Member Info for Scott22

Agree with your general message that there is nothing to do but wait for the RNS which will come in its own time, hopefully soon.

But you should listen to the whole January 5th presentation again. Not only did he say this will be a totally different company in 2 weeks at the very beginning (it was obvious they had expected gas by end of June hence the schedule date), he also said "ten days" twice more referring to hook up and commissioning and first gas, though not necessarily to full initial flow rates of 60 mmcf/day. No one asked Paul to say in two weeks once and in ten days twice. Like it or not he did set some expectations that things would progress very quickly. Factor in several years of missed deadlines and delays in getting cascadura into production and there is reasomn for a little agitation from those who have follwoed the whole story

My own take is that the early timelines uderestimated what would be necessary to get the two wells on line. Then came the decision to get approval for the whole field development, a good decision that was encouraged by the government. Then came an underappreciation for that task and delays iin getting the approvals that were needed. Then came the final approval of the revised EIA/CEC submission on August 16, 2022. So we are less than a year from when construction of the facility began in earnest, and the parallel NGC project with the 20" pipeline to the Poole Valley valve station was also getting started.

However TXP had not been sittling idle until August 16, 2022. They had been sourcing long lead items including separators from Canada and vapor recovery unit compressors from Texas and other local fabrication including the condensate tanks. They were also spending a lot of money as the size of the facility was positioned to ultimately process 200 mmcf/day of gas from the whole field (double what they would have gotten from the first two wells). Having a field plan insured they could ramp the production to 200 mmcf/day and also replace any depletion by bringing on additional wells insuring steady production from Cascadura field for a decade and likely two or more decades.

Meanwhile as costs for a big facility mounted (I will be interested in final accounting of total cost) covid increased costs and interest rates soared and capital markets became constrained with borrowing costs punitive.) They also had made an improtant strategic decision to bring the Star Valley Rig in paying a million in mobilization costs and accepting a 120 day/ year drilling minimum for 3 years. That rig had to be parked most of the time because cash flow from Coho was late and disappointing and the massively more important cash flow from Cascadura field was delayed into 2H 2023.

Well we are in 2H 2023. Cash is about to flow. The Star Valley Rig is on the fully constructed Cascadura C pad (also some costs there) raring to go back into action. Production and revenues will ramp quickly and fund everything

Seem a little less reactive to delay. Paul in TT. Says there will be update shortly. That depends on what shortly is I guess.

JLPposiTIVE:

I only picked July 19th because PB made a huge point of opening the July 5 presentation with "In two weeks this will be a totally different company". That was sort of a self-imposed deadline because sitting and waiting for Cascadura about to come on-line (with the Star Valley rig parked because of constrained capital) is not a totally different company - it is right where we have been for many months and even a couple of years.

So two weeks after July 5 is July 19. Let us hope for RNS tonight or tomorrow night. At some point it is going to get ridiculous. Like a claim that "Cascadura will be on line in two days" or "Cascadura will be on-line in two hours".

Why do you say Tuesday? Is Monday a holiday over there? Or in Canada?

Q: Is a Epiroc Predator 220 rig as good as a Drillmec HH102 rig? Are they roughly equivalent?

C: Lorna has been involved in drilling oil and gas wells in rural Africa, specifically in the Rift Valley. I trust that she has very clear knowledge of challenges and available solutions. Her experience in the field is light years beyond DM in that regard.

Petrotal has a little problem with civil unrest.

On the other hand they share the same C.O.B with TXP.

Trek: "On or about June 30th" for Cascadura facility to go into production. I would rather have "on" than "about" but I aqree with you that in the long run that will not be important. The Discord group is all of that, has careened off the rails a bit. Is informative but in quiet times starts obsessing and repeating same rants again and again. Makes me more appreciative of this board in fact.

Roger, all aspects of the business are important. Promote the story, make a good operational plan, execute on the plan, deliver strong results.

But they have failed on some of these items. And given the current situation (money in bank for Tai-3 well) and the past history, I still think a Tai-3 discovery well will boost shares without much extra promoting. And if Tai-3 well fails, shares will drop and no amount of boosting will help to increase them in order to improve ability to raise money from a new offering.

It is sort of crunch time. I don't mind if they hunker in and drill a good well and hope for good results.

Roger Jolly: They should be investors faces at every opportunity. Keeping an sp high would be important to me as a board member, not just for holders, but if the company needs further investment down the line you start from a better place.

I think DM tried to be in investors' face at every opportunity; how did that work out?

The execution was lacking, or the luck of exploration. They need those two items more than face time. What Lorna says now is not going to impact the results of the Tai 3 well. And they have the money needed to drill that. If it has a good result, their access to capital will be easier, in some form or another. .

Their shares are trash of course.

But their most recent interview had a lot about their strategy to recycle tailings (to extract value) and clean up dumps.

They have a broad strategy to increase their activity in this area. They own just over 50% of DRDGold which is processing gold tailings. Apparently they were in discussions as far back as 2017 to look at a regional solution for tailings which would have involved JBL I would think. They are still looking at regional solution for South Africa. For one thing DRDGold might extract uranium for tailings (Sibanye has a lot of residual uranium in tailings which is becoming more valuable>)

Meanwhile Sibanye has bought all of New Century in Australia which is doing zinc extraction and remediation work currently but has broader ambitions.

I was a little surprised how much thought and work they are putting into tailings remediation. They are also net cash positive (despite all their recent operational issues) and are looking to do acquisitions.

The interviews on commodity TV are paid infomercials but have some interesting stuff and the guy pumping it asks some interesting questions.

Not funny. Too close to home, Kevin.

It has been a BIG turd. The hope is that it will become some good manure for future sprouts to grow exuberantly. Finding any wealth in this kind of situation is not likely, but I guess not impossible.

I have been following Sibanye for awhile and I own soem shares.

They bought 20% of New Century Resources, a tailings company in Australia and then bought the whole ocmpany and integrated it into Sibanye. They also are partnering with DRDGold who does tailings reprocessing in South Africa.

Sibanye is obviously very interested in tailings reprocessing and they have also become a big player in recycling of catalytic converters and batteries with operations in US and in Europe.

I have not seen any direct information about Sibanye and Jubilee. It might make sense. Maybe Sibanye will just buy Jubilee like they did New Century Resources. Might be the best way to get a little out of this investment.

Sibanye has had major collapse of share price - but they do have ready access to capital! That will be necessary to revamp Zambia copper operations in any big way.

Amused that Sibanye has 138 Billion in revenues with 700 million shares outstanding.

JBL has 138 million in revenue ( one thousandth as much) with about 3 billion shares and counting.

How is that math going to play out. Good luck to all.

ITV: We have veered off the rails a bit on this thread. Nice to have your steady hand.

Yeah, Discord has veered off the rails a bit. That happens. Still lots of expertise and great information - but more chaff to sort through.

A little increase in the share price does improve the mood and a sustained uptrend would sure be nice. Still please do remember that JBL shares were at 20 pence in May 2021, at 15 pence in May 2022, and at 9.5 pence in May 2023. We still have a ways to go before total euphoria should break out.

The two companies are tied together in the near term so that is good. My timing on my lesser investment in NHE so far has been quite good.

The percentage carry for each block was clearly stated upfront when the bid round was announced, so everyone had that information before making bid decisions and bid proposals.