Member Info for Seeing-2020

I guess less excited than some others about naming the OEM's

Key Data for me
- Orderbook of won work A$395m (at last update).
- Number of cars on the road 447k (as at 30th June 2022)

Once both of these are growing, I am happy to make an educated guess on the OEM, if the Japan win was Subaru or Jane Fonda doesn't worry me

Cenkos Jan 21

The conclusion of the OmniVision license is highly positive news as it confirms the strong business case seen by OmniVision to invest in the development of an ASIC that is based on the Seeing Machines DMS accelerated by the Occula® neural processing unit. With the development costs of an ASIC for this likely to be around $10-20m, the development time around a year, and an expectation for and OmniVision to price its silicon competitively (we expect Seeing Machines to be targeting the same per vehicle software royalty of US$8-10/vehicle), we can conclude that OmniVision needs to sell multiple millions of units just to payback its investment. Furthermore, an attractive business case over say a 5-10 year lifetime is likely to be built on an expectation for millions of units per annum.

Cenkos Jan 2022

Seeing Machines and semiconductor partner OMNIVISION have announced the automotive industry's first dedicated driver monitoring system (DMS) and occupant monitoring system (OMS) application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC). It combines an image signal processor (ISP) and is powered by Seeing Machines' Occula® Neural Processing Unit (NPU). The OAX4600 is capable of high resolution processing up to 5 megapixels (industry is at HD or 2MP) with RGB-IR, cyber security, compliance with Automotive Safety Integrity Level (ASIL) advanced (B) safety standards. It is based on a deep level of partnership with ecosystem vendors and the solution is ideal for space-constrained automotive integrations, such as in rear view mirrors, and will be available in the second half of this year. OMNIVISION has been working with Seeing Machines for over five years with the companies announcing in January 2021 the world's first dedicated DMS ASIC with an integrated AI NPU, ISP and DDR3 memory (called the OAX8000).

Comment: We believe this news is highly significant as it further raises the bar from the competition in automotive DMS and increases the likelihood of greater adoption of Seeing Machines software globally. The ability to perform accurate DMS and OMS with one 5MP RGB-IR sensor and a low cost and low power ASIC processor in a small package such as the rear view mirror is, in our view, one of the most compelling DMS solutions in the market. This is because it is both highly cost effective but also easy to integrate into existing cabin designs across a wide range of vehicle types. However, the rear view mirror is a challenging area to operate in with difficult optical angles requiring highly refined algorithms and intensive vision processing to enable automotive expectations of availability and reliability for a primary safety system. It also requires very low power consumption due to the limited space and limited ability to dissipate heat. The low power/heat performance in this new product is achieved through significant hardware optimisation with OmniVision including the use of AI Machine Learning (Neural Processing). With Qualcomm’s Snapdragon ****pit (with Seeing Machines DMS embedded) looking like a very strong contender to win good market share in higher end vehicle infotainment systems, and Qualcomm announcing this week new digital ****pit wins with Volvo, Honda, and Renault to complement its existing customer such as GM and BMW. This new OmniVision solution is likely to provide the most complete and cost effective DMS/OMS solution in the industry for non-embedded solutions for mid-range vehicles, we are increasingly confident of the strength of Seeing Machines position to win more RFQs and new OEM nominations. This will in turn lead to highly significant software royalties throughout this decade, the value of which we believe are far from being reflected in the current valuation. We iterate our buy recommendation and 19.5p valuatio

Well I would say someone called ColdFishPie suggesting a CEO should be eating ColdFish sarnies is irresponsible ramping of chilled seafood.

His section on rerate is worth a read -

Share price to re-rate

I think that such news, when confirmed, could be the catalyst for a huge re-rating in its share price, given the fact that:

It is likely to involve an upfront payment that could be significantly larger than the one it received (US$17.5m over 4 years) back in September 2015, when it signed a licensing deal with Caterpillar.
The ongoing license revenues, even if low double digits would likely run into tens of millions of Australian dollars each year.
It will absolutely confirm that See’s pilot monitoring provides crucial safety benefits in yet another transport sector, thereby giving chip manufacturers another reason to acquire it in order to diversify their revenue streams. It’s a model that can be replicated in other transport sectors; most notably marine.

Great article from Chris Menon over at Safestocks

https://www.safestocks.co.uk/

CEO Paul McGlone turned very bullish in a recent promotional video interview with Proactive Investors in which he stated that in aviation he is committed to licensing out SEE’s technology to one or more partners: “We are going to be working through significant Tier 1 avionics partners to deliver our product to market. We have created the demand there so it’s a very strong proposition for the partners that we are talking to,” he confirms.

It surely cannot be a coincidence that after downplaying the significance of aviation in a prior interview McGlone has now become much more bullish. Certainly, my sources are confident of success and so I’m optimistic that an announcement on a licensing deal is ‘IMMINENT’.

As to who it is, the obvious candidate is Collins Aerospace (part of Raytheon Technologies) with whom it is already working closely.

For me it is so different to CAT in 2015, why?

- Mining (DSS) was our main source of revenue in 2015
- We needed cash in 2015
- Took many years to replace the mining revenue
- 2022 Aviation is a very small % of our revenue
- Brokers put no value on the Aviation business
- We are well funded, best part of A$20m higher than analyst projections at end of FY22
- We have no competition in Aviation
- Upfront element will make us profitable in FY23
- Margin growth in Auto and Fleet will sustain our profitability

I think Collins is more likely for a license deal than CAE, my view is we are involved in this Qantas deal as a supplier of eye tracking to CAE.

