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As you said Billy that assumes that all stock has been sold so using your model, assume 1/3 is still in store display cabinets, it’s $54270 per day on average of 360 selling days per year, $19.5 million in sales. That’s with almost zero mainstream marketing which we know is going to change to.
Based on your modelling again then if you almost half the number of trading days the sell rate is probably nearer 1.7 per day per store. So from March-May when the 10,000 store count is hopefully hit then 1.8 x $4.5 per unit x 10,000 stores is $81,000 per day.
Again I stress I’m not agreeing with your modelling but just correcting it.
500 stores end of April, 153 trading days to 30th Sept = 76,500
1,000 stores end of May, 122 trading days = 122,000
500 new stores end of June, 92 trading days = 46,000
1,000 new stores end of July, 61 trading days = 61,000
2,500 stores end of Aug, 30 trading days = already counted in
So using your modelling (not saying I agree with it as v simplistic) it should be 305,500 trading days. Also sales is nearer $2.7 million I believe (out for a walk so difficult to confirm)
500 stores end of April, 153 trading days to 30th Sept = 76,500
1,000 stores end of May, 122 trading days = 122,000
1,500 stores end of June, 92 trading days = 138,000
2,500 stores end of July, 61 trading days = 152,500
2,500 stores end of Aug, 30 trading days = 75,000
Your modelling is also wrong. Line 1 500 stores = 76500 trading days, but then you’ve used that 500 stores again in every other line as they are part of the 1000 in the next count etc. That completely over does the total number of trading days.
That doesn’t mean they have had trouble supplying existing stores. It could mean sales are low but if photos prove cabinets have stock then supplying them hasn’t been an issue. Some stores will have sold well, some maybe not so, some not at all. But there has never been a comment about failing to supply existing stores from the company.
You’ve never worked in logistics have you Vas. Vans are used for the local deliveries mainly. The long distance travel is normally going to be on a pallet or two on an artic from one distribution point to another. A truck full of lots of people’s goods not just Chill (especially as Chill is a small item). Did you think that a small van drives all the way from the manufacturer to Florida for example dropping off at every store we are currently supplying?? Lol!!!
That’s what I love about you, you’re so bloody thick but actually don’t realise so time and again make an arse of yourself.
Exactly DR. The solution could be as simple as the distribution network guaranteeing that they have the logistics in place to meet the target - ie they have recruited the drivers/warehouse staff etc. No exactly rocket science is it. They haven’t told us as we are shareholders not employees or directors but they wouldn’t have still confirmed it unless they were fairly confident they would get at least very near the target.
Why can’t they have a solution? They know what happened to the sp when they hit 2500 stores rather than 3500 stores in July. They have the perfect opportunity to say that the target date has slipped but have said the opposite. Again who to trust the BODs with back up from some heavy hitters in Viridian, etc or a failed travel agent turned troll????
DR, it’s the same major distribution deals to AATAC and SF stores I believe but they must have a solution to the logistics problems that have been plaguing all retail distribution outlets. I mean have you been to Harrod’s food hall recently???? ;)
No what’s boIIocks is your constant deramping.
Sales haven’t dropped 75% as Q1 included the initial stocking of the 2500 stores whereas Q2 looks to have been restocking those stores because as far as we know the store count hasn’t increased much over the period.
As far as the hitting the next approx 7500 stores by end May latest (12-15 months remember), then have you seen what they have put in place? Have you seen their plans for this? No of course not. Nor have I of course but I’d rather put trust in the directors, Rhino, Viridian, etc than a failed travel agent troll who wastes hours of his life posting sh ite 20 times a day on a share he is supposedly over 60% down on because he sounds really trustworthy, competent and business wise.
Night
Evening DR
I have been around years and the amount of trolls that come and go, often spouting massive boIIocks , who sadly don’t leave before anyone has noticed they have arrived - is amazing - i,e no effect). Therefore, I am more than slightly influenced from past experience on this one. However, Yes, i hope they make no difference other than to plague BBS.
Hamish, I think they can over buy at certain times once all info is out otherwise it’s insider trading. Not sure if/when we are at that point buy definitely understand your sentiment. Would be good for the shareholders to see.