Member Info for Scott22

88 cents.

gives “hold firm” a whole new meaning.

Did Paul really e-mail an investor - “Hold firm today, we’ll have details out this week…”

That is a little hard to believe. Would be inappropriate for one thing. I would love to see a copy of the entire e-mail. Still we need a little transparent communication pretty soon.

The “hold firm today” part would be most inappropriate as it implies that the news is going to be good. Why “hold firm” if the details are going to disappoint. Just as inappropriate to say “hold firm” as “bail now, we’ll have details this week”. Whole Coho tale has become a little bizarre. My vote is that they go right to drilling Coho 2 as soon as the Coho pipeline is operational. Why not double that dry gas production immediately. Okay maybe get the legacy obligations out of the way with two Coora wells first. That drill pad is all ready, give Star Valley rig just a little warm up time, and the oil can be trucked immediately. Pay off very quick as is the pay off from a Coho 2. After that the Royston pad is waiting. After that they jump to Cascadura A pad for 3-4 wells. Have to get going at some point. Just totally stalled out. In doldrums during interval of extremely good oil prices (and that may or may not last).

Ouch. Two ways of looking at it. No news is good news as per Helx2. Or no news is bad news. I have seen it play out both ways.

A few weeks. But the Star valley rig is parked for now, They also will start with 2 Coora wells and then either do a Coho-2 (since they hopefully will have a pipeline connection by then and can generate cash quickly) or move to Royston Pad to do the Royston 1-ST. What they do at Royston pad once there (? Royston Deep, ? Kraken) depends on progress at Cascadura. I can't imagine they will be ready to start drilling on Cascadura Pad A for months at the least.

Meanwhile 4-6 weeks from may 12 takes us to Thursday as the outer limit for the extended and extended and extended first gas at Coho target date. Only tomorrow and Thursday for a before market RNS.

And EIA covers whole Cascadura field including pads A and B, all the development wells, the facilities, the liquids pipeline to the south. Everything we are discussing right now is very clear. There is enough that isn’t clear to worry about.

Volpino: NGC will build Cascadura gas pipeline which will be a huge20” pipe.

NGC will build all gas pipelines on Ortoire block as per their contract. TXP will build any needed liquids pipeline connectors.

Just based on what else can possibly go wrong speculation, since everything in world seems to be going wrong and TXP itself has not exactly been on a roll.

The Coho well could come on at lower that expected rates. It has been shut n for a couple of years and may take a little time to clean up. Hopefully nothing else. Optimistic scenario might be 10-12 mmcf day with 8-9.6 mmcf/day net to TXP. Numbers below that range might not be well received initially. If the well comes on at 8 mmcf/day with 6.4 net to TXP, that might be poorly received even though it might be temporary.

We need Coho on-line with first gas from Ortoire generating revenue. An as expected number would be better than excuses for a low number, even if just a comment about clean up of the well ongoing. We also need the final approval on Cascadura by June 1.

Below is from FB - but hopefully pipe is all welded and hopefully buried so hopefully connections on both ends and testing should be less weather dependent. A lite of hope involved.

With 306.9 mm of rainfall recorded at Piarco as of 4 PM today, June 2022 (to date) ranks as the 8th wettest since 1981.

The last 16 days have accumulated more rainfall at Piarco compared to all of January to May 2022 (297 mm total).

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service’s Rainfall and Temperature outlook (issued at the end of May) expected June to have below-normal rains (metoffice.gov.tt/rainandtemp).

The climatological rainfall average (1991-2020) for June at Piarco: 243.4 mm.

Wet starts to the Wet Season have historically led to increased flood events later in the year (eg 1988, 2017, 2018).

Obviously the June 14,15 dates did not pan out.

So the only current target is the May 12 target of 4-6 weeks. That would be
June 9 to June 23. So if June 23 passes that will officially be another missed target date with no alternate target date in place.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-prices-surge-again-record-090034707.html

1. Slow walking Coho but especially Cascadura makes no sense right now. A low cost 200 mmcf natural gas addition is worth a lot right now with demand for LNG and petrochemical products.

