Member Info for ScottAJ

It's been on a bit of a slide, since the buyback stopped. Think it will start to march up again once it resumes? Might be a good entry point before they announce it again (start of Dec).

It could be due to the instability in the markets with gilt yields rising and the pound dropping too.

The way the share price is dropping now, I expect that someone knows something and it isn't good.

Any idea what is behind the drop? Just the end of the buybacks? Or is there a weakening of the BTL market unreported yet? Or do we have exposure to the vehicle lending fiasco that is impacting Close Brothers?

In any case, we should get an update on this when the results are announced in a few months.

Yeah, it had already arrived this AM when I checked. Shall see if the price rises at all as people's DRIPs kick in.

Does anyone think that the EPL will ever go away? It is permanent now. At least until production falls off a cliff in 2-3 years when nobody maintains/develops anything in the North Sea.

I don't think so. I was a holder when KAPE was taken over and delisted. The major holder launched their takeover offer when they had 54.8%. You need more than a simple majority to take over or delist a company. I don't remember them making an offer before that either.

I keep adding small amounts, but the price keeps dropping. I am starting to wonder if the market knows something I don't! I think it is a well-run, profitable business. I think when the next set of results come out, they will resume the buybacks!

Isn't a lot of the Tailwind production hedged a lot lower? Found out after the merger, natch...

I think that a condition of the license being granted is that they maximise the output of any development. So it is all or nothing - if they throttle production (without a very good operational reason for doing so) they could risk having their license revoked and then being excluded from future licensing rounds. They can however choose not to invest any more capital into a development stating not economic to do so and let natural decline do the work - I think we are already starting to see this. Also the fact that the government is not getting much interest or money from licensing rounds should be a wake-up call, but nobody will ever accuse this government of being too observant.

Just have to make sure that their holding doesn't get too big, as it gives them too much control. Or they could just take over. I'm still not happy with how KAPE ended up going.

Definitely a gift at the moment! Picked up a few more. Let's just hope this isn't the start of a full-blown banking crisis!

As someone has mentioned before, you can't do this - you have to produce to the best of your ability. No reason you can't do a *hell* of a lot of maintenance over the winter though!

You know this sort of realistic and practical talk doesn't win votes. Life isn't fair, which is why I wouldn't be totally surprised if this "conservative" government went along with it.

Hopefully, they throw in a small trading update/comment along with the results. Having an inkling of how well we are doing with the gas prices where they are will make all the holders here smile. :-)

Don't be too hard on yourself Barhut. In an alternate universe, Hanut came in and we're all looking at 20p in the rear-view mirror.
I think that they should carve off $1-2m from their drilling budget for a buyback just to generate some interest/movement. Buyback vs 1 well in Morocco, I know which is going to get the MCAP to move up.

I don't think they'll double the dividend, they'll just slowly walk it up over time, saving up cash for an acquisition. I would be expecting maybe 4.5p if the gas prices hold (and they should be hedging fairly solidly at these levels too!)

The company looks to be making good money now, which management has shown a few times now that they are very good at using to make value-accretive acquisitions. If the market cap keeps growing, it should start being included in a few indices which will bring it to the attention of more institutional money, which can only be a good thing.

Certainly not looking to exit yet!

You would think that they would at least be hedging at these prices, no? Highest in the last two years!