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Kreno I too am a big bull of Harbour. But your figures are not quite accurate. The average for dated brent to date is about $92. However the forward curves now drag the average for the year to just over $90. I have $14 msfc for gas for the full year. The net of Indonesia and Waldorf is around $400m. We have to pay for Waldorf so you can't just include the trapped cash. Also the tax shield on Waldorf is already included in the managements guidance so you cannot add anything for that. So FCF for the full year should be $600m plus (5x170m) plus (3x150m) plus $400m plus say $100m (top of the range production adjustment). $2.4b for 2026. All of this should come in the first half (cf 2025). Net debt is already probably below $5bn.

Nacho the judgment of the High Court on the restructuring of Waldorf came out two weeks ago. However HMRC has applied for permission to appeal to the Court of Appeal. I think the judgement is completely sound but the application will cause delay and may mean that Waldorf does not complete as hoped by the end of this month.

Value the ratio being referred to is the net debt to EBITDAX. It is unrelated to market cap. The net debt by the end of this month should be around $4.7bn assuming that Waldorf completes. EBITDAX for the year will be or the order of $7bn. So already we are well below the required ratio to facilitate top of the range pay out. Net debt may be flat during the second half of year as FCF is stacked heavily towards the first half. For the full year FCF is adjusted as follows: $600m plus (5x$170m) plus (3.5 x $150m) = $1975m. (I have assumed average dated brent of $90 for the year and $14.5 msfc gas using the known prices and the forward curves). Add then the $400m from Waldorf and Indonesia (now completed) and I maintain around $200m for top of the range production (justified by the performance announced to the end of April) and FCF should be around $2575m. I do not think the board will count the sums realised from Waldorf and Indonesia so we have up to 75% of $2175m or $1543.75M for distribution in dividends and share buybacks. LC has already stated that she favours buybacks over dividends. The dividend should therefore remain at $300m leaving over $1200m for buybacks. FCF for 2027 now looks like $800m plus (2x $170m plus 2x$150m) =$1440bn. 2028 $1000m plus (1x$170m) = $1170m. In 2029 FCF starts to rise again at $70 brent and $10 msfc.

Harbour completed on LLOG 11th February 2026 and the net debt was raised to $7.2bn. By the end of March 2026 the net debt had reduced to $6.3bn implying FCF over that 47 day period of $900m. I have bored everyone senseless with my forecast of $2.6bn or so for 2026. All this FCF (perhaps more than 100% - cf 2025) should be made in the first half implying a net debt by the end of this month of $4.6bn plus the cost of the dividend paid or $4.75bn. To take out the remaining 25% owned by BASF would cost $1.5bn taking the net debt back up to $6.25bn. Each remaining shareholder would as a consequence own 33.33% more of the company. When Harbour bought LLOG it aimed to reduce net debt by $1bn by 2028!. Even buying out BASF allows it to do that by end of June. This is re-levering not de-levering but absolutely worth it in the long term. The FCF for 2027 -2030 will be lower than 2026 but still well in excess of $1bn a year allowing shareholder returns of more than $750m a year (to be divided among far fewer shareholders) whilst gradually paying down the debt.

I think Harbour has provided metrics which take into account its existing hedging book. In its most recent announcement on 7th May there was an express reference to the price of "dated brent" rather than the post hedge realised price. The current hedging book is not good for oil but good for gas. For valuation purposes you have to use the forward curves rather than "I think brent will remain above $100". The sharp backwardation shown in the ice futures contracts implies to me that dated brent is currently above $100 but not at the $120 we enjoyed in April. Dated brent averaged just under $80 in the first three months of the year but averaged around $112 in April and May. You have to adjust for higher production in April and May, but I think the average of dated brent so far this year is around $92. The current forward curve implies that that average will be dragged up slightly by the year end. On gas I think we are averaging around $13.5 msfc so far this year and the forward curve implies that this will be maintained or slightly higher for the rest of the year. I like the fact that 100% of the FCF for 2027 will be made in the first six months of the year. The period 1st January 2026 to 30th June 2027 should see cash generated equivalent to around 70% of market cap. That is why I say the market has got the valuation profoundly wrong. We are already below a ratio of 1 (EBITDAX is around $7bn) and so the pay out should be close to 75%.

