Member Info for Scott22

Market is not always right but does not like current TXP path, which is pause and be conservative. Wait for Coho and Cascadura to start flowing gas. Then do something.

Meanwhile oil is $115 a barrel. AND they have a world class rig idle under contract and world class oil prospects ready to drill. The should do a two well Coora warm up to meet the obligation, then right to Royston pad and drill Royston-1 ST, Royston Deep and especially Kraken their cretaceous wild card. That is all oil. It won’t slow up Coho or Cascadura gas. Those 5 oil wells can all be done before the Casca A pad is ready.

I know they want to avoid debt but there is huge opportunity here and they are idle, sitting on their hands. John Wright is still collecting free new shares every quarter. He should go, board should be revitalized with Paul as COB. TXP should a little more aggressive in attacking the oil opportunity that is right there.

Market may be wrong. I certainly may be wrong as I love the story and have been waiting for it to unfold piece by piece on current path. But the current path is not attracting many investors or earning much confidence, despite recent Josef Schacter top pick pronouncement. Oil at $115, great targets, rig ready drill pads all prepared , a super rig they are paying for already. They are an E and P company, maybe they should drill a couple oil wells. Anyway that is how I am feeling this morning. Maybe it will pass.

Joey1998: Thanks for post. Glad you talked to Paul. The $5 million from VAT rebate will help. And selling the Coho pipeline to NGC will help too - NGC always owns and operates the collecting system up to the well pad. They will also take over any expenses for maintenance, security, etc. Only I would have thought the cost for that pipeline would be over $1 million. The project has been under construction for a very long time.

I am impatient and sometimes exasperated (from Kaddie over on Stockhouse) but not distraught. Story has a few challenging pieces but is intact, just grinding ahead at glacial pace. Coho and especially Cascadura are valuable discoveries that can be monetized. Cascadura alone is worth several times current market cap. And I for one believe that Royston is also a valuable discovery that will add steady cash flow eventually. And that there is promise in the future phase two exploration program - and beyond. If there had been dry holes at Coho and Cascadura and Royston then the company would be shedding the Ortoire block and going back to the original plan of maybe doubling or tripling production over next few years from a more robust legacy drilling program in this higher oil price environment. And the shares would be worth at least what they are right now. So the ortoire exploration program has been smashingly successful, is poised to deliver a wall of cash, and is essentially being valued at nothing. Worst mistake in my opinion only would be to bail now.

It doesn't matter that much Trek, but the May 2022 TXP slide deck is newer than the video and says "4-6 weeks". That means they are not quite holding to the timeline they set in the video only TWO WEEKS ago. I guess we can believe it when they cut the ribbon, turn the spigot, and hand out a piece of cake at the Coho well pad. Maybe a little steel drum band and a speech by Energy Minister Young. (He owes us that much). Cannot come soon enough.

It is going to be a long journey to 32,000 boed and beyond, but we are in very early stages and a lot of it should be pretty predictable (drilling development wells). But taking that first step has been painfully hard. And painfully slow. First gas at Coho is that first step.

By report mentioned at the meeting today. Supposed to be quiet for 5 months. But that is overlooking one thing. They have a drilling comittment of 120 days for 2022. TXP cannot just wait 5 months and then drill a well or two. They will pay for the rig whether they use it or not. 120 drilling days with a rig like Star Valley rig should be 5-10 wells AT THE LEAST. Why not Coora times two, the one Coho development well which adds another 10-12 mmcf/day. Then jump back to Royston pad and drill Royston 1-ST. All those wells should go right to production as soon as completed.and be part of the process of ramping production and cash flow.

Then they can decide between Royston Deep exploration, Kracken exploration, or Cascadura A development wells depending on what is happening.

They paid a million dollars just to mobilize the Star Valley rig to trinidad and it has done precious little (three additional shallow legacy wells) . It doesn't make sense have it sit there doing nothing through most of 2022 since they have to pay for the drilling days anyway.

Dai: Drilling for helium is identical to drilling for natural gas.........

It certainly is. In Saskatchewan they have wells with specific fairly small horizontal accumulations of primary helium, usually 10 meters or less. They drill these wells as standard natural gas wells and complete and produce in the helium zones. They use exactly same service industry as their drilling for natural gas. Of course the purifiers and other surface infrastructure is different but there is nothing different about dirlling or testing or completing the wells.

Thanks Trek, glad they updated the corporate presentation. Hope the talk was good and that it shows up on-line.

