Member Info for Seeing-2020

https://electrek.co/2022/06/14/volkswagen-electric-sales-tesla/

"Seeing Machines is the global leader in one of the hottest areas in a very hot tech sector. It’s partnering with tech behemoths who are led by very smart people. They won’t pass up the opportunity to acquire Seeing Machines. Though they could well face competition from private equity players with a trillion dollars of dry powder."

Great blog by Safestocks

https://www.safestocks.co.uk/2022/06/15/takeover-thesis-maintained-as-seeing-machines-dominates-global-driver-monitoring-market/

The huge benefit we have as and when the markets recover is our clarity on revenue flows from Fleet recurring revneue and of course our automotive pipleline.

We have discussed automotive market share a lot on here over the years

Colin B has been consistent with his 65% share, as was Nick DF with his 30% share. Of course last week Nick moved to 50% market share of the revenue, whilst today CB has moved to 80% of the profit. These are huge movements by well respected people, nervous PI should get out an abacus and do some additions and compounding.

Colin B replying to a challenge about whether his 65% should now be 80%.
"In terms of units, probably not. In terms of share of the DMS/OMS industry profits, I'd say that is likely to be in the ball park"

I think he has grown attached to his 65% slide, his words sound a lot more positive to me.

"Magna International has a proven track record working with Mobileye, and dominated #ADAS front camera designs for many years. Integrating the #IR optical path & vision processor inside the rear-view mirror, with #KPIs that meet 2023 Euro NCAP, For Safer Cars OSM testing is a non-trivial task. Magna has chosen Seeing Machines."

"Other technical considerations also apply here. We can see the role of OMNIVISION and the #OAX4600 DMS #ASIC with #Occula processor as a roadmap to improve the performance/power metrics in future versions of this design. Qualcomm, Magna and Omnivision are global players who bring significant expertise in establishing global DMS platforms, including those in #China."

"Euro NCAP's testing of "owl" and "lizard" behavior is very clever. It further focuses onto "drowsy" and "visually distracted" driving. "Driver impairment" and "cognitive distraction" could be included from 2025. The roadmap is thus about assessing human behavior rather than monitoring drivers. Seeing Machines is the clear leader in #humanfactors behavioral science"

Brock, are you seriously asking people to support your view based on you watching some promotional videos?

As a poster called Brock said just the other day "you can't make statements like that without some figures and not be accused of blatant ramping."

The irony

Phil, one mans delusional is another mans foresight.

Colin Barnden is the industry expert, he is on record for years that SM would win 65% of the addressable market inc China, maybe he a had a feeling SM would eventually find a way to open up the China market or maybe his 65% is due an increase.

The broker you mention has 30% ish excluding China, even though Paul mentioned China opening up months ago, they also have no increase in Fleet following the Shell win and other progress in Europe on Fleet, they have zero for BDMS, pretty much zero for Aviation, and they admit to using a discount rate that's too high.

I remain in the 75% region for market share and have seen nothing this week that lowers that option, if anything I feel slightly less weird than previously

I will give said broker the last word.

"With the company well financed and markets benefitting from strong regulatory backed demand and limited competition, we continue to see significant upside to our 20.0p valuation and reiterate our Buy recommendation. "

Paul and Nick DF discussing the China Market.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/seeingmachines_investorupdate-china-drivermonitoring-activity-6940898810676027392-YLfs?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=android_app

Darren, I find it hard to be sorry for him, as he flips and flops and makes claims he can't back up, he is a CEO of a listed business.

Is he being honest? He still states in this video they are "market leader" he has never once updated the markets via an announcement for his delayed or cancelled design wins that never got to SOP.

He is lucky not to be eating porridge imo.

BB on Mobileye

https://www.eetimes.com/we-really-need-to-talk-about-mobileye/

"Long gone is the euphoria of the 2017 Mobileye acquisition. Mobileye’s lead in ADAS is now under attack, particularly from Qualcomm and Xilinx. It has no coherent roadmap for driver monitoring leading into occupant monitoring and no offering whatsoever to compete with Qualcomm and Nvidia in digital ****pit and in-vehicle infotainment (IVI)."

BB, now that is a good question, I had looked and hard to find a clear answer.

Seems at IPO ($5bn) in 2014 they had 60% when Intel bought them in 2017 for $15bn they had around 70%.

I expect it will fall in years to come as the QC design wins translate into market share

Sch, I agree that Cenkos needs to update their FY23 forecast and provide one for Fy24, I suspect they will do that when we have results for FY22.

Things to add to their "calcs"
- BDMS "material uptick"
- Sales for the new "direct to manufacturer" model Guardian
- their model assumes a lower % in auto than Nick mentioned

Then lets see how FY23 looks

Numptypi, good point well made re Toyota. If we are engaged with 5 (1 + 4 in talks) that must include big T

The key point for me was he saw the market share as sustainable, ie we would maintain 50% or even go higher. That's immense and doesn't normally happen

Compare that to Tesla, their market share of the EV market is falling every year as Ford and VW, BMW and others improve their offerings. Mobileye is reducing also as QC make more progress in automotive.

Look at the Lidar providers many of which have huge valuations, lots of competition probably 50-60 players. No one will get anywhere near 50%, 10% would be a stretch.

Bonzo, I am sure he was managing expectations, I thought 80% when the line was 30% so I still think 80% now.

However lets take 50% at face value, companies dream about a 50% market share

- Apple have 34% of the smartphone market
- Coca-cola has 31% of the soft drinks market
- McDonalds has 21% share of the fast food market

Terry, how many times did Brother Roy tell us that the shift to electric had come at just the right time for SM, as there are more new models been launched than ever before, he was right...

very likely I would say Chris

The collaboration will see Waymo retrofitting trucks with its AI-powered driving software operating on Uber's logistics and network infrastructure. Shippers can tap into the Uber Freight service to connect with truckers willing to deliver their goods across the country. Vehicles running the Waymo Driver software will be able to complete part of the journey autonomously, although human drivers will still need to be present.

A few things that were new to me in yesterdays interviews

Competition
- The interviewer whilst asking a question to Prudent Nick - "I expected more direct competition"

Japan
- in serious talks with 2 more OEM
- talking to a further 2 OEM

Numbers
- 340k units through production

BDMS
- "renewed interest from BDMS from around the world, next 2 years material uptick in BDMS"
- "high margin, not over just beginning"

Fleet
- Shell progressing well, worldwide sales to Shell location and Shell partners
- new opportunity in Europe. selling Guardian to truck and bus manufacturers

That's just what I noticed after watching 11 times, anyone spot anything else?

Mobileye IPO "above $50bn"

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-mobileye-ipo-moves-ahead-despite-wall-street-woes-1001411586

The fleet update in the video update from Paul is also very positive

a few key points
- Shell = selling into a wide range of Shell locations and with Shell partners "significant volume of the next 2-3 years"
- Europe = new market selling to bus and truck manufacturers, so they are compliant with NCAP

This sounds like a new business model to me
- not OEM built in with long lead time (auto model)
- not selling to operators to fit onto existing fleet (Fleet model)
- New market, selling to Truck and Bus manufacturers, so they then sell their vehicles with Guardian fitted and so are compliant.

Very clever