GCM Thoughts7 Jun 2024 14:50
Occasionally I write notes on GCM, especially at the moment with the games that seem to being played to remind myself why I’m invested, and thought that I would share them with you.
• The price has now been held between 5p to 6p for about a month.
• The Market Maker SCAP’s is the MM that imo is controlling the price on the bid and offer.
• To start with I just thought he was the MM selling the placing stock, but I actually think that’s gone on too long now, especially with the volume that we have had traded!
• Also when on days like yesterday he had the chance to sell at a lot higher price, or at least the placing price of 6.5p, why was the SP controlled and once again kept in the range of 5 to 6p, despite the massive buying volume?
• Yesterday there was well over 5 million traded, of that about 1 to 1.5 million was at full ask at 6.25 later in the day
• Yet just before close about 250 / 300k of sells at the end of the day dropped the price back below the 6p AGAIN!
So what games are being played.
• Is it just the placing stock being sold into the market and I am just overthinking the whole thing.
• Is the price being played in some way so that the bigger fish can enter (how they do this is beyond me) but we do know that this project is worth billions, not millions so if someone is in the know then they will be making every effort possible to get hold of shares.
• With the fundraise being so big, has that kind of played into their hands and made the price easier to control.
• One thing is for sure, the volume that we have had since February has been MASSIVE and the highest that I personally have ever seen in all the 15 odd years of being invested.
• I am making an assumption, but all major shareholders still seem to be holding.
• Again I am making an assumption, but surely with this volume, if someone has been building a position, (because I do honestly believe this is more than just Pi’s trading), they now potentially would have quite a large position, so the fact that nothing has been declared, could it possibly mean that someone is not declaring their position yet can’t do so because it would be too sensitive?
• I did at one point think, have we got a major shareholder selling, but I have actually discounted that possibility as not happening.
• Then obviously yesterday we had the major news in the budget saying “3. Coal extraction as substitute energy” and as mankiniparty reminded us, there is only one place that they can start to do that!
• And now for the final MASSIVE point, which to me is probably the most important, is that although PM Hasina has had plenty of opportunity to do so, especially after her Energy Minister, Nasrul Hamid has repeatedly and openly recommended doing open pit mining at Phulbari, unusually we have not had one single word from her saying anything either way!
God knows what’s really going on behind the scenes but imho, the fact that we are b
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