Member Info for sdow

Yes, much more economical (for C4X) to do this & allow Polar, II’s etc to buy up PI shares at 7p than do a (fairer) premium tender offer at 12-15p.. then in a few months any remaining PI’s will one morning receive an email saying 750m new shares have been issued at 5p to a new VC and cornerstone investors (polar etc)… no chance to participate.. now 1bn shares free float and you have been diluted 4x

No no - i’m firmly in the “shoulda woulda coulda camp” but tends to happen when a stock gaps down 50% .. fortunately I only had £10k in but still frustrating.. they have £20m cash so unsure why they chose now to dump the SP.. especially without a tender offer..

Nope.. they'll just accept £25m from a new VC for half the business.. they may let existing II's participate on similar terms but PI's will not have an opportunity to participate..

I'd prefer they kept the cash for new & follow-on investments.

Best case the buyback would temporarily shift the price up a penny or two..

Perhaps, but the more likely scenario is the current minority shareholders will be diluted 20x by the new private investors.

The Board should resign. Stock down 50% since their decision to delist. Value destruction for shareholders.

They tried to go private back in 2020 but was voted down. I can’t see how a board can recommend this option right now given the price action on C4X and RedX - obviously the insiders could just scoop shares at 2p from panicked PI’s but previously ANIC did offer to tender at a premium to NAV. I reckon there’ll be class action lawsuits w.r.t. some of these recent privatisations without a tender offer.. FCA should definitely take a look.. managenent sold this investment as a vehicle for retail to get exposure to an evolving field so they should honour that. The plan seems to be to sit on hands with the £30m cash and wait for price to recover to NAV type levels - I think with some progress towards commercialisation this year then we could see that.. maybe Meatly?

They can't exercise warrants until end of June at the earliest. The warrants are "bermudan" exercise style rather than standard American. So quarterly exercise dates only... JUN, SEP, DEC, MAR.. not "whenever you like"..

Doesn't sound to me like they'll be paying a dividend

"The Board and the management continue to re-evaluate the stability, liquidity and solvency of the business, including its dividend recommendation, in light of significant funding and regulatory uncertainty. The Board also carefully monitors the MOEX trade re-opening and the developments related to National Settlement Depositary - Euroclear operations which are critical to delivering dividends to Polymetal shareholders trading through MOEX (approx. 22% of issued share capital as of 1 March). The ability to distribute dividends to all shareholders in an equitable way will be one of the factors in finalising the dividend decision"

1. Market seems especially illiquid past couple of weeks - e.g. down 3% today on £375k of traded notional. I think there was one day with an even larger % decline for less notional traded.
2. People trying to front-run the warrant exercises @ > 28.5p despite this not being able to happen until Dec 31st at the earliest..
3. General PI panic stations.. front-running selling momentum.. general panic and jumping on bandwagons..
4. Wide spreads - the bid/offer spread is 0.5p (2%).
5. Suspicion regarding the new Agronomics JM venture.. can't remember the name but doesn't bother me.. most II's cannot invest in AIM due to mandates so I can see the motive for it..
6. Suspicion re: recent NAV versus market price being high.. again.. given the assets are accounted for at cost price and are highly speculative in nature I don't see how this can be much of a concern.. if you know what you are getting into that is.. essentially we are invested in a fund taking educated punts - only need one or two to hit the big-time to win big.
7. General market sell-off in meat/dairy alternatives... Oatly etc..

Personally I added more last week... but that's not always been a great idea..

Yes, i.m.h.o most likely an error since exercising an out of the money warrant (a contrary) does not make economic sense to the holder.. he/she not only paid 28.5 for something they could have bought on the market for 27'ish pence but also lost the ~2 years of optionality / time value...

Interesting also to note that the warrants can only be exercised at the end of each quarter.. so Dec 31st is next available exercise date - so they are not "American call" warrants.. more like "Bermudan"..

