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https://www.theinformation.com/articles/waymos-big-ambitions-slowed-by-tech-trouble?jwt=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWIiOiJzYm96dXdhQGdtYWlsLmNvbSIsImV4cCI6MTU2NzA5MTM1NywibiI6Ikd1ZXN0Iiwic2NvcGUiOlsic2hhcmUiXX0.3n1FXgLRAvIthhKXzbp-KsP6qP3ycCgqHNwowTKnaxw&unlock=674bbeef09e0be73
"More than a dozen local residents who frequently encounter one of the hundreds of Waymo test vehicles circulating in the area complained about sudden moves or stops. The company’s safety drivers—individuals who sit in the driver’s seat—regularly have to take control of the wheel to avoid a collision or potentially unsafe situation, the people said" and
"The Waymo vans have trouble with many unprotected left turns and with merging into heavy traffic in the Phoenix area, especially on highways. Sometimes, the vans don’t understand basic road features, such as metered red and green lights that regulate the pace of cars merging onto freeways."
If we assume Fleet missed budget only because of delay and we normalise for this revenues would have been 36.1m. This is still below the initial guidance of 38-43m, so certainly agree that we really need more comfort here. Of the 78m budget for next year, fleet is 49m so the rest need to generate 29m (versus only 13m realised in 2018)
Think personally would add to positives 1) NTSB moving against steering wheel sensors 2) Ford is for mass production cars 3) that we are working with Fedex in aviation and lastly 4) still think Chinese OEM is Geely with Volvo based on (i) 6 customers comment Nick, ii) Zenuity, iii) we are heavily resource constraint so why work with a start-up)
Weird, initially thought this was simply the May recommendation but "we are delighted with the news that governments have formally recognized the importance of driver monitoring technology as a safety feature” seems to suggest otherwise. Hopefully, the next step is making it mandatory which is what we aimed for in May
Just went over my old notes, old news from Feb-18 but hopefully winning Toyota not completely off the table
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/autoliv-wins-toyota-global-contribution-award-300603883.html
Autoliv, Inc., the worldwide leader in automotive safety systems, has been honored with the prestigious Global Contribution Award, Toyota's highest award for suppliers.
This is the fifth time Autoliv receives the prestigious Global Contribution Award. The award is given in recognition of companies that for the past year has performed outstandingly in terms of superior quality, delivery, technology, innovation and cost improvement performance.
"We are both proud and humble to have been recognized by Toyota as a winner of the prestigious Global Contribution Award for the fifth time," said Autoliv's Chairman, President and CEO, Jan Carlson, when accepting the prize at Toyota's annual Global Supplier Convention on February 23, 2018, in Nagoya Japan.
You have the latest cash number and investopedia will give you the answer what cash equivalents are and that it is the "equivalent". Subscription to research tree will give you cenkos report and all answers in there around cash burn
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/investors-uber-self-driving-car-program/
Investors in Uber want to ditch the self-driving car program, burning cash and doubts about success.
Think the monitoring revenue is not correct, even assuming the 10,000 connected units were generating monitoring full fees for the year as $80 per month that is just close to $10m a year. According to Cenkos note monitoring revenues in 2018 were $4m and expected to be $16.6 in 2019. To make their projection that means selling 40,000 units, still think that is reasonable, mainly based on their pipeline (March) 1) A$35m at sign off and financial stages of negotiation. 2) A$53m in product evaluation with a 85% historic conversion rate. 3) A$81m in proposals 4) A$126m in early stage discussions. This should have improved based on Gen 2.0 launched, nevertheless think the company should really give some colour and update
On valuation people seem to make the assumption that this is our share price plus the usual takeover margin. However our share price is so low as we have a negative EBITDA and burning cash quickly, however, the value is significantly higher to a large corporate with a strong balance sheet. Think Cenkos made the point in one of their last papers, using a different discount i.e. 8-10% versus our 19% gets you in a completely different valuation zone already. On top of that you can question some of his assumptions as is AUD24 for a chip really what we expect or is that very conservative given we expect chip deals only and these to be closer to other companies in this space (AUD-50-60) Anyway do your own research but agree with Seeing2020 on that its certainly not a long shot
Seeing2020 my numbers are from Cenkos (Mar-18) and guess difference comes from the later than planned launch of gen-2. Actually never compared them in detail but might be interesting Am taking a long term view but am afraid this uncertainty will probably continue to put pressure on the sp. Actually suspect impact of any new OEM wins on the SP will be limited until people get further clarity on Fleet
So fleet was up 89% so AUD 17.2m, that is 5.4m below budget, this must be mainly the delayed units as total connected units were 10,000 which is in line with forecasts. Given they make this year about AUD1,000 per unit that means 5,500 units so the full delay of Gen-2 has been worked away. Happy about that
On Automotive am a bit more surprised, as they went from AUD6.9m in Dec-17 to AUD8.0m, so only earned 1.1m in the last 6 months of the year. That makes you wonder if they really do AUD15m next year in Automotive
So this combined with the lower margins as expected in fleet makes getting more info on how fleet is doing is key. Unfortunately, 300 customers doesn't help us much, historically they had about 50 units per customer but have a feeling with gen-2 this should allow them to target larger customers.
What would be great if we can roll out our chip in fleet earlier than expected, maybe am too optimistic but given it was mentioned in yesterdays announcement it shouldn't be too far away. This should be a real game changer
Lets see but hopefully language in previous RNSs like "Very" strong momentum in fleet and Paul getting his nice share package must mean things are going well. Hopefully management can make that clear quickly in a bit more detail to investors, and would really hope Jack is putting some decent money in this too