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In conclusion, we must say Bangladesh does not need to hurry for decarbonization of power and energy sector. It must explore and exploit its natural resources (coal, natural gas) and utilize this adopting state-of-the-art less polluting modern technologies.

https://ep-bd.com/view/details/article/MTAzODk%3D/popular-article/title?q=bangladesh+does+not+need+to+hurry+to+achieve+net+zero

The Chinese envoy said that he did not find any tension between China and India over the Teesta project, but wanted to see that the project start very soon for the benefit of around 30 million people in the country’s northern region.

https://www.newagebd.net/post/Foreign%20affairs/239259/breakthrough-likely-in-china-support-for-bangladeshs-forex-reserve-envoy

Good news ….

https://today.thefinancialexpress.com.bd/first-page/china-ready-to-work-with-india-on-teesta-project-yao-wen-1720117557?amp=true

I’m guessing that with modern technology and the solar park, Phulbari can now be classed as clean energy 🤔

https://www.businessinsiderbd.com/bangladesh/news/41243

This part made me laugh out loud…. 😂😂😂😂

“They, however, cannot indulge in such activities during office hours, according to the draft ”

You all know how much time and effort that I have put into GCM, and also that I am very positive that eventually we will hopefully get the green light, so please don’t think that by writing this post I am being negative because I certainly don’t mean to be, but it is starting to concern me a little that so many are now expecting to get the green light at the China meeting next week.

Yes, we may get some positive news, or even maybe an indication that positive news is on the way, but so far the facts are that we know that several MoU’s are going to be signed, and that PM Hasina has said openly that she wants China to look at projects in the South of the country in order to develop that area. We also know that the Chinese are not happy about India speaking to PM Hasina about them doing the Teesta River project, so I am sure that China will be spending time on ensuring that they are given this project and not the Indians.

Now to the crunch and my worry, although obviously there will be other areas and other major projects that I am sure will be discussed and agreed, as yet we have not had any leaks in the press or any mention or hints from any politicians about the fact that Phulbari open pit mining is on the agenda. I know that we have had some really strange trading patterns, and looked to be controlled in a very tight range recently which has raised many questions, but with the potential value for this project, if others really thought that we were going to get the green light next week, do we really think that the volume would be as low as it has been over the last couple of weeks…. 🤷‍♂️

As I say, I am not being negative and would be absolutely over the moon if we finally got the green light after all these years, but just wanted to calm expectations, so that if we don’t have any major news, we don’t have a major sell off….

I hope you take this post with the intent that it is meant…

Positive2021, and your point is??

The Payra thermal power plant has resumed operation at full capacity after seven days of maintenance work. Currently, the country has an installed power generation capacity of 27,162 MW, with the majority produced by gas-fired plants (12,216 MW). Somoy. Production was halted at a 660 MW unit on June 24 for scheduled maintenance. “It went back into production on Monday (July 1), three days before the schedule,” its superintending engineer (operation) Shah Abdul Hasib said.

The plant was built in 2013 on 1,000 acres of land at Dhankhali in Kalapara upazila of Patuakhali, with joint investment from China and Bangladesh.

It has been supplying electricity to the national grid since 2020. The 1,320 MW plant meets 10 percent of the country's electricity demand and requires 12,000–13,000 metric tonnes of coal per day.

Currently, the country has an installed power generation capacity of 27,162 MW, with the majority produced by gas-fired plants (12,216 MW). Coal produces 6,604 MW, while the country currently imports 1,160 MW.

The government plans to generate 40,000 MW by 2030 and 60,000 MW by 2041.

https://en.somoynews.tv/news/2024-06-24/TPD90sA6

If the object of those who are controlling these shares at the moment is to confuse us, they are doing a bloody good job, because I honestly no longer have a clue as to what’s going on 🤷‍♂️

600k delayed from the 28th at 5.73, so I’m guessing was a buy

This i believe started out as $5 billion, but has now increased to $7 billion

$7b loan agreement to take centre stage

https://businesspostbd.com/national/development/7b-loan-agreement-to-take-centre-stage

Investor007, unfortunately it’s been a while since we have had an SP of 68p mate, but either way, it still shows what massive potential we have here if we get the green light

Whether you agree or disagree with the figures that AI has come up with, and what ever way you look at it, one thing is 100% fact, with the green light, the share price will be worth many times more than 5 / 6p

Jeezzzzz I wish I’d never started this thread now 😂😂😂😂

Part 2

Summary

Increase in Production: From limited production to 10 million tonnes annually.

Revenue Increase: Annual revenue projection of £500 million.

