RE: Finncap11 May 2020 10:55
Here's a copy and paste from the Finncap morning note
COVID-19 rapid antigen test – update
Avacta confirmed that it is shipping Affimers to Cytiva and Adeptrix today with
the intention of developing a COVID-19 rapid antigen test for mass population
screening with Cytiva and a laboratory-based test to run on hospital mass
spectrometers with Adeptrix. The development programme for a point-of-care
rapid antigen test for COVID-19 is ahead of schedule, with the aim remaining to
have a validated and CE marked test in the summer.
?Newsflow. Further to its announcement on 22 April that it had generated Affimers
against the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, Avacta announced that it has selected,
optimised and manufactured sufficient quantities of these Affimers and will ship them
to its manufacturing partners, Cytiva and Adeptrix, today.
?Added potential functionality in the antigen test. Avacta announced that it has
generated Affimer reagents that can work in pairs as well as singly, both binding to
the spike protein at the same time. This allows tests that detect both the intact virus
particle and the detached spike proteins, which become separated from the virus
particle during the development of the COVID-19 disease and may be potentially
relevant in terms of monitoring disease progression.
?Next steps. Cytiva and Avacta will work to develop rapid test strips (lateral flow devices)
for the detached spike protein and for the intact virus particle, aiming to have prototype
devices in a few weeks and to have validated and CE marked the test for professional
and consumer use as soon as possible in the summer. Adeptrix will be working on a
similar timescale to develop a prototype test using its proprietary BAMS assay platform.
?Opportunities. As indicated at its preliminary results last week, Avacta is also in
discussion with other commercial partners to provide SARS-CoV-2 Affimer reagents
to develop and commercialise other forms of diagnostic tests to de-risk supply,
provide geographic coverage and to ensure that there is sufficient capacity to meet
the anticipated demand, which arguably could run into the 10s of millions of tests.
?Forecasts and valuation. We leave forecasts unchanged that exclude any potential
COVID-19 test revenues. We leave our target price under review as modelling the
potential impact of a COVID-19 antigen test with any degree of confidence at the moment
is not possible. Suffice to say, if Avacta is able to successfully develop a test(s) in the time
frame indicated (CE mark and launch in summer) the valuation upside is considered
substantial, as illustrated by the £250m+ incremental value created by Novacyt’s COVID19 PCR test. This excludes the value of its therapeutic pipeline of proprietary and
partnered programmes, which offer the prospect of delivering even greater value.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
