Secret Broker thoughts of Lloyds10 Jan 2023 20:23
My colleague in our Edinburgh office has shared the following:
Lloyds is generating a high net interest margin (possible 3% in Q4) and has sizeable provisions on its balance sheet already which means that it is fairly well positioned for the forthcoming recession. Further provisions are likely to be taken but given the company’s high capital generation (at the moment) these should be fairly easy to accommodate without stretching the bank’s currently very strong capital ratios (Core Tier one capital ratio is >14.5%)..
Return on tangible equity is forecast at 13% but the company is trading on 0.9x BV which suggests value.
Given the company is a pure retail bank and dominates the UK mortgage market with a 20%+ market share what happens to house prices, house market activity, re-mortgaging, mortgage rates and unemployment are key factors. Lloyds, themselves, says unemployment is the most important factor as it is the biggest driver of defaults,. A hard landing would take the stock price down, whilst the stock price can whether a soft landing and will go up if a recession is avoided altogether.