Cost Efficiency: Lower production costs due to open-pit mining.

Profit Projections: Annual profit of £300 million.

Valuation Multiples: Conservative P/E ratio applied to projected profits.

Share Price Calculation: From £0.05 to potentially £10, indicating significant upside.

This financial projection demonstrates that the development of the Phulbari coal deposit can significantly increase GCM's market value and share price. Detailed feasibility studies, market analysis, and strategic execution are critical for realizing this potential.

This is the last question I am going to ask AI --

How are you working out that the Phulbari coal deposit via open pit mining method if given the go ahead via GCM has a value of 500m added value to the present 15m, how can we get a share price from 0.05 to £5

To understand how the value of the Phulbari coal deposit can increase from £15 million to £500 million and how GCM's share price can rise from £0.05 to £5, we need to consider several financial and operational factors. Here is a detailed analysis:

1. Production Capacity and Revenue Projections

Current Valuation: The current valuation of £15 million likely reflects limited or no production. This is often based on existing small-scale operations or exploratory stages.

Open-Pit Mining Projections: If the Phulbari coal deposit is developed using open-pit mining, the production capacity can increase substantially. Let's assume the deposit can produce 10 million tonnes of coal annually.

Revenue Calculation:

Market Price of Coal: £50 per tonne

Annual Production: 10 million tonnes

Annual Revenue: 10 million tonnes × £50 per tonne = £500 million

This significant increase in production and revenue justifies a higher valuation.

2. Cost Efficiency and Profit Margins

Cost Efficiency: Open-pit mining is generally more cost-effective than underground mining. It allows for the extraction of larger volumes of coal at a lower cost per tonne.

Cost Calculation:

Cost per Tonne: Let's assume £20 per tonne (due to economies of scale and efficiency)

Annual Production Cost: 10 million tonnes × £20 per tonne = £200 million

Profit Calculation:

Annual Revenue: £500 million

Annual Production Cost: £200 million

Annual Profit: £500 million - £200 million = £300 million

3. Investment and Development Costs

Developing the Phulbari coal deposit will require significant upfront investment. However, the high initial costs will be offset by the long-term revenue and profit potential.

4. Market Dynamics and Demand

Global demand for coal, especially in developing countries like India and China, remains robust. Stable or increasing market prices for coal can positively impact revenue projections.

5. Valuation Multiples

Current Valuation: £15 million

Current Share Price: £0.05

Future Valuation with Open-Pit Mining:

Projected Annual Profit: £300 million

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Assume a conservative P/E ratio of 10

Projected Market Capitalization: £300 million (annual profit) × 10 (P/E ratio) = £3 billion

6. Share Price Calculation

Current Market Capitalization: £15 million

Current Share Price: £0.05

Current Number of Shares: £15 million / £0.05 = 300 million shares

Projected Market Capitalization: £3 billion

Projected Share Price: £3 billion / 300 million shares = £10 per share

Given the information provided, reaching a share price of £5 per share is plausible with successful project development and operational efficiency.

Again I asked the same AI program - How are you working out that the Phulbari coal deposit via open pit mining method if given the green has a value of 500m added value to your present 50m, how can we get from 0.05 to 5 ?

This was the answer ..... but please understand, I am not for one minute saying its totally correct, but I trust AI with their calculations a lot more than I do my own lol

To understand how the value of the Phulbari coal deposit could increase from $50 million to $500 million through the adoption of an open-pit mining method, we need to analyze several key factors that contribute to the overall economic value of a mining project. Here's a step-by-step breakdown:

1 Projected Value with Open-Pit Mining:

Open-pit mining significantly increases production capacity. If Phulbari coal deposit has estimated reserves of around 572 million tonnes and can produce 10 million tonnes annually, this scale-up can drastically increase revenues.

2. Cost Efficiency

Current Operations: Smaller-scale mining operations, such as the existing Barapukuria mine, might have higher per-tonne extraction costs due to limited economies of scale and less efficient mining techniques.

Open-Pit Mining: This method is typically more cost-effective for large reserves because it allows for the extraction of a greater volume of coal at a lower cost per tonne. This increased efficiency can result in a substantial increase in profitability.

3. Market Prices and Revenue

Assuming the market price of coal is $50 per tonne:

Current Scenario: 1 million tonnes × $50/tonne = $50 million annually.

Open-Pit Scenario: 10 million tonnes × $50/tonne = $500 million annually.

4. Import Substitution and Economic Impact

Bangladesh currently imports a significant amount of coal, which is costly. By increasing domestic production, the country can reduce its import bill, saving foreign exchange and boosting the local economy.

