heavily looks odd. But if more than one seller involved it begs the question of who could be benefiting from this? Got no good answer to that post EG and Irish extension.

Especially as some kind of state owned LNG off shore storage was the only half baked solution the Irish energy review was allowed to put forward to address the gas shortfall over next 25 years.

Should get to see the plans for further drilling of Ashover and Pstones tomorrow - that is if we can trust Egdon/Heyco to stick to their published timetable.

Wonder if Inishkea West might also come in cheaper as it’s shallower - think WH mentions this in interview - and they have as good technical analysis as you can get on this prospect. Suspect any interested party might also swoop on all available licences in area to give themselves multiple opportunities.

Decent market reaction by end of day as the penny dropped. It’s the granting of a two year extension rather than last time’s one year that flags up a change in the Irish Gov stance for me. Think there are good reasons to be positive about Ireland prospects. After such a grim period here, some positive green shoots.

Thanks BobbyB - that’s a good reminder of the prospects and why it’s been worth persevering with this. I saw on a PRD rns that they have had signals that they may be getting news on their (largely unexplored) near Corrib licence to turn it into a FEL. If that gets approval too then the signal that Corrib is open for further gas exploration will be amplified further and all of us who came here originally for Ireland might finally (and unexpectedly!) be able to say “I knew I was right all along”!

It’s not can kicking, it’s keeping the licence alive. Personally I doubt that EOG or other parties are that interested in more studies, it’s all about whether a farm out now looks politically feasible.

I suspect after so long waiting for an Irish farm out it may take a while for this news to fully sink in to the market. I can’t see now how the Irish Gov could renew twice (taking the licence money) and then refuse a reasonably funded farmin and drilling operation - without getting sued massively. Hopefully some of the bigger interested companies will be drawing some of the same conclusions.