The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
XM has already explained it - a couple of years ago
Quite a bit of historical info on the blocks they have acquired in one of Xavier's previous works
https://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2020/11293moonan/ndx_moonan.pdf
newboots: "Sniffing around TXP . Can't shake my initial reaction that Coho and Cascadura uplift/projections are more than baked in at ÂŁ130m mcap. Am I wrong ?"
Discord has lots of information. Try the Cascadura-cec thread which has the complete Cascadura development plan.
Cascadura field is a 500 BCF to 1 TCF field that is sitting next to a major pipeline. It can be drained by 5-8 conventional wells that will produce for decades. The NGC is paying for a connecting 20 inch pipeline to the wellhead. Payment is for production at the wellhead. Production begins at 60 mmcf/day, ramps to 90 mmcf/day with optimization of the initial two wells, and then jumps to 200 mmcf/day after 3-5 development wells are drilled. After that no more drilling and production will be only slowly decreasing for 20-30 years. Overhead operating cost after build out will be .05 cents per MCF. Then there is the condensate (6000 barrels/day) which are being stripped out for sale. There are also untested Hererra sands that are even considered in this analysis. If TXP had only cascadura field the idea of a 130 million pound market cap does not make sense in terms of valuation. If you do go to the discord board look at the upcoming-triggers and stockprice-talk threads too. As well as the cacadura, cascadura-ced, and royston threads. A lot to keep busy and gain insight. Board is monitored by J-M. He is very open to different views, but also will weed the garden a bit in terms of off track or ill informed commentary that distracts from overall board. Which is why it remains a good forum. So sniff around and you can get a lot of information. But maybe not start with is the value of coho/ fully baked in at 130 million pounds. Until you understand the ingredients of the cake.
"You haven't done your research, Scott. Recent announcement re. leaching copper sulphides is groundbreaking. As for the lead at Kabwe the situation is under government control and not JLPs. You should read more."
If you look back at Jubilee news they have talked for several years about taking a key role (in partnership not only with the country but also with UN agencies) to help clean up the massive lead tailings at Kabwe and make a difference for that community. All I am saying is hat nothing has materialized.
I am willing to believe you that there is something special about copper recovery process (leaching copper sulfides) that is proprietary and gives them a moat. I just know that several of the big players including Rio Tinto are now talking about tailing extraction and remediation as a profit center and their language does not seem much different than Jubilee at this point.
I am not being contrary. I hold a fair amount of shares. I am down moderately at this point (exactly 39.15% down with purchases between December 2020 and June 2021) after buying the story. I am not selling. I hope 2023 is good. But I have been trying to decide whether to add more so I have just been updating my due diligence and the story is not quite as clean as it was 1-2 years ago. In my opinion only. I am holding, I am not adding any here.
orrowing in 2022 to pay back debt incurred earlier is a little like taking out a new mortgage right now to refinance one you have held a couple of years. Capital markets are all tighter and interest rates higher so any expiring debt is bad news.
Read your post carefully. It does sound like an AIM archetype. There are gems here but they are rare. I have not given up on Jubilee and there are still interesting parts to the story and there are still some possibilities to grow. But it seems a little less promising than a year ago. Other companies are exploiting their own tailings. Unclear what the special sauce is that Jubilee brings to the table. They sure don't have a plan yet for cleaning up lead laden tailings, and any messing with that pile might make it worse. Maybe they have to move the town, like Chernobyl.
Good point blubay, but donât forget the reason why they got bubbles in mud but could not get gas to flow to the surface. There was tremendous formation damage and no integrity of the well bore because the rig was too small, the hole was too small, there was washout which destroyed any chance of gas flowing upwards, not to mention problems with fish getting stuck and having to be worked around. There was one night where DM, exhausted, fell asleep thinking everything was totally fine and woke up to find the well bore and the whole drill had fallen apart. The decision to bail almost immediately on Tai-2 was hard to understand at the time but they had rightly concluded that the drill rig and the small well bore diameter were not going to work in that particular mix of mud and clay and sand. So here we are, resource still there, but returning with a better plan forged in failure but also learnings from that failure.
Interesting that Predator is taking on the Cory Moruga block. As far as I can tell they have one employee in Trinidad Myodeen Ali who is country manager and Project Implementation Consultant for Enhanced Oil Recovery for CO2 Injection. He is experienced and knows a lot about CO2 recovery but Predator has not been drilling any wells or doing any hands on stuff in Trinidad that I can tell. Wonder what kind of discussions there have been with TXP.
Project Implementation Consultant for Enhance Oil Recovery for CO2 Injection at Predator Oil and Gas
The question what we may expect in 2023 does not have a short answer. The précis form is Cascadura gas production, Royston oil well, growing production and revenues, continuous drilling, development wells, maybe an exploration well, results of on-shore bid round.
If you want very detailed information in more organized form, join the discord TXP group.
https://discord.gg/8NW2hPDm
The "fancy" rig we are waiting for has not been doing all that well. I hope they have at the least fixed all the problem parts so it is ready to perform at high level.