See RNS below and under the "Warrants" section... interesting because I guess that means we know we won't be "diluted" with the (up to) 250m new exercised shares until then at least..

https://www.investegate.co.uk/agronomics-limited/rns/proposed-fundraise-to-raise--50-million/202105111040012307Y/

DYOR

Anyone have an updated NAV for this share? It was 5.62 end of September so maybe 6.5p now...

Current price is x2 NAV so guessing this ramp means another dilution is coming soon?

... at least now we are getting some proper equity research coverage given Anglo are involved.. UBS don’t like us.. Barclay’s do like us.. Jefferies do not believe in the product.. were they not once House Broker’s..

I suppose the proof is in the pudding.. with the AAL interest it will flush out any other suitor’s... if there are none then probably a sign this stock is and always would be a dog! A lot can happen over a weekend though.. i’m definitely hanging in there.. highly unlikely AAL will pull/reduce their bid given they will want to keep certain staff members incentivised (at least for a transition) so unlikely to devalue CF’s holdings are they?

... hedging... as I said all along.. Citadel et al.

Head Honcho was at Highbridge for 7 years.. https://oasiscm.com/about-us/management-team/

Jeez... what a muppet I am.. I started the thread because I was genuinely concerned (a bit) about the guy - I guess waiting 30 days for him to post probably wasn’t the speediest way of raising the alarm..

Hmm.. strange... for all I know all you guys are the same person ;-) weird... you are kidding yourself if u think bb influence a FTSE 250 stock... AIM maybe... If the guy was a total fraud then he probably would’ve made more money in McDonalds rather than posting here for a decade and reading endless pdf’s to make a “couple of hundred k”..

Weird - just don’t get the bb ramp/deramper thing.. ultimately the price is set by the big boys - we’re talking about a share trading 600k notional per day on average... you are better doing something more profitable with your life.. like i do for instance...

Overall i’m well up on this share - other than the bond issuance i traded it well - dilutions were well telegraphed (i.e. it was always clear the equity dilution was going to be huge) and buying in the day before new shares was issued (the low) was my game... i also got in at 8p.... out at 10p (day it dropped from 11p) then in at 2.5p and out at 4ish... day of crash.. anyway.. so probably in a better position than most but still think it’s a shame if it goes to the wall... it probably will though... i had £5k in at 3.7p as a punt but whatever... been much more fun trading the LLOY/BIRG pop last week for serious size and then just rotated into BP at £5 for the Brexit/FX play... out at £5.50

Anyway - glad GK maybe made enough to trim his pony/rat tail.. i’m sure our paths will cross one day..ECR Minerals AGM or something ;-)

Scotman - have to say i’m surprised re: your views on GK. Are you being tongue in cheek?

I was under the impression the pair of you were quite pally? Meeting up at AGM’s etc.. but perhaps i’m wrong?

Interesting development if you don’t in fact rate him - have to say i’d never noticed any anomosity between you both - I thought you were both SXX diehards to be honest, been reading all the posts back to the Fram, Trooper days.

I liked his reasoning (most of the time) but maybe only because it reinforced my only line of thinking (so possibly dangerous echo chamber?)

Only 2 things I know about this share is to sell immediately whenever there is a suspicious drop a few days prior to "expected news" - it is leaky as hell.. and then always grab some shares for the dead cat bounce around 9.30am/10am the day of a crash.. but don't even think about holding overnight - it'll then tread water for the next x months..

..as if by magic.. shortly after my post the FT releases a "not entirely bearish" article re: Sirius... "UK small-cap miners hold promise for investors"... I wonder how anyone at FT is able to write anyything remotely positive when Bryce Elder is there to slap them on the back of the head.. he really hates SXX!

Well - I guess "big trading" is subjective.. and trust me.. weighing the value of anyone's posts by their historical number of posts is a reverse indicator. No offence, but other than a few GK posts - everything else posted on this board has just been noise.. somehow I've been reading it on m commute home most days for the last 7 odd years ;-0