Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
It was inevitable that they would place, perfectly logical. By my reckoning they have GBP 841k as of today so this will restore the balance to around GBP 1.64mn. This means that assuming cash burn of £135k we will have just over 0.5mn in the bank by the end of June 2019 though we may by then have also earned a milestone and possibly an RND tax credit. The discount is absolutely typical of Sareum, nothing unusual, and as far as I am concerned it enables to move on and focus on TYK2. S
nice try but futile. it's far far too expensive to raise offering the masses for the sum they are likely to be able to raise. I have participated in placing in the past but via their own stockbrokers with whom i held an account. Also he could not possibly reply to you personally giving any indication that a placing is forthcoming as that would breach insider trading regulations. If you are serious about subscribing, and by serious I mean c GBP30k or more and are prepared to be subject to trading restriction before the placing is announced call Ms Noyce at Hybridan. Otherwise sit back and await the inevitable. S
There can surely be few AIM companies with such an asymetric risk profile as Sareum. Whether by judgment or by sheer luck, this TYK2/JAK1 autoimmune/cancer/cancer immuno target we have seems suddenly very hot. In 18 months to 2 years few AIM shares can expect to be 0p, 0.80p or >10p. DYOR. S
The updated figures give me projected cash balances as follows:
As of last night, cash in the bank: GBP 951k, end Oct GBP 812k, end Nov GBP 673k, end Dec (half year) GBP 534k, end Jan 19 GBP 395k, end Feb 19 GBP 255k, end Mar 19 GBP 367k.
The going concern statement reads:
"The Directors anticipate that Sareum Holdings plc, the Company, will secure equity based financing sufficient to support the Group for the foreseeable future. Sareum Holdings plc has a track record over a number of years in raising such finance which underpins the Directors' confidence that sufficient finance can be raised. In the event that insufficient funds are raised, and in the absence of further milestone payments from the Chk1 project or other licensing income, planned expenditure would be reduced so that the existing cash reserves would last for the foreseeable future, being not less than one year from date of these financial statements."
S
Now I've read it in detail some points which stood out to me:
- Sareum is eligible to receive payments from the ongoing development and commercialisation of SRA737 as it advances over the coming years, and the progress reported provides added confidence to the Board that such payments will be forthcoming as milestones are achieved. Sierra remains well funded to deliver key clinical milestones with SRA737 through 2020, with $125M cash (as at the end of June 2018).
- TYK2: autoimmune diseases and in cancer: strong candidates exhibit potentially best- and first-in-class properties, respectively, in these indications
- TYK2/JAK1: Suitable for once or twice daily oral dosing, Good toxicological profile (in assays to date), Straightforward synthesis
- TYK2: The Directors will continue to review the potential higher value of a later-stage licensing deal versus the requirement for any extra funding. [Note: to me this says they are confident they will receive CHK1 milestones soon]
S
but nothing to scare the horses there. Indeed rather more positive, rather more cash than i was expecting. I like the mention of recent preclinical deals and the size of potential upfront and milestone schedules. We may avoid a placing if we get (or know we are getting) the next CHK1 milestone before year end. All looking rather positive. S
I suspect no fresh news just the financials and a rehashing of previous research announcements. As I expect cash to be now comfortably sub GBP1mn (end June in tomorrow's figures probably GBP1.1-1.3mn) they will need to raise. That may be in train to accompany or follow the results. Key will be how much they can raise and at what discount. Some visibility on potential milestones would help alleviate some of the inevitable weakening in the price at the time of a placing. Also any sign of firm pharma interest in TYK2 would help. I suspect not much new and a drop to 0.55-0.65 region. S
the parker spouse purchase was in early july and the placing is likely to be next week or soon after so comfortably distant from the purchase. as for the amount raised, they raise what they can given investor appetite and the price discount. it's a delicate balancing act between getting as much as possible with too deep a discount which risks undermining the core share price more than necessary. as thoth suggests we are entering a new era where we have the prospect of some genuine significant income from CHK1 milestones but Parker has previously stated at a past AGM you take funds when you can. as my calcs suggest they now need funds so will take in what they can without doing too much collateral damage.
Thoth. On B by my calculations they had between GBP 1.180mn and 1.320mn at end June 2018 (the number we will see on Monday).
As of end September ie this coming Sunday that is down to GBP 845k - 950k. It turns to overdraft sometime in March or at best April according to my figures. So absent income from milestones or other sources (license/take over etc) they will need to raise before the end of the year (and that's cutting it fine) so a raise next week or before the end of October seems favourite to me. I'd expect between 0.5-1.0mn at 0.55-0.60p. If they don't raise we can assume they have sight of an income event crystallising relatively imminently. S
Oh yes. I remember 2 distinct booms. One which enabled me to buy a new VW Golf and a polo for my mum and the 2011 event which basically enabled me to retire in my mid forties. Hoping for the third to be the best! S
Aber I don't understand your point. If Hybridian have stock on the offer that are absorbing buys that is how the market works but there must be a holder who is looking to offload. If, as you have suggested, they are "manipulating" stock to supress the price that surely is completely contradictory to the objective of achieving good demand (and a good price) for a placing. I don't buy your argument (excuse the pun). The lack of a rise in the price reflects mostly one thing. There are not yet enough buyers interested or they suspect that to progress TYK2 along the path outlined by Tim this morning will require considerable funding perhaps outside the scope of that realisable by Sareum itself through market funding. That is why if you read the RND carefully particularly the final quote from Tim, it is very clear that it is now an invitation to a pharma to invest. Given the sudden interest in TYK2 even in mainstream media I find it hard to believe that firms with TYK2 compounds in their pipelines would not look to protect their interests (both of own compound failure and from competitors stealing a march) by looking to take an option in Sareum or a more direct investment. Finally, I thought the statement added some interesting detail on the immunotherapy potential of the molecules in certain cancers. This again is a very hot area of cancer research. The company is now set up to see CHK1 possibly produce the funding for TYK2 or for TYK2 to be licensed for a good upfront (high double digits). And unlike CHK1 Sareum owns the full rights of TYK2. Exciting times. A word used by Tim this morning: "Both candidates have produced EXCITING results in preclinical disease models and we believe present valuable opportunities for licensing and/or further development."
And also, perhaps a drafting slip, but the same 11 September statement contained the line,"The Company will seek a licence partner for this programme [Aurora/FLT3] while it concentrates its research resources on its TYK2 preclinical development programmes."
At this stage only the autoimmune candidate had been selected for pre-clinical. Yet they use the word "programmes". To me that suggests imminence. S
I think it will be quite soon. That video was in March the statement on 10th September stated,"The company is also completing its assessment of further dual TYK2/JAK1 inhibitors for the potential treatment of certain cancers and/or as a back-up to SDC-1801 and expects to nominate this candidate in the near future." and a day later,"Candidate selection for a distinct selective TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor targeting cancer indications is in the final stages".
To me that says weeks not months.
S
Maths.
In 2011 when the share price briefly spiked to 4.75p there were 1.4bn shares in issue. Today there are 2.745bn in issue. That equates to an equivalent 2011 spike price today of 2.5p. And that was on a research update not a "transformational" company event. So a PYC move to 30p (albeit it was only briefly there) is very unlikely as it would value us at GBP 823mn. A more realistic price rise, in my view, would be into the would be in the 3-7p which would value us at between GBP 82-192mn. Of course news can cause spikes to briefly silly levels as with PYC so above that upper range might happen though would unlikely be sustained for long. S