Member Info for Scott22

Russia now blocking all helium sales to west.

https://www.gizchina.com/2022/06/03/russia-bans-the-export-of-inert-gases-such-as-neon-and-helium/?fbclid=IwAR1DTKcyzMXD24sih8fuK1tCttOfPtqMqP1oBvwqsUjVUhXL_425AbSinbg&fs=e&s=cl

Might be an opportune time to make a deal or two, get enough capital to accelerate the process, and grab a spot in the global market for helium.

mbarnholdt: Thanks for your post. I would like for us to meet at a bar in Trinidad. I would like to go on a field trip with Xavier and attend a lecture by him. Maybe he would pick the bat and have a beer with us. If I lived in London I would have gone to that recent meeting just to meet him and say hello. Good luck to all investors following this story. It really might happen.

JWill: I was not basing my observation that DM (more accurately the company) has lost confidence in investors based on any comments on this message board. I was basing it on share price. I was able to buy some for 8.5 US cents recently which does not indicate super confidence in broad market as that confidence is what sets the share price. I do not think the lack of confidence is based on fear there is no helium. Rather there is worry they do not have enough money to carry this to the next steps which are discovery but also production and revenues. And the worry that time is passing while this incredible opportunity is sitting there, and being pursued by others. There has also been an opportunity to make some strategic partnerships and that has not happened. Maybe because the company does not want to give up a portion of future riches. Or maybe because the management has not been able to identify and execute such partnerships.

That said, there is enough interest in the story that confidence in DM and the company can swing wildly positive with a few positive developments, most importantly steps to discovery, documenting commercial discovery with reserves, clear financial path to production, favorable off take agreements into global helium market, and finally production and revenues.

Dollars not pounds. And 6 million shares of TXP with no other holdings would not be much wiser than a yacht party with hookers and blow. Much of that is in tax “advantaged” accounts which have grown tax free for decades but in the state I live in are taxed at 50% on withdrawal. And real estate taxes are also brutal in the fair city where I live. So I am a pretty frugal person actually. No helicopters. Old Toyota car. Plus I have other financial obligations of choice. I hope not to run out of funds but no need to be sarcastic about it. Investing in the stock market has been a big interest for many decades and has provided much of my net worth. I enjoy it and spend time at it. A basket of all high risk micro caps would not be prudent. But I enjoy these type of investments the most and I follow a number of message boards and other group forums (largely for micro caps ) because they add company and industry specific knowledge and an interesting diverse group of people with different life experiences and viewpoints. I leave if they go off the rails, which usually happens when a board gets too many members, just based on the general observation that 10% of people are just plain nuts and once there are four or five of those any board can become useless. My overall view (I have said this before) is that micro cap stocks are risky ( maybe especially on AIM ), DYOR and be prepared to lose your shirt. But also, doing your own research is probably more important in this space than elsewhere, gains can be larger when the story works out as planned, and the outsized profits from a big winner are especially sweet. The only reason I mentioned my % of portfolio is because I am very positive about TXP and was providing a list of unopposed positives, but I would not advocate putting everything here and I did not want to imply that there was no risk of losing your shirt here.

A shorter version might be : Micro stocks are risky, DYOR and be prepared to lose your shirt. But also, doing your own research is probably more important in this space than elsewhere, gains can be larger when the story works out as planned, and the outsized profits from a big winner are especially sweet.

Thanks Trek, my only point in mentioning my % holding was that others (like yourself) have more concentrated positions and might look at risk reward through a different lens. So I wanted that to be clear when I was laying out my current analysis. I totally appreciate your contributions to the board and I take into account the strength of your conviction in terms of concentration.

I always have 5 speculative positions (turn-around, special situations, microcap speculative) that together make up 5-10% of my portfolio. I am old and I need different things from different investments, including income. You probably have stable sources of income that I do not have. The goal for this basket (based on the oldest Peter Lynch book) is that 2 or 3 do very well (5 to 10 baggers), 1 or 2 are flat or flattish, and 1 goes belly up. Over the years (many years) these issues have contributed a lot to my overall gains. (Even though it is painful when an individual favorite goes south). I probably follow them more carefully than any other investments. I have enough of each stock that each can make a meaningful difference if they do well. I currently have 112,000 shares of TXP. I do not consider it a lowly holding. It might be my favorite holding. My first shares were in 2014 when the Petrobank shell bought the old Touchstone. I have many hundreds of hours invested in following this story. For the last few years Xavier Moonan has been maybe my favorite part. I have even learned a little geology. And like you TXP is my current highest conviction holding in this space.

