Member Info for Sekforde

The net debt may be $3.6 bn but the company has cash and liquidity of around $5bn. And the important point is that it has some fabulous hedging right out to the end of 2026. It can safely up the share buybacks and it should. But it is a fact the lower the price the better it is for for long term holders. Let the suckers sell a company with a safe and effective yield of 15%. (dividends plus buybacks)

The yield is almost 12% which is high for commercial property. I suspect the seller is nervous that Harbour will not want to renew the lease after 9 years and there will be no other takers. There may even be a break clause in the lease. No real need for a property of that size.

I do not think sanctions will stop the oil coming to the market as China and India seem determined to face down the threat and Russia can always reduce the price to make it more attractive. But the knocking out of refining facilities and port facilities could be more effective. Essentially however these are all short term factors. I think we want to have Brent around $65 as any more causes a surge in supply and then the inevitable slump. We have some great hedges but I would hedge all the production through to 2027. This gives certainty to earnings at a time when the market is fretting about a slump.

At the moment the company is buying about 300,000 shares a day out of a total of 1,432,704,167. It amounts to just over 0.1% of the outstanding share capital a week. 0.1% is not enough to turn the tide. But I think the share buyback is sustainable and as soon as the $100m is completed, the board will authorise a further $100m and so on. A week's purchases amounts to nothing. But over a year 5% of the voting shares will be eliminated if prices do not move upwards - more if they move downwards. The total return to shareholders is 14% per annum and that is all being achieved whilst the debt is steadily being paid back.

$68 Brent and $1.4m additional gross revenue a day over assumed $65 Brent. Lift off awaits 1st October update.

How should a market value a company that is capable of producing FCF of around $1.2bn for the next 20 years? Perhaps the market does not believe it? Perhaps it is fretting about the debt? But I think worth listening to LC 's fireside chat as to the enormous potential that is Argentina.

£3.50 would take us to a market cap of $6.78bn. Not much for that sort of FCF. And below the "assumed" value of the shares at the time of Wintershall Dea deal.

The main point we can agree upon is that the hedging for 2026 is fantastic. I keep returning to the incredible FCF in the 1st half of this year ($1.3bn) and ask myself why that cannot be repeated in the 1st half of 2026? It can be. Costs are coming down and capex is coming down and that should offset any marginal reduction in realised prices and production. On production I am extremely hopeful we have good news ahead. The key is in the July 2025 production figures - 493k boe a day at a time when the summer maintenance in the north sea had begun. We will be absolutely at the top of our forecast range and the FCF forecast of $1bn for this year will be again revised upwards. The debt levels come the end of June 2026 will be tiny. I see £3.50 a share before then. The market just has to look at Habour compared to Akur BP.

We have excellent hedging to the end of 2026 but not beyond. Bonds mature in 2028.

77% of the voting shares are owned by just 9 companies/institutions/Carlos Slim. None of these have sold any shares since the buybacks started and it is reasonable to suppose that they will not at anything like the present prices. The market is being fed only by the holders of the remaining 23%. I suspect that most of those holders think the shares are undervalued. At some stage the supply of shares at sub £2.50 will start to dry up.

I think it is just bad luck. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the equipment or the vessel. Vibration is a solvable issue. The real problems are behind us. Things will look very different by the end of the year.

It is worth looking at the latest from Auctus Advisers. They have calculated the impact on FCF will be $70m this year and have suggested end year of $100m net debt. But the FCF for 2026 is now $373m. So a real opportunity for the brave.

The dividend yield is now 10.66%.

Nothing in the latest report suggests anything other than a short term fixable problem. Taking the mid point loss of production as 3500 per day for 2025, the loss of revenue is around $85m before adjustment for reduced tax. After tax adjustment it is around $50m. 2026 looks completely unaffected. The issue is however one of confidence. One thing after another and very frustrating. But the market has overreacted.

The problems identified are all fixable and quite minor compared to the previous problems. Very disappointing though

We are promised an investors update on 1st October. By that date the summer's maintenance will be over and the company will able to give clear guidance on oil and gas production to the end of the year and of course update FCF. I think we are all in for a very pleasant surprise. I would not be at all surprised if production is right at the top of the current range. Very very cheap. Still buying.

The slight fall in the sp is a function of lower Brent prices. The dividend yield is 9%. The average cost of the debt is 6.3%. The interest earned on cash balances (around $2.7bn) is around 4%. We have however excellent hedging into 2026 and so we are heading towards a 1st half which could yield FCF of the same as this year. The company is able to maintain the dividend (which means after the buybacks it will rise on a per share basis) and maintain the current program at about $200m a year. The debt is quite low for a company producing just under 500k boe a day. It is secure until 2028. It is gradually being paid off and eroded by inflation.

Agreed. I do care about climate change and accept the scientific consensus as to the cause. But that is all the more reason to use our own resources. Importing from the US is insane from every point of view. I think the Government is slowly shifting its position and we will see some good news in the autumn statement.

The fact is that Milliband was right. The tax rate has no impact on the price of gas and oil because that is set internationally. However the point that could have been better made is that taxing domestic production at 78% does in the long term reduce investment in the North Sea as compared to lower taxing jurisdictions. Hence Harbour's decisions.

The absence of a further dreaded RNS about Triton suggests that there are no more problems. We should be above 50k boe a day now.

Serica was obviously right not to merge with Enquest on the terms apparently on offer. But the forecast 2026 FCF for Serica is greater than Enquests's net debt so there must now be a deal to be done. Enquest has to accept a smaller slice of the combined companies.