1. Joining the FTSE after close tonight.

2. FCF in fact more like $2.6bn in 2026 (if Waldorf and Indonesia payments included) and $1.4bn in 2027 (all in first half).

3. Dated Brent still selling at a premium to ICE first tier forward prices.

4. Most expensive debt now cleared with insanely high cash flow in April and May.

5. HMRC defeated over Waldorf. Completion this month and $900m added to balance sheet in tax losses plus 20k a day boe.

6. EPL reform still a distinct possibility if Brent falls to below $90.

We were the 91st company at close on Friday BUT just £4m behind the 90th Howden Joinery. Today should change that as Brent is well up this morning. If we are in the top 90 at Tuesday's close we make it.

Laidback I keep thinking my forecasts cannot be right. But all I am doing is using the company's own metrics. Debt fell by $900m between 11th February and 31st March and dated brent averaged around $85 over that period and production averaged around 505k a day boe. Imagine a further 121 days at 520k a day and average $110 dated brent. Capex should be similar to the first quarter and tax quite a bit higher but even so there should be around another $1.5bn or so net debt reduction. The media coverage should be very very positive. But not sure we will now make the FTSE 100 for this quarter.

I do think the August announcement will be a watershed. The 1 per cent of the market participants who follow this board might know that FCF for the first half will be well above $2bn (perhaps $2.5bn) but the market as a whole may not expect as much. I wonder if the market as a whole appreciates that April saw dated brent at $120 and production at 520k. I wonder if the market as a whole appreciates that whilst the hedging of brent is indifferent there have been some spectacularly well timed hedging of gas.

Morning Stevo. All the forecast that I have done are based on the forward price curves and the company's own metrics. Even after the recent falls and the sharp backwardation shown in the futures market (which I find hard to trust) and including the $400m from Indonesia and Waldorf I have FCF of $4.1bn for 2026 and 2027. Given what the company has said about its preference for buybacks and the fact we have a ratio of below 1 to EBITDAX (already) I see at least $1.5bn being used to buy and cancel shares in the next two years or so.

Agreed Thunder 2040. Much of the debt carries a negative rate of interest in real terms. Even the most expensive debt is barely above 6%. I am happy to let it wither on the vine, with more spare cash going to buyback shares. There is a realistic path to £10 a share by the end of the decade and it involves buying shares whilst they are cheap from sellers who want out.

Using the forward curves and the company's own metrics the FCF for 2026 is now $600m plus (5.5 x $170) plus (3 x$150) = $1.985bn. Add $400m for Indonesia and Waldorf. Add $200m for top of the range production and Harbour is still on course to generate around $2.6bn this year. 2027 is $800m plus (2x$170) plus (2x $150) $1440m. Plus at least $60 from interest savings= $1.5bn 2028 is $1000 plus (1x $170) = $1170 plus $100m from interest savings = $1.270bn. Thereafter at the assumed $70 brent and $10 gas FCF rises rapidly thanks to LLOG and Mexico. So of course the valuation at just $5.8bn is too low. Dated Brent appears still to be well above $100. (I have assumed $92.5 for the full year and we have averaged so far around $95)

The Brent forward prices for the rest of 2026 have come down quite a lot. But less so for 2027 and not at all for 2028. It is worth focusing on Waldorf and LLOG for next year. In both cases there should be no, or virtually no, tax to pay. In Waldorf's case the entire production is protected by deductible losses for each of the three taxes. In LLOG's case the "blended" tax rate is 23% but because Harbour can write off the acquisition price there should be no tax to pay. Assuming LLOG's production is 50k and Waldorf's is 20k and assuming gross revenue of $70 per boe. The gross revenue should be 70,000 x 70 x 365 = $1.785bn. Deduct $14 per boe for opex ($357m) and 400m capex ($100m Waldorf and $300 LLOG) and these two beauties should produce around $1bn of FCF on their own next year. Net debt should be around $5bn as of today (down from $6.3bn as of 31st March 2026). That is a function of $120 dated brent to end of April and perhaps $110 dated brent in May to date combined with production of 520k boe a day. Of the $5bn in net debt $3bn carries an interest rate of 3% or less. $1bn is at 1.37%! So we now have a gearing of less than 1 and have already more than achieved the board's modest ambition of reducing net debt by $1bn by 2028.