Where did you get "mid-June" for Coho.. I saw:

"First gas from the Ortoire block with the
commissioning of the Coho facility anticipated
within the next four to six week"

Hey, I was totally kidding. I wasn’t trying to impart any new literary information.
Thought everyone would know that.

Funny to be on a British message board and get a line from William Shakespeare attributed to a an old 90’s movie.

But I agree the situation is frustrating, tending toward exasperating. I never sell in these situations however, unless the fundamental story has fallen apart. I do not think that is the case. The helium is still there and the demand is real and the pricing is strong. They just have to execute and pull off their stated promise that 2022 is the year of discovery.

dai: yes I knew that, I'm just thinking of the cost, wherever they find a rig. Obviously it would be nice if the rig was in Tanzania or close by. Total has rigs there. They would like to produce more helium - they have green ambitions. They have massive scale and participate in global marketing and supply chains. I have been dreaming about Total as a minority partner, taking a stake in company with a right to purchase all the gas at the wellhead. They could build their own processing facilities, even a liquification plant if volumes were high enough, and could jump start this whole process of supplying 10% of the world's helium from Tanzania. The alternative if I was working for total would be to buy out Helium 1.

The market was cutting us a lot of slack back in those days. Coho then massive cascadura 1-ST then massive Cascadura Deep. Chinook only 1/5 km from Cascadura and everyone thought this was easy with gas after gas after gas.

Chinook was even announced as a gas discovery based on resistivity. Opps it was oily water and a lot of water. That is when trouble in paradise began. Chinook results blew it up. That also unfairly stained Royston results although the Royston intermediate sands had no water and the well bore got ruined by stuck drilling string that could not be retrieved. In reality Royston is going to be big find and likely will produce from intermediate sheet and sub-thrust. And Chinook is still promising for an up dip test well, though at present it is a dirty word in the TXP fishery lexicon. That could flip some day.

I am hopeful we can get these three wells producing (starting with first gas at Coho imminently)and that we have plenty of development locations (Coho 1 and Cascadura 6-8), that we can ramp production steadily and efficiently for next two years. Royston is also going to provide some development locations very soon (after Royston 1-ST that will all become more clear, especially if they can successfully test the sub-thrust with that well. Then lots of good things could happen on the exploration side, setting up even more development possibilities.

Quasimodo: I wish that Victoria RNS from this morning had been our RNS.

dai: yeah but you have to pay for a rig to be mobilized (including a crew) and then have a minimal work plate that makes it worthwhile for the company. For any substantial program they may have to make some kind of partnership deal that maybe includes part ownership and a supply agreement. Otherwise they have to get more financing. I am not in huge favor of issuing more shares at this price point.

Remember Malcy's recent words after Q1 report and operations update ......

"Touchstone remains one of the outstandingly cheap stocks within this sector..."

There are reasons for that. And delays in production and revenues is a big part of that. But somewhat ironically the path forward could be a smooth and steady climb in share price, if they can just execute. Starting with first gas at Coho. Let's offer them forgiveness (a pardon) on that day and judge them going forward. Coho and then Cascadura will be the first new gas on-shore in Trinidad in decades and naturally there have been a few challenges.

This is a golden oldie and a blast from the past. This is from the 12/12/2019 RNS after final testing of the Coho well.

"Final testing of the Coho-1 exploration well displayed natural gas rates that greatly exceeded the Company's expectations and is expected to materially contribute to our near-term growth. With production testing and analysis completed and verified independently, the Company has a clear indication of the potential of Coho-1 and is moving forward to bring the well on stream in the first half of 2020."

There have been multiple new target dates since then, one following the other. The Coho well was selected as first drill of the Ortoire exploration program because of close proximity (3 km) to an underutilized natural gas processing facility with excess capacity.

The spigot has been turned to off since that date. What happens when the turn it on. Should flow fine but may need some time to clean up and reach steady state.

First gas at Coho really will call for a ribbon cutting and a new cve celebration. Hopefully it will be the first of many well hook ups with the two Cascadura exploration wells and a second Coho well and new Cascadura Development wells adding to production serially and smoothly as they transition from an exploration company to a significant oil and gas producer.

Aussie-P: I think you may have answered your own question.

I struggle to see what we would be hoping to get from the 121 events at this time.
Perhaps they are looking to secure the extra cash to fund further drills or indeed at this stage secure a farm-in deal.

Seriously I think we are all waiting for what DM promised before March 30 at the latest. Everyone wants to know "When we are drilling, what we are drilling, where we are drilling, with whom we are drilling". The first drilling season ended with a fizzle when Tai 1, so very promising, had fatal well bore problems and could not be tested. Then Tai-2 was announced and then aborted in the shallow lakebed.

