Member Info for Seingred

Pens poised, filling in next options release and expenses lol.

sometimes it’s just better to switch to a better mode of transport. Gla

Hirsch, I think the idea that king Mellon is stringing this out to catch a rise in pog is a tad hopeful. Amazing that so much kudos is attached to someone who led peeps to expect 150 k oz production this year. The reason calibre are doing well is they are producing gold and bought two mines for $100 m yet you hope for £1 plus / $250m for something that needs another $100-150 m and 2 years to get to production. Geo politics are worse for entering the country for western companies however they are already there ,producing, debt free,cash rich and diversified.

Simms you have been predicting deal finalise in a month for over a year now. Best to just wait for the good or bad news imv. My prediction is if it completes the sp returned is unlikely to be much more than double today’s. Not bad if you are buyin in today . There is also the possibility perhaps of suspension when deal is anounced if asset sale until payday. Not sure I fancy that much.

Johnstonedeo, no1 on any investor expert advice. If bod don’t have considerable skin in the game , avoid!

Compare collective to these jokers! And compare their m cap. Sp progression.

Hi ddd. I don’t think any deal will be influenced by short term movement in pog. Gold companies don’t think short term quite rightly. Of course it is preferable for gold to be on the up though. Bitcoin etf is pulling investors from gold etf in a big way currently and Bitcoin has hit an all time high today. Gone from $18 k to 67 k in a year and another year at least of bullrun left.

Not sure tech has topped out . Not mine anyway. Holding nvidia , big bear ai , c3ai . American super conductors microstrategy and others and have transformed my pf over the last year. Only traditional miners that have done anything for me have been uranium and copper. Still ,started buying back in to a few gold producers very recently even joined 888 in n m. Sold out most a few months back.

Can’t quite make my mind up whether to let some more go here or gamble on a deal happening and buy back 24 p shares? Mm.

Get a move on non dom it’s getting boring here waiting for your next 15 p warrant exercise. At this rate we will have the next rns telling us about the next load of options!

And funnily enough Bitcoin also making alth . Both can profit for the same reasons. Bought bit more producers today but microstrategy is the star for me.

Karl, good luck a good resolution and that could be a good buy. Bhargav spent 25 k a month ago when sp was upper 3 s a month ago so yesterday was a somewhat better day to buy just depends what transpires re anza. Not for me presently but Again good luck.

888, recent past is stretching it. About 5/6 years ago and more when mooted. They have indeed spare capacity but they are bringing more projects on stream and proving up new resources at a pace,high grade too.from memory mc alluded to 30-40 k oz. P a. I don’t believe that there is the ability to not build the mine at la India it is stated in permits.

I have done a bit of volte face and bought some producers back this afternoon . Re bought a few nicely under previous exit.

Back in equinox , b2 and a few other divi payers.

Bald mark , agree . The permits also are to build a mine. They already have two that cost less than the cost of building la India . Also la India is too far away from production to fit their model imv. Marathons main project is under construction with first pour early next year with 195k oz for 14 years ina great jurisdiction. $250m. Cannot see how calibre comes to Cnr with a $100 or $150 m mine build to finance and carry out. They buy near term or producing projects that add instant or near term cash. And as you say want to lesson jurisdiction risk

Breaktwister. It seems unlikely to me that they parted with $2 m without gaining some form of security somehow.

I am pretty much out now and will keep an eye and perhaps have a modest punt at some point but not feeling great about this one but hope they prove me wrong and anounce anza soon. I just cannot see how the numbers work and can only see another placing a little bit further down the road. Far too risky for me right now .

Gla

Simms, payback would be from commercial production not first pour. Ramp up period is generally 6 months. And that still leaves the cost of the project to be recouped. £200 m plus if some are to be believed.

Agreed quick payback is important for sale. However $105m needs spending ,18 months construction, 6 months ramp up so 3 years minimum for payback. Then another couple of years to pay off project. The value of the mine in 3 years time is hard to guess. Currently tho Shg is being sold for £150 m.

We should see a deal eventually because the economics are good but geopolitics and a poor selling market hinder a good sale price imo.

888, did newmont lose 50% of its value between oct 2022 and dec 2022??? 28p -14p. No it went up around 25%.That is fact too . Obviously you can manipulate by what point you measure from! So your measure from the heavily discounted placing is deliberately misleading.

I will give you another comparison. I switched some shares from condor around 35 p after a placing into calibre at $1.25. Cnr are currently hovering close to 20 p. Calibre $1.55.

Agreed this is a very hard market . The idea that Cnr is going to kick off the bull year with a good price is very hopeful. What in your opinion is a good price ?

Still curious how calibre could payback in a year?

Hi ddd. I think the obvious starting point is how much total for deal as currently it is an asset sale. Then how many shares will there be and then what are the costs? 65p means £130 m min plus any allied costs so min of £160 m . That’s a big ask I think but hope you are closer than my estimate.

