Member Info for Scott22

I have been to a lot of Annual Meetings. They cannot have a free flowing agenda of things to discuss. In fact they cannot discuss a single item that is not in the public domain, meaning an RNS is needed before the annual meeting if anything new is to be discussed. . But that seldom happens because companies very rarely use the AGM for an operations update. The AGM is just not usually a good venue for that. I think they will announce Lorna, and maybe give a date for an Operations update in near future, with RNS before that. Of course they will have to do a RNS immediately for anything material, and after everything that has happened, that would definitely include a signed contract for a rig.

Everyone is getting a little frustrated. Fatigue is setting in.

You are right HM that it is a good spot to top off, with shares undervalued and possibilities just ahead. Joey and others are right in pointing out that we have all had a mighty long "buying opportunity". BoomBoom is right we are drifting despite what we perceive as good things right ahead (Cascadura on-line and Royston side tract results.

Dunderhead is right in wanting management to step up their game. I also agree with him that it is just too easy to blame everything on Trinidad culture and people.

My take as a long term (and suffering to some degree) investor is: It is a great story. The geology is on our side and XM is superior. The story includes short term, mid term, and long term promise. The story is intact. All the delays and frustrations do not reflect any part of the story falling apart. TXP is a buy under US$1.00. I try not to overthink it beyond all that.

Colin will make out okay - I am sure of that. I am wondering if we will make out okay. Not so far, for sure.

Drilling for primary helium is a kind of new deal and maybe Baker Hughes would like to gain some experience. They sort of implied that was the case.

Dunderhead: No need to feel shot down by Discord group. Having read all your posts there it is pretty much a self-inflicted wound if you feel that way. Everyone really gets your point about the timelines. (they are not deadlines). Your point is valid and that problem has contributed to a valuation gap. They Discord members get it. They will still get it if you bring it up again and again. Some might get testy about the repetition (the board is called discord and not discourse) but they still like you and appreciate your input. And I know that you like the depth and breadth of information shared there - you even state directly it is one of the best. It was a hot mess when the company badly underestimated what was being asked of them to get environmental clearance to develop the Cascadura field. That led to timelines that were missed badly. That delay even led to a totally unfortunate secondary offering. That was a huge negative consequence. Before that it was a semi-hot mess when Coho pipeline took way too long and then Shell threw unanticipated wrench into the works at the very end. But the two current items of importance and urgency - 1. getting cascadura facility built, commissioned, and producing gas and condensate, and 2. getting Star Valley rig humming at Royston 1-ST, kicking off a continuous drilling program - are actually moving along quite nicely with no significant delays at this point that will have any negative consequences. Arguing what "about January 25th" means is not that helpful when you have a picture of the Star Valley rig sitting on the Royston pad all rigged up with the mast up - just waiting on a final sign off.

For others, the links to Discord expire quickly (7 days) but it is really pretty easy to join. Even at my advanced age.

Try it.

https://discord.gg/GJxXvGY8

I have to admit that Sarah Lowther was pretty forceful in expressing her disappointment with execution of plan and the conduct of operations by both He1 and DM. Essentially asking why should we trust you to deliver a rig now now when you have failed a few times after promising the same thing. The negative slant was especially noteworthy because Helium One paid for the presentation. Sort of an S/M component like paying someone to whip you. Like 50 shades of helium.

XM has already explained it - a couple of years ago

Quite a bit of historical info on the blocks they have acquired in one of Xavier's previous works

https://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2020/11293moonan/ndx_moonan.pdf

Share price sort of slip sliding away all day back toward a possible flat day. But there are still 2 hours left so maybe TXP can hold on to a couple of pennies of gain. Or even bounce end of day.

newboots: "Sniffing around TXP . Can't shake my initial reaction that Coho and Cascadura uplift/projections are more than baked in at £130m mcap. Am I wrong ?"

Discord has lots of information. Try the Cascadura-cec thread which has the complete Cascadura development plan.
Cascadura field is a 500 BCF to 1 TCF field that is sitting next to a major pipeline. It can be drained by 5-8 conventional wells that will produce for decades. The NGC is paying for a connecting 20 inch pipeline to the wellhead. Payment is for production at the wellhead. Production begins at 60 mmcf/day, ramps to 90 mmcf/day with optimization of the initial two wells, and then jumps to 200 mmcf/day after 3-5 development wells are drilled. After that no more drilling and production will be only slowly decreasing for 20-30 years. Overhead operating cost after build out will be .05 cents per MCF. Then there is the condensate (6000 barrels/day) which are being stripped out for sale. There are also untested Hererra sands that are even considered in this analysis. If TXP had only cascadura field the idea of a 130 million pound market cap does not make sense in terms of valuation. If you do go to the discord board look at the upcoming-triggers and stockprice-talk threads too. As well as the cacadura, cascadura-ced, and royston threads. A lot to keep busy and gain insight. Board is monitored by J-M. He is very open to different views, but also will weed the garden a bit in terms of off track or ill informed commentary that distracts from overall board. Which is why it remains a good forum. So sniff around and you can get a lot of information. But maybe not start with is the value of coho/ fully baked in at 130 million pounds. Until you understand the ingredients of the cake.