This from the Invictus drilling update of December the 9th.
-Drilling progress has been delayed due to a failure of a mud motor and loss of drilling nozzles
necessitating two unplanned change outs.
This was followed by the failure of a control module of the Top Drive System (TDS), which has
since been repaired
I decided that they clearly need to pay for this well. It is certainly a binary drill and it will occur next quarter. My basis is higher than current share price. I would probably have bought some if I was a "preferred investor" with access to the placement, but that is hardly the case. I decided to put in a bid for 50,000 shares at the offer price (6 cents $ US). Had to do it as an all or none because there is a $100 commission on each trade. Cannot pay that on partial fills. I am thinking some shareholders will look at this RNS and just decide to bail and salvage something. Maybe I can catch my limit order from one of them. Shares may drift even lower (and may be worthless if this Tai 3 well is a failure) but I am willing to hang on and see if Tai is real and if the Tanzania primary helium story is real. My decision was influenced a little by the company leaders ponying up some cash for shares at the price I am willing to pay. I have not decided to buy Noble shares to spread my Tanzania bet, but I have thought about that. Good luck all. It is going to go up, or down, based on the results of this one well. This quarter. There not be any long period of suffering.
They can't wait for a capital raise to pay for part of this drill until after they have a discovery. That is not how it works. They have to have the money in hand to pay for this drill, or pay less and sweeten it with share grants (that is a piece of the company).
Otherwise what would happen if the drill was not successful. Who would give them the money to pay off the operators of the unsuccessful drill. How could they sell shares at that point. They have to have the means to pay for the drill and to pay for Baker Hughes testing crew, and also other costs that will arise.
Paul is on the SOU board. One thing I noticed awhile back is that SOU went to Hannam and Partners (London based supplier of private capital to small energy). Right now Hannam gets pre-payments, huge interest, and an equity kicker in terms of warrants or options. Because growth capital is hard to come by right now, and very expensive. You almost have to not need it to qualify to borrow it. . At least this dilution comes with no interest and principal payback terms attached. Wonder if Paul considered Hannam and Partners as alternative funding since he was on the SOU board when they did that. That would have been ten times worse. I guess it is little solace that they didn't do something ten times worse, but it is something.
But that spot for a growing resource company when they can self fund all their exploration and development and facilities from cash flow is so magical. They thought that would come with Cascadura on line and the wall of cash arriving but the delay was moving everything too far back, So they really had to figure a way to start the continuous drilling program. And right now borrowing money is just prohibitively expensive. If you can even do it at all. Just waiting another 6 months was beginning to affect too many things, the wasted cost of the rig for one thing, even the commitments on the legacy side (already moved back a year), the reception of the on-shore bid round, the start of the second phase of exploration, the Kraken moon-shot, the proving up of Royston, the second Coho well to better use that facility. I understand why they had to find money somewhere. And in the end an 8.5% dilution is not lethal (and no interest or re- payments). But it still sucks. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all.
At least it is done and dust will begin to settle. Next few steps are pretty risk free. 1. Drill development side track into known intermediate zone at Royston. 2. Truck oil from new Royston well 3. Hook up two proven and tested wells (Casca1-ST and Casca Deep) to a newly constructed production facility. 4. Drill a Cascadura development well from Pad B (a few hundred meters away from Casca production facility) into a proven reservoir. 5. Hook new development well into production.
What can go wrong?
5. Hook up new Cascadura development well
Dai2belts: my plans always look like that, but reality bites.
The trouble is it doesn't take many setbacks to derail the plan. Amazing how many people think if a stock drops 50% they can make it all back with a 50% gain.
3500 -50 1750
1750 50 2625
2625 -50 1313
1313 50 2025
2025 -50 1013
1013 50 1520
1520 -50 760
760 50 1140
1140 -50 570
570 50 855
855 -50 427
427 50 641
Took a long time and a lot of hard work but I finally broke even.
itv: I like your enthusiasm and always enjoy your posts. I might add a bit more if it revisits 6 pence. It still isn't that easy to buy in US, at least on SCH international platform. Have to make trade by phone, there are extra charges, there is often a spread. I have enough to make a difference if we have a positive 2023 fueled by itv energy and a great drilling crew and a Baker Hughes team eager to learn more about the well services needed for primary helium wells.
Rd145: If you have 100k in a balance of other investments that are fairly conservative, then Helium 1 might be worth 3500 pound investment. If you love helium story, you might split that 3500 among a couple of high risk/ high reward helium plays.
I have Helium One and Desert Mountain Energy and Royal Helium. Desert Mountain will win the race to production. Royal Helium is a little riskier but hopes to sell some helium in April. They have a few advantages but are low on money and are taking some risks on production facility. Helium One has biggest potential resource and in my opinion biggest upside. But risk also likely highest since they do not yet have a discovery and only have the money for one more try. Once they have a commercial discovery then risk will plummet and I think they can fund a modular processing unit, as they have talked about for a few years. Production is at least a year away (almost impossible) and more likely two.