"Lightning"24 Feb 2019 17:43
"It is possible that people would only open and close channels once per month or even less frequently. But I think this analysis illustrates that even with some very favorable assumptions, the Lightning Network will not prevent a block size increase from being necessary in the future if Bitcoin achieves mass adoption.
If that block size increase never occurs? Well, fees will skyrocket, the memepool will get deeper than the depths of the Pacific Ocean, and nobody will be able to afford to open and close payment channels to use the Lightning Network in the first place.
More importantly, the high cost and wait times for closing channels will wreak absolute havoc on the trustlessness of the Lightning Network due to the game theory involved.
Whenever somebody closes a payment channel, there’s a waiting period before the settlement occurs on-chain in which the other party from the channel can verify that the most recent balance has been posted. If an outdated balance is posted, the other party can post a more recent balance and claim the full value of the channel.
This is a mechanism that disincentivizes people from posting outdated balances. But, if it’s extremely difficult to get a transaction confirmed within that waiting period, more people will have the incentive to try posting outdated balances so that they can double-spend their coins.
In other words, the importance of low wait times and fees for on-chain transactions is only amplified further by a large population using the Lightning Network.
Ultimately, if that scenario plays out, Bitcoin will lose market share to cryptocurrencies that scale more effectively"
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DYOR
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