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Yeah, it had already arrived this AM when I checked. Shall see if the price rises at all as people's DRIPs kick in.
I don't think so. I was a holder when KAPE was taken over and delisted. The major holder launched their takeover offer when they had 54.8%. You need more than a simple majority to take over or delist a company. I don't remember them making an offer before that either.
I keep adding small amounts, but the price keeps dropping. I am starting to wonder if the market knows something I don't! I think it is a well-run, profitable business. I think when the next set of results come out, they will resume the buybacks!
I think that a condition of the license being granted is that they maximise the output of any development. So it is all or nothing - if they throttle production (without a very good operational reason for doing so) they could risk having their license revoked and then being excluded from future licensing rounds. They can however choose not to invest any more capital into a development stating not economic to do so and let natural decline do the work - I think we are already starting to see this. Also the fact that the government is not getting much interest or money from licensing rounds should be a wake-up call, but nobody will ever accuse this government of being too observant.
Just have to make sure that their holding doesn't get too big, as it gives them too much control. Or they could just take over. I'm still not happy with how KAPE ended up going.
Definitely a gift at the moment! Picked up a few more. Let's just hope this isn't the start of a full-blown banking crisis!
Don't be too hard on yourself Barhut. In an alternate universe, Hanut came in and we're all looking at 20p in the rear-view mirror.
I think that they should carve off $1-2m from their drilling budget for a buyback just to generate some interest/movement. Buyback vs 1 well in Morocco, I know which is going to get the MCAP to move up.
I don't think they'll double the dividend, they'll just slowly walk it up over time, saving up cash for an acquisition. I would be expecting maybe 4.5p if the gas prices hold (and they should be hedging fairly solidly at these levels too!)
The company looks to be making good money now, which management has shown a few times now that they are very good at using to make value-accretive acquisitions. If the market cap keeps growing, it should start being included in a few indices which will bring it to the attention of more institutional money, which can only be a good thing.
Certainly not looking to exit yet!
Hopefully, they give us an update when they announce the R3 workover is complete - they should be making serious bank at these prices. And with 60% of production too! Either R3 complete or Columbus Development well completion, which should be in a month or so.
Kape got a little shout out in The Spectator. Apparently one of the picks by Jonathan Davis.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-stamp-duty-solution-for-the-chancellor (under the Maverick Markets section)
Scott
NewKOTB
Don't forget gas trading at 56p/therm and hedges in place for at least 40p/therm.
Question - what do you think the BKR production will be (ex R3) will be at the end of this year? As in, how many barrels/day will we be getting 100% of? I think over 2020 it dropped ~3k bbl/day, just wondering what they expect the depletion to be.
Scott
upomega - They mentioned a progressive dividend, so I'm pretty confident that it will be increased. Even on the back of this bad year, I'm predicting it will be raised to at least 4p, possibly higher with strengthening gas prices.
When will it look cheap to you? When they update the earnings at the end of the year? Think you might have missed the boat by then. They are expecting EBITA to nearly triple last year ($5.8M - > $16.1M) for the first half of the year, with full-year expected to be in the range of $35-38M. And I think there is probably a good chance of an upward revision/surprise due to remote working (if you read their trading updates).
As we don't have the profit yet, we can work with the EV/EBITDA ratio instead. Taking the lower end of their given range we get: 311 / (35 / 1.33) = 11.8.
That isn't bad for a growth technology stock in a growing area (internet security). KAPE is profitable, has demonstrated organic and inorganic growth and has backers with deep pockets willing to help out. Once the market settles a little and we get our half-yearly update, we will comfortably see new highs.
ScottAJ