Neversellshell. I do not think it is possible to know what the immediate market reaction would be to spending $1.5bn on buying 25% of the share capital and then cancelling the shares. However, the most expensive debt we have costs around 6% interest per annum. So the opportunity cost of spending that money on the shares would be a foregone $90m a year in FCF. But if you take the view (as I do) that the company using the present forward curves could generate around $6bn in FCF in the years 2026 to the end of 2029 ($2.4bn $1.4bn $1bn and then $1.2bn) and thereafter around $1.5bn per annum, the effect on overall FCF is limited and very affordable. However the real point is that it would greatly enhance FCF (or earnings) per share. $5.64 bn (rather than $6bn) would be distributable among 1.17bn shares rather than 1.57bn. Of course the effect becomes even greater if we were to buy 50% of the shares for $3bn. Again I think that would be affordable over the next two years on the present trajectory of FCF. It is essentially a gearing up strategy that enhances both the rewards and the risks.

I would buy the entirety of BASF's shares as soon as the current shareholders' resolutions allow. This would cost $1.5bn at present prices. But that is very comfortably affordable from the next two years FCF. It does of course mean we will remain rather more highly geared than otherwise. But this is just not a problem. The debt is long dated and cheap to service. Harbour at the time of the LLOG acquisition in December planned to reduce net debt by $1bn by 2028. It has done that already. The first quarter was $700m FCF but that rather understated the true figure because there was a $200m "working capital" build. The second quarter will be insanely high as we have been told that production in April was 520k and dated brent was $120. We need to be investing those cash balances not sitting on them. I am very happy to own a bigger slice of the company.

Hi Property 1. I am taking my information from the Sunday Times list. Not sure why theses lists differ. But either way on course to be in the FTSE 100 in two weeks.

Harbour is the 82nd most valuable company in the FTSE 100 and 250. It will automatically join the FTSE 100 provided it remains in the top 90. But I remain very optimistic about FCF. For the full year I now have $600m plus (7 x $170) plus (4 x $150) = $2390m. It is not too optimistic to use $100 Brent given that we were informed that the price for dated Brent was $120 in April. Add then the $400m from Indonesia and Waldorf and we are up to $2790m. If last year is anything to go by, because of the timing of tax and capex as well as the higher production in the first half ALL that FCF will be earned in the first half. So I am expecting around $2bn in the second quarter. This does mean the company will be able to comfortably buy 10% of the voting share capital for the measly sum of around $600m.

I think Stevo will say that the tax savings will just be on Waldorf's production. The $900m will be saved on tax over many years and so needs to be discounted to give a fair reflection of value.

My figures for FCF are now $600 plus (7x170m) plus (3x150m) = $2240m implying at 45% a $1.008bn return to share holders and the balance used to retire debt. I do not think the $400m from the first 2 December 2025 transactions is strictly FCF but it will reduce net debt by a further $400m. But her is why I think the current production forecast narrowed to 480k- 500k is too conservative. Last year production in the first half was 500k a day. In the second half it was 448k a day to give an annual figure of 474k. the drop of course is attributable to annual planned maintenance in Norway and the UK. This years production reported has been 509k for January and February and 500k for March and then 520k for April. The dip in March was attributable to planned maintenance work at LLOG. I see no reason why 520k should not be maintained to the end of June as no significant maintenance is planned. This would give us a first half figure of 513k. The second half based on 2025 would drop to around 460k to give around 486k. But we should have Waldorf at 20k a day from the end of June and rising production in the US offsetting UK decline (ignoring Waldorf). This should take us to around 500k or the very top of the range. The same thing happened last year with the company eventually achieving top of the range production. I think LC and AK are naturally cautious in their estimates. An extra 12.5k a day at $100 boe is $456m additional revenue before allowing for taxation which will be payable in 2027.

No. 7 x $170m!