The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
happysparrow: I would not be happy if I read this as showing the subthrust is not productive. It actually says the opposite is very likely. There are sands in subthrust that tested positive by wireline for hydrocarbons. That has be be confirmed by further testing. The intermediate sands show hydrocarbons by wireline testing and previously flowed 94% light oil. The overthrust showed hydrocarbons by wireline testing, had big water cut at Royston 1 but overthrust was entered 330 feet higher here.
There is nothing negative here. Need more test data and need LT production test. But to say this RNS indicates subthrust is non-productive is a little ridiculous.
.....now DM is out of the equation, I wonder if he is about to stock up on He1 with what he already knows?....
That would be unusual. To not buy very much when he was running the show as CEO, and then load up majorly after being fired. Must admit I have not seen that play.
Thanks Ginmunger. . that does make sense as another way to quickly grow production and revenues (at Royston field) since a few oil wells can be put on long term test. I agree that things are just getting started now (Coho was an appetizer) but the share price is not going to react to "just getting started" but only to quarter by quarter substantial growth in production and revenues. In US I would call it a Missouri stock - the state motto is show me. But after that growth starts to play out then there will additional attention again from news items that are forward looking and promise bright future. But right now items like that are not likely to move the needle. (asset swap, new blocks awarded in on-shore bid round, spudding of new wells, even new discoveries with uncertain timelines to production and revenues. (except maybe a Kraken discovery which might blow the roof off but that won't be drilled this year).
So there are only two current items of importance. Production and revenues from Cascadura, huge and still by far most important. And a good result at Royston that can god on immediate production and also can confirm beyond any doubt exceptional commercially of the Royston field, which so far has only one discovery well that had huge technical problems and could not be produced. Commerciality is a step beyond discovery. Production is a step beyond commerciality.
Remember that I used the term stagnating and got a lot of push back. I think stagnating may be a generous description. There is work to be done to get back on a steady growth path. Could happen, potential is there. But not happening at the moment.
Royston could be worth as much as Cascadura but the production ramp will take a whole lot longer so that worth will not be reflected in the share price nearly as soon. Valuation is going to reflect growing production, revenues and cash flow.
We should get huge bump in production immediately when 60 mmcf/day coems on line, another bump las year progresses as production is tweaked to 90 mmcf/day from those first two wells, and then a huge further bump in 2024 as new cascadura development wells are drilled, come on-line, and boost production to 200 mmdf/day (with proportional increase in liquids as that all occurs).
I thought that was meant ironically, should have known. It was actually pretty clear. It was pretty amazing for him to get his Master's from University of Leeds, including getting his thesis accepted, in less than a year. And more importantly, he is still curious, still humble, still a great teacher dedicated to his students. His recent post on his FB page about a field trip with first year Geoscience students had a great series of photos.
https://www.facebook.com/xavier.moonan
Good discussion today. Corpse I agree with everything you say, expect that XM truly IS an expert. Have you listened to his talks about potential of off-shore turbidite sands off guyana and surinam. That talk was a few years BEFORE Liza-1 discovery well. And he has been intrigued about Hererra sands on-shore trinidad since before that (who else thought a 500 BCF pool of gas - Cascadura - was laying adjacent to the main gas pipeline next to a valve station) , and about what may lay deep to the Hererra sands on trend with the guyna/surinam pools that had not even been discovered when he first started talking about it.
I think they will say that they cannot really say anything, but hope to say something pretty soon. That is the stuff of annual meetings. I did sign up to attend AGM virtually. I have a lot of shares, worth very little money, and deeply in the red.
Look at the one year chart, shares have been a heck of a lot worse than stagnating since bouncing up smartly. Talk about a reversal! Look at the growth rates in revenues over past 4 years, Up, up, up, and flat. That is stagnating.
Our job is not "tiny" in terms of facilities for production of 200 mmcf of natural gas and 5000 plus barrels of condensate per day. That would not be a "tiny' job in North Dakota. And it would cost money to get it on line. Especially in a remote location. Add to that no new gas production facilities have been built on shore Trinidad in decades, excepting little Coho, which likely could be called tiny with dry gas and a smaller simpler operation. Once approved (that delay was really annoying), Cascadura is chugging forward. I have no particular problems with that as long as they keep pushing and get it done. I also hated parking the rig but the rig is unparked. And turning. Also agree with the poster who mentioned that the reserves report won't be a positive. Next year maybe but not this year. Hard to build reserves with zero wells drilled during past year.
Since May of 2021 the share price has been straight down and the company itself has been stagnating. Chart looks ugly as sin. And the experience of owning the shares has felt worse. But hope springs eternal. Seems undervalued at this price. Copper may provide a boost.
I have been to a lot of Annual Meetings. They cannot have a free flowing agenda of things to discuss. In fact they cannot discuss a single item that is not in the public domain, meaning an RNS is needed before the annual meeting if anything new is to be discussed. . But that seldom happens because companies very rarely use the AGM for an operations update. The AGM is just not usually a good venue for that. I think they will announce Lorna, and maybe give a date for an Operations update in near future, with RNS before that. Of course they will have to do a RNS immediately for anything material, and after everything that has happened, that would definitely include a signed contract for a rig.
Everyone is getting a little frustrated. Fatigue is setting in.
You are right HM that it is a good spot to top off, with shares undervalued and possibilities just ahead. Joey and others are right in pointing out that we have all had a mighty long "buying opportunity". BoomBoom is right we are drifting despite what we perceive as good things right ahead (Cascadura on-line and Royston side tract results.
Dunderhead is right in wanting management to step up their game. I also agree with him that it is just too easy to blame everything on Trinidad culture and people.
My take as a long term (and suffering to some degree) investor is: It is a great story. The geology is on our side and XM is superior. The story includes short term, mid term, and long term promise. The story is intact. All the delays and frustrations do not reflect any part of the story falling apart. TXP is a buy under US$1.00. I try not to overthink it beyond all that.