Hypothetical Financial Projection

To provide a simplified financial projection:

Current Operations at Barapukuria :

Annual Production: 1 million tonnes

Market Price: $50 per tonne

Revenue: $50 million

Open-Pit Mining Operations:

Annual Production: 10 million tonnes

Market Price: $50 per tonne

Revenue: $500 million

Conclusion

The increase from $50 million to $500 million in value can be attributed to:

Increased Production: Scaling up from 1 million tonnes to 10 million tonnes annually.

Cost Efficiency: Lower cost per tonne through open-pit mining.

Market Demand: Stable or increasing demand for coal.

Import Substitution: Significant savings by reducing coal imports.

This projection demonstrates how developing the Phulbari coal deposit through open-pit mining can multiply its value by a factor of ten, moving from $50 million to $500 million in annual revenue. For more precise financial modelling, detailed feasibility studies and market analysis would be required.

You could not make it up!!

https://www.daily-sun.com/post/755193

## Share Price Estimate….

Given the current market cap, let’s hypothesize:

- *Current Market Cap*: Suppose the current market cap of GCM Resources is around $50 million.

- *Post-Approval Market Cap*: Adding the $500 million project value, the new market cap could be approximately $550 million.

### Summary

If the Phulbari project gets approved and adds substantial value to GCM Resources, the share price could potentially rise significantly. Based on the simplified hypothetical scenario above, the share price could reach around $5.50 per share. However, this estimate is highly speculative and should be validated with a detailed financial analysis and consideration of current market dynamics and investor sentiment.

Investors should consider consulting with financial analysts or advisors who can provide a more accurate and detailed forecast based on comprehensive financial models and current market data.

I obviously know that this means absolutely nothing unless we get approval and obviously could / will change depending on the terms that GCM agree on, but while its quiet and for a bit of fun as well as out of interest I put the question into an AI program,

“If given approval from the Bangladesh Government, with the current shares in issue, what could I expect the share price to reach”

The answer was ..

# Estimating the potential share price increase for GCM Resources upon approval of the Phulbari coal mining project by the Bangladesh government requires considering several factors, including current market conditions, the scale of the project, investor sentiment, and historical performance of similar announcements. Here’s an analysis based on available information:

1. *Project Valuation and Impact*: The Phulbari coal project is significant, with a projected development cost of around $1 billion and potential to support power generation of at least 6,600 MW for over 30 years. Successful approval could substantially increase the perceived value of GCM Resources.

2. *Historical Market Reactions*: Historical data indicates that announcements related to major project developments have led to significant share price movements for GCM Resources. For instance, the announcement of the $1 billion contract with PowerChina led to a 40% surge in share price

Estimation Approach

To estimate the potential share price increase, we can look at a range of scenarios based on previous market responses to major news and the potential future earnings and cash flows from the project.

1 *Current Share Information*: As of the latest data, let's assume GCM Resources has approximately 100 million shares outstanding (exact numbers would need verification from financial statements or current market data).

2 Historical Price Movement: If the recent 40% increase from the announcement is a baseline, approval from the government might lead to a more substantial increase, considering this would confirm the project's viability and future revenue.

3 *Project's Added Value*: Analysts typically use Net Present Value (NPV) or similar valuation methods to estimate the project's contribution to the company's overall value. A detailed NPV calculation would consider future cash flows, discounted back to present value. For simplicity, let’s assume a conservative scenario where the project adds a net value of $500 million to the company (this is hypothetical and would require a detailed financial model).

Major power plants shut down

BPDB officials report that units of the country's four major coal-based power plants are currently offline or partially operational. The first unit of the Adani Group's power plant in Jharkhand was taken offline for maintenance during the Eid holidays due to reduced demand and is expected to resume production on July 5. The second unit, with the same capacity, has been producing only 370MW-375MW since Tuesday due to technical faults.

Additionally, one of the two 622MW units of the Payra Thermal Power Plant in Patuakhali, the country's biggest coal-fired electricity producer, underwent maintenance starting on Tuesday and is expected to resume production on July 2. Maintenance is also underway on a unit of the Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant in Rampal, reducing its output to 800MW-810MW from its 1,234MW capacity.

The third-largest power plant, SS Power Plant in Chattogram, with a capacity of 1,224MW, has a unit offline for maintenance, producing 600MW-612MW on average. The 525MW Barapukuria (BPDB) Coal Power Plant in Dinajpur is generating less than 150MW.

https://businesspostbd.com/power-energy/gas-crisis-maintenance-issues-cause-nationwide-power-outage