2. Refining capacity world wide is very short and crack spreads are high - extremely profitable time for refiners. It takes years to build a new refinery. Trinidad has one in mothballs and shows no urgency to recommission it and take advantage of the opportunity that is right there to add an important piece to the economy.

I thought I saw that - maybe I misread it. Everyone agrees that the intermediate (at least the top part that was tested as they were still in intermediate at total depth) had very little water. That is the main idea behind the Royston 1-ST. Go back there, get through it, produce it optimally. I might be inclined to stop there but if everything is going well they may (and they probably should) drill to sub-thrust and see what's there. Because penal-barrackapore has produced mainly from intermediate and sub-thrust.

eyeore2: I am glad I had it right. Thanks for filling out n exact numbers and links!

The zones get confusing. Some misinformation here. The intermediate zone did not have 50% water cut. My understanding is as follows:

Royston Discovery has three zones. From bottom to top they are:

1. Royston Subthrust - never reached

2. Royston Intermediate zone - they drilled through part of it and tested about 550 bopd with NO Water. Never reached bottom of intermediate

3. Overthrust - tested deepest part and found light oil with 90% water cut. Moved uphole and tested a small interval (75 feet) nearer top and got 50% water cut - that is the area that was on the prolonged production test. The pipe is stuck below the interval they tested.

The goals of the next three wells from Royston drill pad that have been discussed:

1. Royston 1-ST goals. Drill through entire intermediate zone. If everything is going well enter and test the sub-thrust for first time. Regardless of whether they get to sub-thrust or not, optimally complete the intermediate zone and place that on a long term production test and sell the oil.

2. Royston Deep goals - this well may be on hold for a while and be moved back in the queue behind Cascadura development wells. But the goal is to test the sub-thrust and, if positive, place it on a LT production test of the sub-thrust and sell the oil.

3. Kraken goals - drill right by all three Royston zones and test the underlying deep Cretaceous Kraken prospect. Timing of this well (initially early 2022) in also unclear. It will be drilled but unclear when in the sequence. Seems almost certainly a 2023 well.

MJ: Just depression speaking. Frustration and really exasperation. They do have a world class rig the Star Valley in Trinidad (no easy task to mobilize it from Canada) and a trained crew - if they are still together and available - and they should be able to crank out some wells once the continuous drilling program starts.

Since this is an erudite British board, I'll throw in a little MacBeth.

"Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have led us fools ...
The way toward financial ruin.

Now, Will also has lots of hopeful looking to the future, rising phoenix like from the ashes to triumph gloriously over hardship type of speeches. I'll have to think of one.

One of my holdings is Cenovus which I jumped into when they bought Husky. They picked up some Indonesia gas assets that are big cash cows. There is one new field in Indonesia coming on-line 2023. It is an off shore field but it has taken a very long time to get it to production. And lots of complaints along the way about red tape and delays. Kind of amusing to read about it as we suffer these next few weeks to Coho and the next few to many months to Cascadura. (this is working out fine for Cenovus, likely coho/cascadura will be fine for TXP, providing the wall of cash to develop from cash flow Royston and discoveries yet to be made).

Expected Madura indonesia (high liquid) gas project, late 2023. The crazy long delay due to red tape (IE government corruption) work out on this one as it will be selling NG at unimaginable prices when it start flowing gas. “The MBH field was discovered in 2011, while the drilling of five exploration wells in 2012 led to the discovery of the MDK, MAC, MAX and MBJ fields.”. The first steel cutting ceremony for the three-decked WHP was held in April 2014, while the construction of the pipeline infrastructure is in progress. The FPSO supply contract was signed in December 2014 and the facility was expected to start operations by late 2016.

First production was for 2017, then push forward to 2022. Hopefully late 2023 is it. This is 12 years from discovery for this small gas field in a developed area. .

Toronto 199 K - versus average 215k

London 144k - versus average 194 k

US OTC 37K - versus average 28 K

equivalent to 94.50 pence.

Sorry again - just google russia blocks helium sales to west. Lots out there. Includes neon sales as well.

Sorry if that link does not work. I saw this on the Royal Helium FB investors group page on FB. It is an interesting group covering primary helium industry in Saskatchewan and has contributions from Dean Nawata who is senior company official. It is a group you might want to join.

https://www.********************455759702898574/permalink/531741305300413/