Member Info for Seingred

Nooke, I do not understand how shg having a m cap of £100 m leads you to say omi re rate?. Shg will be producing 100 k oz pa next year , have income, pay a dividend and also have a kenya resource further along than omi and throwing up extremely high grades. I fail to see how a soon to be half share in a very early stage explorer is in any way comparable???? They had three unsuccessful aproaches, at a m cap that some here expect to see with no defined resource . .

Ddd, yes good discussion, glad to see that you are using similar mothod to calc , the question is how much someone else values it. We arnt very far apart really and of course there will be leeway either way. All higher than 15 p so fine for newbies which although slightly galling perhaps for lthers is whats needed to get some forward momentum in sp.
As regards the "sleepy biden" sanctions, trump initiated sanctions, they are bi partisan and a republican incumbant ,particularly if he should come from florida is likely to be more agressive. What we do know from rns is that the offer of equity finance was pulled because of it.
Calibre have recovered , partly because of the move in gold price along with most producers. Calibre was particularly hard hit though. I guess if calibre continue moving up a paper deal for cnr could be attractive for them. I still think china may well be the ideal buyer with the way politics are heading. Buritica mine was sold in 2020 to zijin for $1 b with 11 m oz but financed to production and well on the way at the time and at the top of the market.

Gb, go to cnr site and the outstanding warrants and options are right there in front of you. About 36 m . Then add the ammount of shares that will be issued if a 4.2 m placing is fully subscribed then add mellons number of the beast new warrants and works out around 240 m fully diluted shares by my maths. Eps is worked out on fully diluted basis and so will a sale. Not sure that they have to be actually converted pre sale or just agreed and worked through in sale.
Ddd I am not sure that the construction route is open after the next raise. I do not believe cnr could raise enough equity to fund it after the impending raise.
I still am curious as to why the rns states that we are "nearly construction ready" when most here thought clearing scrub constituted construction in progress.?? Any idea why we are not fully construction ready?
Had a look over on the other channel. 888 reckoning that mellons £1 m should be enough to get to sale. In that case why didnt mellon convert some of his low priced warrants and/ or options instead of crashing the sp for a quick low price takeaway?
Ddd, I appreciate your workings. I dont believe you are going to see near $150 in nicaragua for pand p. There is a broad range due to jurisdiction(bad) and grade and size of resource(good). In the last presentation mc referred to inferred and indicated . He should perhaps refer to p and p reserves if that is the case and how many ounces that is. Personally I have revised down from 60 p to 50 p but it is guess work to a point but there are obvious parameters. I think you are being realistic and it is not good for 10 years but hey if it happens it will be better than the end result of many an aim explorer . Personally not minded to add. Will put in for more than my allotment and see what gives and see where the sp is after the placing.
God luck

888, are you deliberately trying to mislead peeps ? There is already almost 200 m shares on a fully diluted basis with a 4.2 m share issue imminent that will give up to 240 m undiluted shares , why are you quoting 159 m shares ? On top of that if you think anybodys paying £159 m in the present circumstances Then you obviously still havnt tried the caffeinebut good luck , it is approaching the time when crying de ramper really wont alter the harsh realities .

Mapp, real crooks have their cash in the caymans , virgin isle etc. I think too much port gives you gout , and triggers inflamation and migraines. Its a dangerous world out there . Steer clear of aim unless you really like a challenge.

Impy, I am looking to cash some in soon if we carry on moving up. Not sure what price yet , will just try and gauge the market . On the first move up a couple of years ago I kept raising my limit sell, originally around 9 p until finally selling some mid 30 s. I am liking the momentum presently but guaranteed there will be a fallback. I am happy to sell 20% and total de risk and buy back if a decent pull back if not run on free shares. Up 40% in last week, not a bad run at all.
Good luck

I am pretty sure mellon is one that has prophesied $5000 d gold , sure I seen peeps parrotting him on here too. Looks like he would rather call time though at worst possible time except if sanctions prove to be more restrictive than most here expect, it may still prove to be the best call. However citizens example does show there is still some appetite for construction projects in geo political hotspots.

