Member Info for ScottAJ

Hopefully, they give us an update when they announce the R3 workover is complete - they should be making serious bank at these prices. And with 60% of production too! Either R3 complete or Columbus Development well completion, which should be in a month or so.

Kape got a little shout out in The Spectator. Apparently one of the picks by Jonathan Davis.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-stamp-duty-solution-for-the-chancellor (under the Maverick Markets section)

Scott

NewKOTB
Don't forget gas trading at 56p/therm and hedges in place for at least 40p/therm.
Question - what do you think the BKR production will be (ex R3) will be at the end of this year? As in, how many barrels/day will we be getting 100% of? I think over 2020 it dropped ~3k bbl/day, just wondering what they expect the depletion to be.

Scott

upomega - They mentioned a progressive dividend, so I'm pretty confident that it will be increased. Even on the back of this bad year, I'm predicting it will be raised to at least 4p, possibly higher with strengthening gas prices.

When will it look cheap to you? When they update the earnings at the end of the year? Think you might have missed the boat by then. They are expecting EBITA to nearly triple last year ($5.8M - > $16.1M) for the first half of the year, with full-year expected to be in the range of $35-38M. And I think there is probably a good chance of an upward revision/surprise due to remote working (if you read their trading updates).

As we don't have the profit yet, we can work with the EV/EBITDA ratio instead. Taking the lower end of their given range we get: 311 / (35 / 1.33) = 11.8.

That isn't bad for a growth technology stock in a growing area (internet security). KAPE is profitable, has demonstrated organic and inorganic growth and has backers with deep pockets willing to help out. Once the market settles a little and we get our half-yearly update, we will comfortably see new highs.

ScottAJ

Hi garethbrierley19,

Looks like you made the right call! Of course, you could always rebuy, pocket the difference and then get the dividend! ;-)

ScottAJ

garethbrierley19 - surprised you sold out now when you could have got a 3 pence dividend for holding for another 2 weeks? Unless you think the price is going to crash in that period of time?

It is the old market adage, "Buy the rumour, sell the fact". Looking forward to seeing what the actual figures are. I suspect that they might beat their guidance at the end of the year. Now that would make it move!

I think the main thing should be building a cash balance. I'm sure that they have enough drilling programs lined up to spend it on without thinking about acquisitions.

Unfortunate timing mullard. Good RNS and up 20% today. I hate it when that happens to me (which it does all too frequently!)

GL with PHAR.

Hi NewKOTB,

I'm wondering if we will get an update to the cash build until September. We currently know it up until the end of May ($112m), so one more month on top of this isn't going to set the SP on fire. Also, going through the summer lean period, the cash build will not be as great (maybe $5-7m/month) as we were below our hedge price. The lead up to winter (which we didn't get BKR for in 2018) coupled with the increase in share in BKR is much more exciting. Without a deal (or div) we could be sitting on close to $200m in cash by EOY. If that doesn't get us above where we are, nothing will!

ScottAJ

I'm wondering if they won't get a new CEO until South Disouq is running and the SP starts to recover. At these prices, any CEO would have to get a *boatload* of stock to come on board. No deals planned, South Disouq seems to be (finally) getting done - do we really need one right now?