(As a side note. The Petrobank shell had 20-30 million left after spinning out Lightstream Resources. I had a lot of Lightstream shares which went BK shortly after company assurances in a conference call that the cash flow more than covered the debt payments. This was in a downturn and the banks did not care. The oddest thing was that the principals (John Wright and friends) managed to take it private and come out of BK running and even owning a big piece of it, reconstituted as Ridgeback resources. The only difference after the dust settled is that they owned it (management) and we didn't (shareholders). That is where my PTSD comes from that kicks in every time that JW gets his free dollop of shares as the COB.)

Prompted by comments by poster in Canada wondering how many have bailed and second guessing why he has not, given the huge opportunities and the successes of many oil and gas companies in this moment.

There is an alignment of opportunity but it is not always exploited in a synchronous manner. There can be late-comers to the party.

I am as frustrated as anyone, but I continue to see the opportunity here and I continue to believe that most of the negativity and frustration is priced in and that the second half of 2022 can be a strong period for TXP shares with upward movement that can accelerate in 2023 and continue to climb in 2024.

For me TXP is a significant holding but still only 2%. The most discouraging thing to me would be to walk away now and see the story play out as I think it can. I am not selling until Cascadura gas field is producing 150 mmcf/day. I am not selling until Royston intermediate zone and sub-thrust are fully tested. I am not selling until Kraken the cretaceous prize is opened.

I am not buying more now but if price gets crazy again (which in my mind is below US $1), I will add more in a measured fashion, unless one of those four things falls apart,.

Along the way there are a lot of possibilities for other positive developments, once they get to continuous drilling.

The frustration is that in Montney in Canada and in Permian Basin the time to get a well into production is about one week after it is drilled. The timeline for these Trinidad on-shore discoveries so far has been a few years, much more like an off-shore discovery which requires complex infrastructure costing tens of millions of dollars. But the value of a TCF field like Cascadura is still there and it is still real. And the deeper sands at Cascadura have not even been tested so they may be able to keep that peak production of 150 mmcf/day going a lot longer than the 3-5 years Paul has talked about.

This is only my opinion of course and everyone's circumstances are different. But I am going to play it this way. If cascadura is flowing at 150 mmcf/day and Royston intermediate and sub-thrust are tested fully but disappointing, and Kraken is a duster, then I will do due diligence on the other items in play and likely bail out for whatever I can get. (The other items yet to be determined include deep test on legacy side, Coho 2 and Coho neighborhood prospects, Cascadura deep subthrust test, Chinook up dip wells, Guabine, and Steelhead).

I am not worried about DM losing investor confidence. To a certain extent he has already lost it. The only thing that can happen from here is that he can regain it. (he can't really lose something that he has already lost).

Johnoxxx: Sorry, that was a typo on my part. Meant to say June 14 or 15.

Energy Minister Young gave an address yesterday when he mentions second half of 2022.

https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/young-promises-more-gas-by-2027-6.2.1500847.5b3385d905

Wed Jun 01 2022

..............Onshore, the Energy Minister said production out of Touchstone’s Ortoire block from its Coho and Cascudura discoveries, with first gas expected in the second half of 2022...............

My only point is that there is nowhere in the world where hooking up one natural gas well to production would take three years and be this kind of thing with multiple moving deadlines and the market eagerly waiting to see if they can do it. Especially when the location of the well was chosen because of close proximetry to a natural gas processing plant that has been operating for 50 years, is serving a declining field (central block), and has excess capacity. They simply have to get this thing moving a little. Get the three nice gas wells into production and sales. It should not be this hard.

New Paul Baay interview in the guardian.

New target for Coho June 14 to 26.

AND who knows when the Cascadura EIA will be approved...

"We are in the midst of putting in an application for an environmental impact assessment which should come down in a little while,...

How could we be “in the midst”?

Thank Moroccan: government making “swift moves to review…(the tax situation)”.

Words like that are not always followed by action, but yet it is a whole lot better than making molasses slow moves to consider looking at the situation.

Luckily I backed a couple of horses. OVV has had a great run, CVE started a little slower but solid gains and massive prospects. I also have AVV and even some CEQP and AMP as income generator.s. And some Fidelity Select Energy shares. But I still have hope that TXP will get things going and participate in the end.