"You haven't done your research, Scott. Recent announcement re. leaching copper sulphides is groundbreaking. As for the lead at Kabwe the situation is under government control and not JLPs. You should read more."

If you look back at Jubilee news they have talked for several years about taking a key role (in partnership not only with the country but also with UN agencies) to help clean up the massive lead tailings at Kabwe and make a difference for that community. All I am saying is hat nothing has materialized.

I am willing to believe you that there is something special about copper recovery process (leaching copper sulfides) that is proprietary and gives them a moat. I just know that several of the big players including Rio Tinto are now talking about tailing extraction and remediation as a profit center and their language does not seem much different than Jubilee at this point.

I am not being contrary. I hold a fair amount of shares. I am down moderately at this point (exactly 39.15% down with purchases between December 2020 and June 2021) after buying the story. I am not selling. I hope 2023 is good. But I have been trying to decide whether to add more so I have just been updating my due diligence and the story is not quite as clean as it was 1-2 years ago. In my opinion only. I am holding, I am not adding any here.

orrowing in 2022 to pay back debt incurred earlier is a little like taking out a new mortgage right now to refinance one you have held a couple of years. Capital markets are all tighter and interest rates higher so any expiring debt is bad news.

Read your post carefully. It does sound like an AIM archetype. There are gems here but they are rare. I have not given up on Jubilee and there are still interesting parts to the story and there are still some possibilities to grow. But it seems a little less promising than a year ago. Other companies are exploiting their own tailings. Unclear what the special sauce is that Jubilee brings to the table. They sure don't have a plan yet for cleaning up lead laden tailings, and any messing with that pile might make it worse. Maybe they have to move the town, like Chernobyl.

Sniff a little harder.

The timing of you “darkest hour is right before dawn” post was (at least for the moment) pretty timely. I posted it over on the Discord Board, giving you proper credit, before today’s little bump upwards.

Good point blubay, but don’t forget the reason why they got bubbles in mud but could not get gas to flow to the surface. There was tremendous formation damage and no integrity of the well bore because the rig was too small, the hole was too small, there was washout which destroyed any chance of gas flowing upwards, not to mention problems with fish getting stuck and having to be worked around. There was one night where DM, exhausted, fell asleep thinking everything was totally fine and woke up to find the well bore and the whole drill had fallen apart. The decision to bail almost immediately on Tai-2 was hard to understand at the time but they had rightly concluded that the drill rig and the small well bore diameter were not going to work in that particular mix of mud and clay and sand. So here we are, resource still there, but returning with a better plan forged in failure but also learnings from that failure.

Interesting that Predator is taking on the Cory Moruga block. As far as I can tell they have one employee in Trinidad Myodeen Ali who is country manager and Project Implementation Consultant for Enhanced Oil Recovery for CO2 Injection. He is experienced and knows a lot about CO2 recovery but Predator has not been drilling any wells or doing any hands on stuff in Trinidad that I can tell. Wonder what kind of discussions there have been with TXP.

Project Implementation Consultant for Enhance Oil Recovery for CO2 Injection at Predator Oil and Gas

The question what we may expect in 2023 does not have a short answer. The précis form is Cascadura gas production, Royston oil well, growing production and revenues, continuous drilling, development wells, maybe an exploration well, results of on-shore bid round.

If you want very detailed information in more organized form, join the discord TXP group.

https://discord.gg/8NW2hPDm

The "fancy" rig we are waiting for has not been doing all that well. I hope they have at the least fixed all the problem parts so it is ready to perform at high level.

This from the Invictus drilling update of December the 9th.

-Drilling progress has been delayed due to a failure of a mud motor and loss of drilling nozzles
necessitating two unplanned change outs.
This was followed by the failure of a control module of the Top Drive System (TDS), which has
since been repaired

I decided that they clearly need to pay for this well. It is certainly a binary drill and it will occur next quarter. My basis is higher than current share price. I would probably have bought some if I was a "preferred investor" with access to the placement, but that is hardly the case. I decided to put in a bid for 50,000 shares at the offer price (6 cents $ US). Had to do it as an all or none because there is a $100 commission on each trade. Cannot pay that on partial fills. I am thinking some shareholders will look at this RNS and just decide to bail and salvage something. Maybe I can catch my limit order from one of them. Shares may drift even lower (and may be worthless if this Tai 3 well is a failure) but I am willing to hang on and see if Tai is real and if the Tanzania primary helium story is real. My decision was influenced a little by the company leaders ponying up some cash for shares at the price I am willing to pay. I have not decided to buy Noble shares to spread my Tanzania bet, but I have thought about that. Good luck all. It is going to go up, or down, based on the results of this one well. This quarter. There not be any long period of suffering.

They can't wait for a capital raise to pay for part of this drill until after they have a discovery. That is not how it works. They have to have the money in hand to pay for this drill, or pay less and sweeten it with share grants (that is a piece of the company).

Otherwise what would happen if the drill was not successful. Who would give them the money to pay off the operators of the unsuccessful drill. How could they sell shares at that point. They have to have the means to pay for the drill and to pay for Baker Hughes testing crew, and also other costs that will arise.