Member Info for Scott22

Did He1 actually buy that rig, or just fix it up. Who actually owns it. When we move it to Tanzania how long do we have it for, and will it stay in country. Who will be the crew that does the drilling. What is the contract like? Baker Hughes is world class in terms of the testing and seems to be excited to be learning more themselves about primary helium wells. But you would think the drilling team will also be important likely more so. Can't test it and complete it if things do not go well. Anyway, I am betting they do have a successful drill at Tai and do prove a commercial discovery. I guess we are all betting on that, because if some one betting against it, why are they holding shares at this really important time?

At least Friday was the first day in a LONG time when all three of my AIM darlings were nicely in the blue. Hope that becomes a trend

Investing Goals: "The fact there are HE1 satellite shows of helium seeping out does that mean it's not sufficiently trapped? Or trapped elsewhere?"

Or simply filling and overflowing the trap?

One typo there. 10% would be 20 times the RHC (not DME) Steveville wells. And maybe double to triple the best recent DME Holbrook basin wells. And pressures and flow rates do make huge difference in production and revenues from a given well.

I love this line - "Only time will show if we are the only clever investors at this time."

I am hopeful here but I must admit that strategy has not been highly rewarding for me in the past.

10% helium would be absolutely over the top fantastic. They have had concentrations in some of the seeps in Tanzania in that range.

1. Helium poor natural gas field is less than 0.1% with usual range 0.02 to 0.04. Helium in air i s0 .0005%
2. Helium rich natural gas field is anything greater than 0.5% and helium can be extracted from such gas commercially at current prices. (or below current prices)
3. Best natural gas fields like some areas of Hugoton in Kansas have 2-3% helium (occasionally wells higher peaking at 6-7%) and were basis of US leading world in production of helium for many years.
4. Holbrook basin in Arizona is a primary helium field (mainly nitrogen and helium with only small amounts of other gas). Several old wells produced at 8-10% (current world records) and two current DMS wells have 4% and 7% levels. (those are shallow and produce at modest flow rates)
5. Most primary helium wells in Saskatchewan have 0.4 to 0 .8% helium, mainly helium and nitrogen with small amounts of other gasses. Royal Helium first production is planned for April 2023 at at Steveville which is at 0.42% helium. (but highly pressurized and huge flow of 15 mmcf/day). Their huge Nazare find (they have not yet drilled first production well) is about 0.7%. That is also overpressurized and will flow at high rates . There may be some areas with priamary helium 1-2% in southern Saskatchewan.
6. In US there are helium rich areas in Colorado, Northern Montana and in Canada in Alberta and Saskatchewan. There are some helium rich natural gas wells and some more primary helium areas. Best wells of either type might have 2-3% helium.
7. The regeneron field in South Africa is moving ahead. It is primary helium with 2-3% helium. LInde is heavily involved in the production and processing. It has 25 BCF of reserves.

So anyway, 10% helium would be truly massive. Twenty times a commercial natural gas well. Twenty times the DME Steveville wells. Four times the best natural gas wells. Four times the regeneron Free State field. Equal to the best Holbrook Basin wells ever. 10% is not only world class but best ever in world class.

They are using a cryogenic process where they boil off the gasses at different vapor points. Helium first and should be very pure. They plan to use the methane to run the plant. They hope they can sell some food grade CO2 and maybe some hydrogen (not sure about that). The vast majority of the economic impact will be from the helium.

the triple star: They will be lucky enough to get helium on production. Warren Buffett is trying to do a lithium brine operation at Salton Sea in California. Capital needed is about a billion to get a large commercial lithium brine operation going, and they are having a lot of trouble trouble. RHC has a few million dollars total. Warren can finance whatever he wants. Andrew cannot. With combination of high interest rates and recession , conventional financing has really dried up.

ITV: Saskatchewan has similar goals as Helium i - they want to supply 10% of world helium demand by 2030. Ther is NO problem exporting it. Right now it has to go to Colorado for liquification. Province wants own liquification plant to facilitate export. .

