SUFC, LTI, Hard, Livestock. From a friend5 May 2023 19:54
Lloyds first quarter numbers were fine. Net profit came in higher than expected, but the quality of the beat was marginally disappointing with Net Interest Income a little light, but costs and impairments better than expected. Return on tangible equity was good (in what is usually a seasonally strong quarter). Core Tier 1 capital was in line with expectations at 14.1%. Tangible book value per share rose 7% quarter on quarter. Management’s earnings guidance for the full year is unchanged. There was a small deposit outflow which, at present, is not an issue. The structural hedge has a tolerance for a far greater deposit outflow, but given current market-wide deposit flow sensitivities we will monitor this closely. It can be argued that Lloyd’s deposit base is greater than it need be, but it may be prudent for management teams across the sector to start to increase deposit rates more meaningfully to counter the risk of more significant outflows to money market funds. We anticipate the Net Interest Margin to come down a little as the year progresses, but again this should not come as a surprise. The mortgage book continues to perform well, but there is a headwind to future margins as newly written business is lower margin than that written during covid but, again, this is well known.
With a NIM>3ppt, a loan to deposit ratio of close to 100% and strong capital generation, we continue to hold the stock in our guidance portfolios and anticipate a further sizeable share buyback program to be announced before year end. However, it should be noted that there is a risk that the size of the buyback program could disappoint if the coming economic slowdown is deeper than consensus currently expects.