Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
he talks in terms of share price. he sees the potential for settling in a 2-5p range this year, 10p in 2020 but a take out could be at any time (and he sees a sharply increased risk of this on the back of this recent CHK1 news) in the 5-10p range if we get bought before the end of the year. he is of course talking his book but has been adding in recent weeks in the low 50s and has said he would participate again if they need to raise though he doesnt see that need as he expects a milestone injection before the end of Q2 latest which would fund tox studies for tyk2 to end of year. he tells me not to sell before 5p. he also expects SRRA to trade up to $20-25 in next 18 months. all pretty bullish! S
Hi Belhus. Just spoke to him.
He's one of that strange breed of investors who doesn't obsess (unlike me) on every share price move. Whilst he is surprised (more than disappointed) at the drift lower, he remains confident that he has invested well. He has participated in placings over the years including all the way down to 0.25 earlier in the decade so has a pretty good average. He still expects a milestone in Q1 which rather surprised me but the bigger news he expects in Q2. I guess the fact that he treats the move from the placing price to here as noise and said he expects >2p by the end of summer.
Confirmed that very very unlikely that more work will be done on Vega 3..that ship has sailed.
Conclusion
Call me a party pooper but I do not see much short term support for the sp . Not clear what news we can expect before the Interims come out in March.
Ps
We need to note the substantial increase in Director remuneration. Was £412k last year up from £278kin 2015/16 and of course will be higher this year because of the new recruits. At one level I am relaxed about this as I thought John and Tim underpaid for a long time . If they get good deals for 1801/2, the NED's will have earned their keep
PPS
There is a Quoted Data report dated last month. hxxps://quoteddata.com/research/sareum-holdings-tyking-the-boxes/.
This has probably mentioned before but has rather passed me by. Very thorough presentation of relevant data and good page on stock catalysts. Their comment that they had cash till 2020 , which is true if they take on debt but no idea who would lend to them. To me unless they get SRA milestones or TYK licensing the last date they can do another equity raise is September next year-but more realistically in July before the break. QD emphasize the point that the somewhat cash strapped Sierra could play silly buggers and delay work on SRA 737. The point was made at the AGM that SRA does not have a direct contractual relationship with SRA and it was on the tip of my tongue to ask what if any leverage CRT as contractual counterparty has but did not. The report says R&D costs of £1/2m to get to pre IND stage-ie broadly in line with the £900k per compound quoted by Mrs A in 2805,
PPS
If you think SAR sp is low look at the sp of Sierra.at $1.11, as I post.
This will not be the most complete report as I have temporary hearing issues and missed quite a bit. As always corrections welcome.
A much better tempered affair than last year and Board hang around afterwards and the two new members introduced themselves and are prima facie good additions. There were 7/8 shareholders there ie enough to generate questions.
All resolutions easily passed but voter turn out was only 7.4pc - in fact hardly surprising given the lack of institutions in the register .To put it into context in the past fortnight I have been to two AGM's - CWR and BLTG where the turnout was 63% and 67% respectively. This was bought up by several shareholders as it is every year- we were told because the board structure has not met guidelines then institutions have not invested. I have no doubt that many institutions have used this as an excuse and time will tell if now that the Board meets the QCA requirements we get more institutional support. One shareholder who had participated in a previous placing and who had been sounded out on a placing done months back was miffed that he had not been asked to join on the placing that was done- The Chairman reported that this was bought to them unsolicited on a take it or leave it basis and they took it.
Most of the questions were on 1801/2 as indeed is right and proper given that this is where the management is focused. Hopefully someone can post on the technical issues discussed, which rather escaped me ( and interesting that John who normally does not have many questions to answer was far more active than Tim). I did not get any clarity as to when they hope to announce a deal. Kicking myself for not asking how much these two programmes are likely to cost, and if one is more expensive than the other. Also I assume it is unrealistic to expect two people to advance solo this ground breaking work- even if they are as hard working, smart and experienced as Tim and John. Any participation of SRI will be solely on Lupus...should have asked given SRI has done all the biology work and SAR the chemistry how SAR has access to the biology work done. My understanding is that if they are there meet their 2020 target that the bulk of the cash spending will be in calendar H2 2019. I have to confess I was rather dopey as I did not ask about availability of UK Government Funding.