Tester, they state in rns that £500-700 needed ror next two months explains the rush to finalise raise.and there is $300 k outstanding to pay on the $6.5 m mill that we have been paying storage on for nearly 2 years.
£4.2 m should be enough cash to see out next year if a sale int achieved in short term and costs are kept to a minimum. Of course if the issue fails to raise full ammou t it will be obvious that the reason for our participation is the lack of market sentiment. Any untaken allotments will be offerred elsewhere so one would expect it to be oversubscribed, which incedentally is what has been the case with every previous raise ,. Still a bit curious as to why the rns states "nearly construction ready"??

Chuck, nice steady forward movement on the sp front. Be nice to see the teens again.

Gb1, mellon is a hard nosed billionaire who unlike some knows when to quit and it looks like that time. If you are not also a tax evading non dom that can write off any losses in a flash I wouldnt hold out hope that he will treat any here any better than the Russian grannies he fleeced. In the recently posted vid mc mentions the inferred and indicated resource. $30 is what I see and possibly lower because of the geos and the nature of the sale.
Personally I would like to see equinox take out the whole company for paper , probably giving a better deal than any cash deal . Beaty knows the resource well and his geologist , just didnt rate the management. I hold equinox and would far prefer to be under Beaties stewardship than mellons. I also hold fm but since part of the raise is stated to pay off the remaining ammount on the $6.5 m mill It doesnt sound like they are busting a gut to me.
To anyone outside the company , with geo politicals going in the wrong direction , we are pretty much a distressed seller and it is definitely a bad time to sell .
Still thinking chinese are a more likely suitor with the o firms blessing and present money. Still interested to see where Randy Martin stands in the sanctions scenario with his many connections with ortega.
News of interest will move the sp but yet again we have hit a new base and many more shares. I would lower expectations but ok if you are newbie at 18 p hopefully.
Simms, well its been obvious for a lng time, well to me, that mc wasnt going to see his brucie bonus but he has amassed a couple of m cheap options over the last couple of years that may soften that one but yes never discount what bods may do , aim is mainly for their benefit.
A jv would probably be the best scenario in some ways but not sure how likely that is but you never know. But there is also the possibility that exit is the best policy as geo politicals could really do for cnr !

Slippery, yes makes sense. Wonder what hanans cut will be if yjey get a sale. Bound to be a percentage I imagine.
At a gold in the ground inferred and indicated price of $30 p oz
2.4 m Gives a sum of $72 m.
No doubt 888 has another way of looking at all this and we are on the cusp of £1 etc. Damn de rampers etc etc etc. Little chance of seeing 50 p or above in a sale scenario imv but. Newbies buying in now may well see a decent reward from 18 and 15 p but ltholders may have to consider sinking in yet more cash to get a chance of any profit and thats not guaranteed.
Simms, it is obvious why jimbo wouldnt want a secured loan, if it all goes pete tong , lender gets asset . Called risk aversion . much better to load up on 15 p warrants and get lower average to make a lowballer more palateable, unfortunately we dont get 2.5 warrants. Whats his ex buddy from rivington holdings got to say on the matter ?

Banard,deffo not. £1m is to keep the lights on while the share raise is worked. It states £500-700 k needed for next two months. I think it really is about time peeps stopped monty pythoning every situation. They are aiming to raise £4.2 m , I dont believe there is anything impending on the sale front unless mellon is deliberately supressing it before getting his last bottom feed. You would want to let peeps know if there was interest to support the sp.
I note that despite protestations on here that we started construction when we started clearing scrub, the project is referred to as nearly construction ready ??
Noting the funding pull due to sanctions , I also suspect that this benevolent act of sharing the spoils (lol) may also be that there is not much apetite for funding a stop gap placing in the market for the same reason. I also note that not only is 2.5 warrants ps very generous but generally warrant strike price is normally at a premium to a raise. This is why I didnt buy any shares in the low 20 s because this was always coming.
Valuation.
Currently shares 159m
Outstanding warrants and options around 36 m
£4.2m Raise inc loan conversion. 27m
Mellons warrants. 16.66666666
Total probable undiluted total. 238 m shares.
Using 888 minimum of £1 per share £240 m m cap .
Realistic £100 m mcap - 40 p
£120 m cap 50 p
Still dependent on a sale being agreed of course. If as has been alluded to over the years that mellon wont let it go cheap, mm, then what??