At Steveille about 0.4%. At shallow Climax and Nazare more like 0.6%. This is primary helium but not like Holbrook basin in Arizona or the levels we hope to see at TAI and other Tanzania prospects.

I don’t really buy the idea TXP is fairly valued. 1-2 TCF of onshore gas cannot be bought for current market cap. That said shares can be undervalued for many reasons and stay undervalued for a long time. I am glass half full at this moment and I fully expect a really good 2023 for TXP share price. Will be a big year. Nice story in Guardian this morning about TXP intentions to bid on 2-3 blocks in upcoming bid round. Bids close Dec31 and are announced by April 1. Cascadura on line will be the big one. (wall of cash finally arrives). Royston Deep has great potential. Bid round. Continuous drilling. Series of development wells with a couple of exploratory wells thrown in. That is all in 2023. I think we will all be surprised by the fast pace of the work on Cascadura facility.

Don’t they get $2.13 or something like that at Coho. It is very dry gas (essentially pure methane) with lower energy content. Price for Cascadura gas will be higher, even after most of the liquids (especially the condensate)is stripped off

Earnings report for Q 3 will have an opertaions update. Will be about a month. Should say soemthing about relized proce for Coho pipeline, progress at Cascadura, and also drilling plans. They might say something earlier if they do a presentation. If I were them I would wait for the next operations update so they have a little more to talk about with respect to Cascadura and maybe they can even announce the spud date and location for the first well of the continuous drilling program.

I think you missed my point. I did not want them to transport the rig before the audit. Just to have explored the process enough to have confidence they could use it if it checked out. Hoping they did some of that due diligence. They plan to go to Kenya personally to interface with the bureaucracy. Hoping these y can handle everything effectively and efficiently.

I guess some challenges to be expected, but kind of odd they would spend that much time and money doing an audit (and some repairs) without some confidence they could actually use their target and now proved fit for service rig. Hope they have been working both sides of this (rig audit and export approval) on parallel paths and glad they are going to Kenya to do their best to get the rig free to move without adding more delays.

itv: I was defending you on principal (not that you need it) for your real value and your discernment and ability to cut through some of the noise, and not because I thought you would be offended by the “looney itv “ name calling.. That may be somewhat akin to calling you crazy - without the like a fox qualifier.

My obsession is just from gradually adjusting to AIM wild wild west. I have been here a couple of years with a couple of holdings. There is a lot of carnage and just a little pumping.

On US market most shares with price under $5 share price eventually go bust - they are called penny stocks but they are not literally penny stocks, until the end. Here it is very different. Some AIM penny stocks even graduate to bigger board if the company is successful. I certainly do not want to split the shares. Just saying that because I have personally benefited from share splits of growing companies and that cannot happen here. I do realize that a stock going from 1 pence to 10 pence or from 10 pence to a pound is the same as going from a pound to 10 pounds. And that a penny dividend per shares on 10 shares is the same as a dime dividend on one share. But what I am noticing (and was the point of my post) is that the spread is much wider on a 8 pence share than on an 8 pound share. And the 8 pence share can drop to 4 cents on bad news a little more quickly than the 8 pound share will drop to 4 pounds. Of course both can drop to zero on especially bad news. Anyway, won't mention share count again though I may have promised that before. It is bit of an obsession but I am trying to get over it. Appreciate constructive and corrective feedback.

Don't even say "leaking". Until the pipeline is fully tested and has passed its final safety check and is flowing gas.

I am not saying that I am not adjusting the the AIM market where billions of shares are commonplace. Just saying it does create a few little math challenges when thinking about potential for share splits or dividends. JLP has about the same number of shares as Tesla. I guess that makes total sense to some.

Maybe so but: a one pence per quarter dividend still would cost them $108 million a year and their revenues are $140 million a year and their cash flow about $20 million a year. It will be a long time a coming.

Maybe Canada finally got Twitter.