On Aurora I regard any money in as a pleasant surprise. I guess we can go on the basis that they did not solve the toxology issues and I have no feel if there are many companies who have the detailed knowledge to do this and if so Aurora could be on interest to any such company.
No real mention of Chk1...understandable given the very clear resume in the AGM statement. The way it was described there really made me focus on the fact that my reading is the no milestone likely by mid Year at the earliest when of course the money will be running out. Let's hope I am being too gloomy.
Confirmed that very very unlikely that more work will
Belhus. No I didn't go due to other commitments but there should be a write up from Cerrito and timbo003 on the ADVFN site in the coming hours or days. Whilst the drop is disappointing it comes amid a backdrop of a general market pullback and at a time when people often takes out funds out to pay for Christmas etc. In SAR this can mean that relatively small sums can knock the bid liquidity quite hard. As far as I'm concerned nothing has really changed. I still expect the next CHK1 milestone in Q1 or at the latest Q2. I was encouraged by Nobbygnome over on ADVFN who suggested the company is "clearly undervalued" as he has been a source of level headed and realistic commentary on SAR for many years. My contact, who participated in the placing is very optimistic and that can only be based on what he heard. Do for now I'd try to ignore day to day share price noise enjoy the holidays and if you have some spare cash get in on an opportunity to get stock from weak holders at a discount to the bigger boys. I've ribbed my mate about the fact I bought some yesterday at 0.55 at a discount to his placing allocation! I think we will see the price stabilise and rise in 2019. S
Probably worth remembering that the next RNS if it relates to a CHK! milestone, will likely come at Noon UK time rather than 7.00am as it would be announced by Sierra. So as well as checking at 07:00 keep an eye on the midday hour... S
On the placing, I think I said before that if you wanted to subscribe you have to go through the broker. The logistical costs of approaching all shareholders would render raising GBP700k valueless. Some of the placing WAS taken by investors by the way. My understanding/view is that bigger investors are looking at Sareum but they require more progress on both CHK1 (milestones) and especially TYK2 progression. But I think some would already have mandates in place ready to invest if/when satisfactory progress is made. This is why when it finally happens you need to be very circumspect about how quickly you exit (all in my opinion). I'd bet many posters on this baord would lighten up considerably on a move to 1.5-2p. That could be a big mistake if the the news is substantial enough. DYOR. S
What will make Sareum rise?
Well clearly part of the answer to that is understanding where the seemingly never ending supply of stock is coming from (extra to placing stock). There must continue to be a legacy of long term holders stranded at much higher levels from the periodic spikes most notably Feb 2011. This will continue to be an important supply dynamic on any future sustained rise.
Clearly positive noises from Sierra posters and presentations on CHK1, associated successes/proof of concept in TYK/JAK have yet to have any meaningful effect although one could argue the counterfactual might have left us lower than we are. So it's pretty obvious that hard cash is the only thing that will propel us higher.
That hard cash could come from 1) milestones on CHK1, 2) some form of TYK license, 3) new investors, 4) disposal of Aurora/FLT or 5) a takeover.
1. Whilst the Board are probably aware of the triggers and the scale of payments that Sierra would have to make, they probably have little visibility on the timing [I would expect very tight lips at the AGM on this]. All the indications from Sierra suggest that the next milestone could come in Q1. Size, looking at the original deal and industry equivalents would likely be between $3-8mn or GBP 2.3-6.3mn. Given the expansion of the scope of CHK1 trials recently announced we could see a succession of small milestone payments.
2. Clearly more work is being undertaken on the TYK programme and Sareum's need for cash versus the desire to run the programme as far as possible to maximise license value is probably to a large extent dependent on outcomes on point 1. Crucially we own all of it.
3. This is likely what Parker has been working on and may well be triggered by the milestone trigger or substantive developments on TYK. This is a viable question for the AGM.
4. In my view this will either be quietly shelved or is worth very little.
5. Could come at any time.
Views anyone?
S