However in the most recent interview Paul talked about a license with "Global Avionics Tier One" Collins fits that description as per the RNS extract below

"Seeing Machines, the advanced computer vision technology company that designs AI-powered operator monitoring systems to improve transport safety, announces a collaboration agreement ("Agreement") with the world's largest Tier 1 Avionics company, Collins Aerospace ("Collins").

The Agreement positions Seeing Machines to work closely with Collins to jointly market co-developed solutions across the Aviation industry to deliver its eye-tracking technology solutions to Commercial Air Transport, Business, Military, Rotary Wing, General Aviation and Flight Training customers to address improved safety and efficiencies for both pilot training and flight operations."

We of of course had a win via L3 (that division subsequently bought by CAE) with a "major Australian Airline" wonder who that could be?

12 December 2018
Seeing Machines Limited
Collaboration with L3 to deliver eye tracking for major airline's Full Flight Simulator

Seeing Machines Limited (AIM: SEE, "Seeing Machines" or the "Group"), the advanced computer vision technology company that designs AI-powered operator monitoring systems to improve transport safety, is pleased to announce that it has partnered with L3 Commercial Aviation, a leading provider of airline pilot training solutions, to deliver integrated eye tracking capabilities into their Full Flight Simulator (FFS). The first device with this functionality will be delivered to a major Australian airline in 2019.

MrBB, that would be a good idea. Either meet at a local coffee shop or the doors with probably open early.

History suggests that the keyboard warriors don't show up, generally a decent bunch.

No, we might, it's possible, there is a chance, strong language from our CEO on Aviation

"either license to one or more parties, that's the path we are down"
"working through significant Tier one Avionics partners to deliver our product to market"
"We created the demand, very strong proposition for the partners we are talking too"

Feels right for aviation to land before our London event, things work like that sometimes

I look forward to shaking his hand in London to congratulate him, might even stretch (and it would be a stretch he is 6ft 5 and I am not) to a high five or a fist pump.

The message from todays video from the actual CEO who knows what he is talking about is "margin growth"

Why?

Automotive
- "change in revenue mix from NRE to Royalties"
- "NRE is low margin, Royalty revenue 90% odd"
- "A$400m in booked business, that will hit the accounts from now until 2028
So high margin revenues of A$400m over next 5 years or so, even the mathematically challenged amongst us can work out (400/5) * 90% and see where this is going

Fleet
- "demand for Guardian increasing across all regions"
- "materially higher margin"
why
- Focus on "enterprise level customer" (large global, direct so higher margin)
- Truck and bus manufacturers, for after manufacture product "this profoundly changes the margin mix in Fleet also"
- "large direct customers, materially higher margin"

Major, nice schooling and broken down and explained in easy to understand chunks, I assume G now understands his mathematical shortcomings and will issue an apology earlier misleading comments.

I will use that example when doing some maths work with my 7 year old later.

Think he would say "learn some basic maths you big galah"

Good interview with Paul, adding some additional colour as ever

Guardian
- "demand for Guardian increasing in all regions"
- "supply chain issues resolved"

CFP, surely as an investor you will attend to increase your knowledge

By the way, you managed to mention 2 people in your last post and spell both of them wrong, lol.

Great opportunity to meet the team in person.

Recommend it to any serious holder, it will increase your knowledge

Super cleverable team

Data published today by Seeing Machines (https://lnkd.in/eBHtWmX5) continues to confirm positive forward momentum for the #automotive #driver #monitoring #systems #DMS market.

Cumulative shipments of vehicles at start of production #SoP featuring Seeing Machines DMS #software totalled 447,000 as of 30 June 2022. For the period Jan-Jun 2022, shipments were about 197,000, compared with about 130,000 for the period Jul-Dec 2021.

Updated guidance from Smart Eye is likely to be provided in its 2Q22 results, scheduled to be published at the end of this month. Direct comparisons between the two companies that is focused on the hard metric of vehicle production numbers will finally be available. Going forward, quarterly updates may be provided, and are certainly needed to communicate the positive trend of DMS to the wider investment community that is mostly oblivious to developments.

The data confirm that DMS (and the growing trend toward occupant monitoring #OMS or interior sensing) is the key safety function. Mitigating #distraction, #drowsiness and #impairment may not be as S3XY as Autopilot or "Full Self-Driving," but it is the route that regulators across the world are taking to reduce traffic fatalities and to make human drivers into safer drivers.

Autonomy, #robotaxis and #lidar may grab the headlines and dominate investor interest, but the much more mundane process of understanding human behavior as it applies to accident risk in the form of DMS and OMS is where the design-win and production action is. Autonomous operation in privately-owned passenger vehicles is nowhere close to reality.

'Seeing Machines eyes more recurring revenue
Seeing Machines (SEE), the developer of driver monitoring systems used in cars, buses and trucks, said it expects revenue to grow by 15 per cent to A$54.2mn (£31.6mn) for the year to 30 June, in line with expectations, and to finish the period with higher-than-expected cash of A$59.3mn.

The company said its driver monitoring system is being used in 24 different vehicle models by 5 manufacturers – a 246 per cent year-on-year increase. This will help to change its sales mix over time, to one where it earns more higher-margin recurring revenue, it added. Annualised recurring revenue grew by 20 per cent year to $20.7mn.

Its after market business also continued to grow, with its Guardian system installed almost 40,000 vehicles – a 25 per cent year-on-year increase – as more commercial fleet operators monitor truck and bus driver behaviour. The company’s shares rose by 5 per cent in early trading to 6.38p. MF'

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/seeing-machines-expects-significant-growth-across-its-divisions-fxcgmo9zmpaolyu.html