Just John Wright moving a few hundred thousand shares around into different buckets. Still galls me for him to get ongoing share awards quarter after quarter after quarter. He should move on. As non-executive COB I cannot see how he has contributed to moving things forward, on almost any level. Last trip to Trinidad? Connections with local leaders, government agencies, local industry, other Trinidad energy companies? Involvement in financing? I suppose he talks with Paul and maybe Shipka and Budau, but probably only at Board meetings.

I think Paul as COB would be an advance, especially with some general refreshing of the board. McKinnon is a holdover with current board position on alvopetrol as well. Vredenburg is a senior academic business guy with strategy focus - at U Calgary. Valentine also a holdover, a senior canadian lawyer who does have a lot of expertise in oil and gas industry. Valentine expertise is in small-medium cap and private equity funding of energy companies internationally, and in oil an gas company research. Accomplished but his skills might be more appropriate to where TXP started than to where it is trying to go or how to maximize opportunity today. Stanley Smith is a retired KMG accountant with lots of directorships in small energy companies. Not an exciting or diverse board at all. Beverly Smith is exception, a geologist with "background in development and production geology and sub-surface management, notably in Trinidad... (and Tunisia and other places)'. Has background in corporate governance as well. Wonder if she has a good working relationship with Xavier and the rest of the geoscience Trinidad team.

Maybe some shake up in order, Paul as COB might have the best overall perspective to reshape the board with a couple of new faces and a couple of retirements, done gradually over a couple of years. For Paul to be in that position John Wright would have to exit active involvement (will still be a big shareholder but has enough free shares already). I have been wanting that to happen since 2014 and I almost passed on TXP as an investment idea because of his ongoing presence. But I like the story. The real story began with the Ortoire block. Maybe John even had some input into that early bid. But he should move on already and follow as an interested shareholder.

TXP is not yet participating in the biggest oil and gas up cycle (current oil price $118 and most oil and gas production companies are printing money) , because production is totally flat from legacy shallow wells that are not even reflective of what the company is trying to do or the opportunities right there to be exploited. Sense of urgency is required. This board will not likely infuse that sense of urgency nor add the expertise and connections that support the company employees to make it all happen. Just a little accountability would be good.

MJ - I get that but there has been talk of waiting until the first two Cascadura wells are on production and that has been paired with talk of resuming drilling in October. There are 90 days in the 4th quarter, so even if they fire Star Valley up on October the first 90 is less than 120.

We are paying 120 days of day rate during 2022. There is still time to use those days. But the drilling cannot resume in October and still use all those days.

This was my May 10 post. I was hoping all these things would happen ion May. But we are 0/4. How many do you think might happen in June.

We don't need excuses for more delays at the London presentation May 21. In the next 10 days we need:

1. FIRST GAS AT COHO
2. CASCADURA DEVELOPMENT PLAN ACCEPTED
3. STAR VALLEY RIG BACK IN ACTION WITH SEQUENCE OF FIRST WELLS

BONUS FOR THE FOLLOWING

4. FAVORABLE RESULTS OF ON-SHORE BID ROUND

so guess so highlandmatt: but stillpeople end governments tend to act in their own self interest. If “the process” keeps them from acting in their own self interest, maybe the process should be changed.

What I ABSOLUTELY do not understand. IfvTrindad has huge petrochemical business and can have 200 mmcf/day of &2.50 natural gas to turn into chemicals at current pricing, why on earth would anyone in the government tolerate any barriers to getting all necessary approvals wrapped up. Makes no sense.

That is 93 pence so might open a little stronger in London.

As for the discussion about the price for natural gas with a five year review possible.

Operating costs for Cascadura wells is about 5 cents an MCF. Plenty of profit. Inflation rider is nice but I have not seen it defined how that will be measured and adjusted. After 5 years TXP could ask for review. But so could NGC. There won’t be any massive re-rate to a high market price.

What I ABSOLUTELY do not understand. IfvTrindad has huge petrochemical business and can have 200 mmcf/day of natural gas to turn into chemicals at current pricing, why on earth would anyone in the government tolerate any barriers to getting all necessary approvals wrapped up. Makes no sense.

And don’t forget there are liquids in play. Separators have been built. There will be a liquids pipeline south. They might as well start that now.

The longest timeline to avoid disappoint is a good idea in many circumstances. But less helpful if you have already missed a pretty conservative estimate five times and just keep advancing it. Now we are mid-June. I just don’t want to hear “end of June” or “early July”.

Star Valley rig is not only sitting there and presumably rusting away, what is worse is we have to pay for it to be drilling for 120 days in 2022, even if we fall short of that number of drilling days. Time is of the essence, and that has not been TXP strong suit recently.