Is there going to be a second drilling campaign yet this year? When, where, with what equipment, with whom? Certainly that will be on everyone's mind at the 121 event. And certainly they cannot divulge that information without an RNS first. But it doesn't look like they have it together just yet.

Q2: Coho pipeline...., is this still on track to come online by the end of May?

A2: Yes! Likely right around the end of May or the first couple of weeks in June.

But wouldn't the correct answer to Q2 have been something like..... No! We have slipped a little but not likely more than another month.

It is a hard hard slog to get the gas flowing.

I hope Cascadura hook-up goes faster than expected because that is more important. And I agree that the Cascadura development wells will be very interesting as they have only completed small part of potential pay from that giant reservoir and Cascadura "Deep" never even reached the deep sand target because of difficulty handling the high pressure gas in the up hole zone that was completed.

There is almost no volume. But ask sits at $US 0.135 which is about 11 pence. And bid at $US 0.085 which is 7 pence.
Every once in a while someone manages to catch a few hundred shares for 8 1/2 cents. And every once in a while someone manages to unload a few hundred for 13 1/2 cents. The last trade sets the value of the shares down 38% or up 58% (depending on direction of most recent trade) so the balance for that security and the whole accounts bounces around all day. Of course those buyers and sellers are not trading in SCH where I trade because there is a $100 commission which makes 100 shares very very expensive whether bought for 8.5 cents or for 13.5 cents. Not surprisingly not many people hold or trade this in US. Buying on AIM with a 10,000 share trade and a limit and an all or none instruction has been my only way to get somewhat close to fair market buys. I have never sold any - that might be an adventure down the road.

My limit order at US $1.10 filled as I was typing that last post. At the very least I can say I am committed to my analysis. I have been slowly adding TXP even after I revised my target upwards and reached that number. I haven't set an official new target yet, just nibbling opportunistically. At least I hope it proves opportunistic. TXP is my highest conviction among my high risk/high reward speculative picks.

I have put Malcy's recent quote (after the 1Q earnings report and update0 on my refrigerator. I think I am going to get a magnet with his words.

"Touchstone remains one of the outstandingly cheap stocks in this sector."

And don't forget this sector is probably the best sector in the whole market right now.

Are any of the 123 Mining presentations live streamed or recorded for later viewing on you tube?

Some thoughts afetr reading Pro post.

They are going to set up on the big new Coora pad to drill last two commitment wells. Those are shallow development wells on the legacy side and might produce 300 bopd each thought he last set of three legacy development wells at WD-4 and WD-8 were a little disappointing.

Then they likely go to Royston Pad to drill Royston 1-ST and get the intermediate zone fully scoped and hopefully producing on LT test. They might sneak down and test the sub-thrust with the same drill if everything is going excellently. Then it is sort of up in the air, depending on the progress getting first two Cascadura wells on production and whether they are ready to drill the Cascaudra A development wells.

But lets say it becomes clear that they stretch out the timeline a little and do not want to interrupt the continuous drilling program that they have promised. There are two pretty easy options, assuming enough cash. First they could test the Hererra deep to the legacy wells at coora. I think they have an Hererra target there. They could extend one of the Coora development wells deeper as a test and then plug distally and produce the shallow zone as planned. Or they could drill a separate Herrera exploration well though that would be more expensive.

OR, after moving to Royston and drilling Royston 1-ST, they could just drill Kraken if they have white space in the schedule. They would not have to move the rig, the crew could keep working. Problem is that it is expensive, they don't want to borrow for development, and they might not want to confirm the deep cretaceous until the results of the next bid round (specifically Guayaguayare) are announced. But still, finding one discovery at Kraken is so massive and even historic that waiting on Guayaguayare is not critical.

Just thinking out loud. Getting the continuous drilling program started is such a big deal and it opens up all kinds of optionality. It is also the key to the Cascadura A and B development wells and the 200 mmcf/day gas production and the wall of cash that funds further development of Royston, the second phase of exploration, and wherever that leads TXP.
We are very early in this story. Coho will come on line and double with Coho 2. And Cascadura is 10 times Coho. And I still firmly believe that Royston is real and will produce 5,000 to 10,000 bopd for decades once ramped. The cards yet to be turned over include the big one, Kraken - but also Coho neighborhood prospects , Chinook up dip, deep test on Legacy land, Steelhead, Guabine, multiple other Ortoire prospects, and just maybe an entire new block from the bid round, Guayaguayare my top choice.