Member Info for Sekforde

Thanks Sitting Duck. I was challenged by Londoner 7 about OPEX in Norway being around $11. And I wondered where I had got the figure from. LC suggested it was $11 to $12 or may be lower. She also seemed to suggest the guidance on production was conservative. So patiently waiting for next update. FCF may be nearer $1.1bn for full year. And then perhaps $1.3bn in first six months of 2026.

Extremely worrying. UK Government borrowing at well above the typical mortgage rate. Too much spending.

None at all really. But the additional earnings from $79 Brent should allow a further $100m buyback as the present commitment is completed. The number of cheap shares being supplied to the market is finite and I am happy for Harbour to be hoovering them up at this level.

The noose is tightening. I think we are seeing the effect of daily buybacks. The sp has risen slightly today despite Brent and gas being down and the market as a whole being lower. The broker will have to ramp up the daily spend a little complete in the 86 trading days before the year end. I think the shorters will soon be under pressure to buy back their shares. Yield still around 8.5% or 11% if you include the buybacks.

I am not trying to overestimate production and one has to allow for the summer shutdowns. In the case of Bruce we are told this will only be 12 days. I am just doing the maths for 2026. We have been told before the shutdown of Bruce on 16th August production was over 50k per day and this was before all the other wells come on stream. If we do manage 7k a day extra from Triton then that is 7 x 67 x 365 extra revenue or $171.18m. And applying a tax rate of 38% that gives an additional FCF of $106m to add to the Auctus Advisers forecast of $345m. Buy hey I would settle for $345m.

The production in the last two weeks has therefore been (in terms of boe) Triton 20,000 BKR 21,600, other assets 5,500. So already we have achieved 48,100 with more to come on stream in the next two weeks from Bittern, Guillemot and Evelyn. Conservatively this should add 7,000 which takes us to 55,100 boe a day. If we maintain that to the end of the year FCF for the second half will be more than $100m. But then we have Belinda starting at the beginning of the year (7,500) which takes us to at least 62,600. Auctus say FCF of more than $300m for 2026. But that is on the basis of 43,000 per day. It is too conservative. Allowing for maintenance in the summer we could achieve at least 50,000 boe a day in 2026.

Each day that passes without a rns is good news. It means that Triton should be back on stream and contributing to the 50k boe a day. Of course with a market cap of around $900m Serica is not quite the bargain it was when it had a market cap of just over $600m. But still a bargain. Auctus advisers has FCF for 2026 at $345m. They are slightly too optimistic on the assumed price of oil and gas and the dollar pound exchange rates. But where they seem very pessimistic is on assumed production of 43k boe per day. Belinda alone which we are told comes on stream at the beginning of 2026 (1st January would be nice) will contribute an additional 7.5m a day at least which is in addition to the 50k plus which we should be producing now. You have to assume an awful lot of down time to arrive at only 43k. Assuming no M and A using the forward curve and an exchange rate of 1.345 I now think FCF will be about $400m in 2026. With no net debt at the end of 2025 and a $80m dividend to pay that will mean there will be net cash on the balance sheet of over $300m at the end of 2026. With any luck the monster that is Kyle will be on the move forward by then.

Nozzleblast. I think it is absolutely fine and helpful to refer to other similar companies especially for comparative valuation purposes. I am for now just in Habour and Serica. I used to have a big chunk in Enquest but I follow Stevo 12's analysis and he got me worried about the high cost in a low price environment so I made the switch and I am glad I did.

1. Current production now 50k boe a day and more to come.

2. Triton fixed for good.

3. No more downtime for summer maintenance before July 2026.

4. Belinda starting beginning of 2026 and to boost out put by at least 7500 boe a day.

5. No net debt year end.

6. FCF in 2026 at least $400m against market cap of $870m.

7. Tax losses worth around $500m (without allowing for deferment).

8. Modification to EPL likely in Autumn statement following constructive consultation.

9. In FTSE 250 in December 2025 prompting buying from trackers and others.

The market cap published every where is based on the number of voting shares x the current price and comes to around $4.62bn making the company the 114th most valuable company. But if the 251m non voting shares are included then the market cap rises to $5.45bn or the 98th most valuable company. To be automatically included in the FTSE 100 the market cap would need to be in the top 90 companies or presently $6.51bn. I think when making the assessment all classes of shares are included. To become a FTSE 100 company again would attract investment from tracker funds but also raise the profile of the company and I think draw favourable valuation comparisons on yield FCF etc with the giants such as Shell and BP.

I really would like to see the Enquest deal happen. The latter looks great without its debt. Combined with Serica the debt could be cleared in about 12 months or so. The structure of the deal is sound. Enquest makes an all share bid but accepts a lower percentage than it wanted before of the combined company. It cannot make money with Brent at around $65.

Nav Mike you are too sensitive. I think you said on 30th July 2025 "buybacks will put the share price into sideways mode for months on end". The sp then was 199.6 p. I think you should expect a little gentle teasing in the happy circumstance of the share price rising by almost 20% since the company announced the buybacks (along of course with stella results).

And who suggested that buybacks do not work? Brent down gas down. Harbour up again! But still ludicrously cheap.

Yes I do not see how they have managed that. They are not permitted to pay more than 5% above the average price of the last 5 trading days.

At present market cap Harbour is 112th most valuable UK company. There is a fighting chance that we will make it to the FTSE 100 by December of this year.

I am ignoring the $70m on the non voting shares

It is just superficial. To my mind what the report and market are missing is the forward FCF. $1.36bn FCF in the first six months of 2025 was just incredible. We will have of course negative FCF in the second half but then the company should manage a repeat of first half 2025 in first half 2026. True commodity prices will likely be much lower but that should largely be offset by lower finance charges, lower capex, and lower opex. The cash balance (after paying a dividend of $222m and a further $100m in share buybacks) could easily be around $3bn on 30th June 2026. Shareholders buying before 15th August 2025 will receive in the next 10 months $380m in dividends and $200m in buybacks on the voting shares. Against a market cap of $4.36bn that is a true yield of 13.2%. The share buybacks should begin next Wednesday or Thursday as FCA rules will preclude any purchases before then.

Under summary of first half performance. Third paragraph.

Laidback. It is in their announcement. Production for July 493k.

Barely a mention but post the year end results the company averaged 493kboe/d. How on earth did it managed this, given the summer shutdown programme (presumably) started at the beginning of July?