Gb1, will be interesting . If you happened to watch it last year when mellon forcasted 100 k oz production for this year you might treat it with a bit of a pinch of salt perhaps.

E l, I have no need for attention, the fatal mistake that you and some of the other attack dog posters here make is never considering any factors that may negatively affect your investment. But your supposing I want another opportunity to say "i told you so " indicates that perhaps I have given views not welcome by you and the other cancellors that have been correct and indeed I can imagine that 5 years of being derogatory to someones posting and seeing those views come to truth could be rather annoying to you .hard luck.
I have tried to encourage people to use common sense in evaluating their investment and I think put aside any dislike you would be hard pushed to point to anything I have said here over the last 5 years that hasnt been borne out. I said a couple of years ago that I would be happy with 70 p and generally derided , now even mr lion thinks 60 p? Thanks for the continual character attacks over the years , you can shove your indignant post right where the sun dont shine.
Fact is we are low on cash and a further raise will affect any *** packet valuations . Best to consider it imv .

Mckleckie, yes who in their right mind, if they have a buyer would Not mention already having interst in the rns? Or are you suggesting mc is deliberately keeping shtum to lower the price for the last top up of warrants in a sub 20 p keep the lights on raise? The rns is very similar to the 2015 strategic review, only difference is we wernt so low on cash that time. Since then the price has gone from mid 40s and nomber of shares has nearly tripled , mc has drawn around 1.5m wages and has a couple of m options . There was no buyer hovering then, just like the delay of fs this year wasnt at the behest of majors as put forward on here.
If this was anywhere near sold there would have been mention of it in rns , as you say even mc isnt that stupid. To encourage an auction you want to advertise interest.
E l, the tyre kicking may well be going on and you are correct it does take time. How much cash runway does cnr have at present?

888, oh so mc says its worth more than £1 . Thats just wishful thinking as he wants his bonus . The great mellon said we would produce 100 k oz this year. not always the best idea to believe everything you are told and use your own grey matter.

Tester, yeah, obviously various factors still affect that one of them being geo political . Grades and resource size etc
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357527-gold-miners-m-valuations-q2-2020
Quite a good article. I think around $30 for inferred and indicated .
G b 1 , agree if a sale happens you would expect it to be significantly higher than the m cap today. If/ when rns states concrete interst from parties we should then see re rate. I do think nicaragua geo politicals makes the scenario less attractive though. Time will tell but a decent chance of at least 100% from here on news .

G b, I hold calibre and other producers. Most producers have moved around 20 od per cent over the last month. Cnr are not a producer . The gold price movement is why calibre are up.nstill well down over the last 6 months tho.

Ace, probably the best way to view things. I only add when the price drops significantly. Sub 9 p looks likely. Good luck

C gamer, all valid points, unfortunately many of the issues were obvious if you looked with open eyes. Unfortunately this bb has constantly tried to stifle any questioning of the facts . Sometimes it is best to read between the lines and not take the word of the bod as gospel . Unfortunately this does appear as a distressed sale by a company with little cash in the bank and recent sanctions. I do wonder if there has been a recent change of approach since the recent sanctions announcement. After all, we were told about financing plans etc. There must be a reason why after all the plugs for the economics, after 12 years or more they are selling for less than double the sunk costs. Lets hope ortega doesnt throw a spanner in the works and have a preffered bidder. That last bit of land could still come into play perhaps.
All is not lost though for your 46 p . If a sale happens I would hope you should see that back.
Going to be an interesting