888, yes that is a classic way to manipulate the facts. Ignore the massive crashing of the sp with the big discounted placing in the prior months and go from there. I believe we went from around 28 p to 15 p.

Agree the Goldie market isn’t good for a sale. Should have been selling in 2020/21 .

Now is clearly not the time when big boys are paying big bucks. All your vids tell you that producers go up first and gradually filters down to producers. I exited most producers a while ago and have watched them sink average around 20%since. Will look to buy back in a bit later perhaps when interest rates start falling.

Bad time to sell Shg and Cnr 888. Glad I immediately sold all Shg and put into clsk and mstr.

Interested how you think calibre could buy us and payback in a year. How?? What price are they paying for Cnr ?

You have been main cheerleader for £1 plus . That puts a £200 m plus price on Cnr. You think calibre are trucking that much ore in a year ?? And have that much capacity . They are increasing their reserves and bringing more on line constantly. Not withstanding the commitment to a mine at la India.

Concur it is a bad market to be selling into. If we were miners we could have been looking at first pour this year. 4 years later than many predicted but hey it is what it is. Hopefully most will recoup most of their stakes.

Polo, £60-100 m is realistic. Would hope nearer 100 than 60 but time will tell

I thought u would like that one 😜

Been a bit mad today. Coinbase has gone down.

Good luck whatever you do and of course dyor.

Hi Jack. Bitcoin headin towards all time high soon. Problem is after the halving arb will be under more pressure. A few weak ones will likely fail and arb has to be a possibility. I sold all my Shg and stuck it in Mstr and clsk . Clsk has done 170% in the last month alone. Sometimes it really does pay to be pro active.

Unfortunately freeshare have stopped dealing fractional shares which is annoying as microstrategy is nearly $1000 . Still ok in SIPP and ordinary trading acc . Because of hmrc apparently. Been keeping all crypto proxies in SIPP and isa . Microstrategy is the safest because apart from its business it buys and stores Bitcoin so is supported by Bitcoin price. Obviously miners have other factors not unlike conventional miners. They do however have the advantage of being leveraged . Imagine if pog trebled in a year what that would do for miners. That’s what has happened in Bitcoin and likely to hit $150 k next year . Once above breakeven the rises should be exponentially higher than Bitcoin itself as with gold producers.

I am in cryptos too but preferring to have usable proxies.

I am going very deep in crypto. Risky obvs but am up so much that it’s not a massive risk really and really see a bull market for another year. There will be a pullback for sure quite possibly a big one on the way but if you are quick that gives good trading possibilities.

Like you I am very sceptical about how this progresses but will wait and see how it transpires.

Apologies to non interested parties just trying to helpful to Jack and maybe one or two who may see possibilities.

Gla

Ron yes Cnr permits issued in I think aug 2018 gave Cnr 18 months to start construction. They bent the rules for Cnr by letting Cnr claim clearing some scrub constituted begining of construction even though it is described as almost construction ready. Personally think appropriation is unlikely the gvnt obviously have enough leverage to force a sale and possibly to their preferred buyer which I would for sure expect to be Chinese.

The gvnt have appropriated universities and property of expelled opponents but think a mining company is a step up but not impossible I guess

Surrey, fair to say the peeps that were spouting £1,£1.50,£2 all the way up to £3.94 were not worth paying attention to!

It’s been obvious for years that most predictions Havnt been well researched and were over optimistic in every way. Of course it was not welcome to have a more realistic view. It’s fat lady time now and various mitigating excuses will now ensue no doubt.

What was laughable was the 150k oz for this year that the messiah predicted to possible investors . Yes he knows his stuff simms lol! Yes I would certainly Hope over 30 p but could be a long wait yet for your cash. Not before q3 I wouldn’t be surprised. 3 months for completion for calibre b2 deal so imagine at least the same if not longer. That’s a long time when other assets are flying around us. being nearly 2 years for a sale imv wow and some were hoping for cash before last April.

Agree simms binding offer doesn’t stop a counter offer, I imagine though that if the two parties are both currently in talks that this may be done before disclosure of the best of the two bids but again doesn’t stop the lower one making a last minute increase. Fingers crossed

Personally I think it is probably hopeful that it is Mellon that is in the hardball position. This is a buyers market and Cnr need to sell. This is a ridiculously long process and as yet no concrete offer after 15 months. How anyone can try putting good spin on this situation is beyond me.Non binding offers are basically are not worth mentioning. We are told 2 parties are actually serious. Forget all the new companies coming through the door etc.

think too much kudos is attributed to mellon. 888 was lauding Bradda head when it had a bit of a spurt but has since lost 74% of its value not to mention the laughable production forecast.

Sold more last week so down to a modest 18 k which could have been £150k many years ago now Nero.

Put it in Mstr and clsk. Might well reduce lower yet and possibly buy back if it goes much lower.

Obviously,as yet there isn’t an offer progressed far enough to announce yet after 15 months. Shame we don’t have mellons 150 k production🤥