PROSPECTS16 Dec 2021 22:39
At end of November, there was $58 million free cash. Bonds outstanding now only $80 million. There is $4.5 million of interest to accrue on these bonds. So net deficit is circa $27 million.
Bonds are repayable July 22. At High Court June 21, the comparable figures were $132 million free cash, $230 million owed bondholders, plus interest to accrue of $17 million. So shortfall end June 21 was $115 million. Therefore in five months, shortfall has been reduced by $88 million, ie by average $17.6 million a month.
Before bondholders require repayment, there will be five more offloads. Each offload should be minimum 500k barrels and generate at least $20 million of free cash flow (increasing to $25 mill if Brent surges back to $85)
So as long as production continues as anticipated, bonds will be repaid in full and there will be surplus cash of around $65 million (increasing to poss $85million if Brent surges back to $85). Thereafter, from the P6 well alone, until March 2024, a further 4.7 million barrels should be produced generating a further $185 million of free cash flow (increasing to poss $230 mill with stable $85 Brent)
$250m is equivalent to circa 10p a share. $315m equivalent to circa 12.5p This wholly excludes the value of other acreage, any claim to the company's Directors & Officers insurer (re investigation results) and the potential benefit of very substantial tax losses. It is not implausible that the value to a trade buyer able to extract both the value of other acreages, and the value of very substantial tax losses, could double the 10p a share (poss 12.5p) value.
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