Member Info for Scott22

Someone at Kantor timed the big sells last week less than perfectly.

Target was Holbrook basin in Arizona which produced primary Helium from Pinto Dome for many years and was touted as the "Saudi Arabia of helium." They drilled some wells and built an expensive processing plant powered by a big solar complex. Then the wells would not flow, they couldn't get permits to do recompletions. The dismantled the plant, bought a marginal natural gas field in New Mexico, moved the plant there, have some natural gas wells with elevated helium levels (still under .5% I think), are trying to extract the helium with their plant and sell the natural gas. The big shift all happened suddenly, it is kind of a weird project, who knows if it will work. Management a bit odd too. They are not on the edge of BK at the moment, but nothing there that appeals to me anyway.

Trolley Dolly: You would be amazed at how many people do not understand that. They are very happy to see a share jump up 50% - after a 50% fall. Many of them could do the calculation if they put pen to paper or entered the numbers into their calculator or spreadsheet. But still they seem to be happy to see that example play out.

ShipweckSheep: You are totally right. But averaging down in a truly desperate situation is a difficult choice. It can be throwing good money after bad - or in the case of massive dilution trying to catch a particularly deadly falling knife. If Lorna does pull a rabbit out of a hat and proves a commercial discovery with this well, then averaging down will prove after the fact to have been a hugely good idea. In fact I did do that in this case, adding over 500,000 shares at or slightly above the placing price for total of about 1500 pounds . But my new basis is US .04 cents and I am still down 84% after today. I almost certainly will not come out even here but I may recover a portion of my losses. A LTH with a sizable position could not be rescued by the placing without a very sizable ante. In my case to reduce my basis to 1 pence I would have had to buy 1.6 million more shares for another 4000 pounds at the exact placing price. If I had done that I would break even if the market cap jumps to US $35 million. As it is I need a market cap of US$ 140 million to break even. That difference was not worth an extra 4000 pounds to me at the time as I was not sure the company would be able to survive. I'm still not positive of that. But a commercial well would make everything look so very much better.

It is very good to have positive news and a rally. But remember the math. If a stock goes down 50%, it has to go up 100% to get back to even. I learned that early in my investing education. But if a stock goes down 95%, then it has to go up 2,000 percent to get to even. That is a huge hurdle and why massive dilution really destroys long term holders and benefits only the ones who buy in with the massive offering of cheap new shares. The majority of shares of He1 now outstanding were purchased at 0.25 pence. That makes it a massive hurdle for anyone who bought in at 5 pence (they are down 95% and have to bounce 2,000 percent to break even) and worse yet for those who bought at 10 pence (they are 97.5% and have to recover 4,000 percent to break even.

At 1 pound the market cap would be 3.4 billion pounds, about half of the projected global helium market in 2030. Cannot happen without a reverse split. 5-10 pence could happen but even that a stretch goal. A buyout price of 3 pence would be a market cap of 105 million and give the majority of holders (who bought in recent placement) a 12 bagger. A buyout price of 5 pence would be market cap of 175 million and would give majority of shareholders (buyers at placement) a 20 fold return. That seems possible if Helium One discovers a huge commercial helium resource. Anyway any potential for LTH who bought in double digits of pence to have huge returns has been dashed. Nonetheless it is ALWAYS nice to see a strong rally based on (hopefully) exploration success and contribution to development of a major new resource industry in Tanzania and the culmination of a long dream. Sure a heck of a lot better than failure and BK and vultures picking at carcass. Congrats to all shareholders (unfortunately to some more than others - those who just bought) and kudos to Lorna and other principals if this second well proves commercial!

5.4 million shares is maybe "not too shabby" but the total purchase price for those 5.4 million shares was under US $20,000.

Dollar amount traded was quite shabby.

We do remember back when Helium One went to 30 pence quickly...... but also remember that it went to 30 pence quickly BEFORE the shares were diluted by 90%. That would be the equivalent of going to 3 pence quickly now.

I can't wait for it to get to .51 cents. Then it will show up in my Schwab account as $0 .01 instead of $0.00 which is demoralizing. They round to the nearest cent.

Still I have made a little money today on my 835,000 shares of Helium One with most of those accumulated during this huge placing. My lowest price is 200k at 0.25 cents which is 0.19 pence. (one of best buys in US during this time) Still not as much gain today as from my 1000 shares of IBM which are up $20 a share today. So my gain on all of my 800,000 plus Helium One are the same as my gain on 90 of my IBM shares.

I can't wait for it to get to .0051 cents. Then it will show up in my Schwab account as .01 instead of .00 which is demoralizing. They round to the nearest cent.

Still I have made a little money today on my 835,000 shares of Helium One with most of those accumulated during this huge placing. My lowest price is 200k at 0.25 cents which is 0.19 pence. (one of best buys in US during this time Still not as much gain today as from my 1000 shares of IBM which are up $20 a share today. So my gain on all of my 800,000 plus Helium One are the same as my gain on 90 of my IBM shares.

No placing here (could not raise significant capital at this price) but there might be some kind of JV or off take agreement if the results are highly commercial, or someone (a big international energy company like Total or Exxon or a major industrial gas company like Linde) will buy the whole company for a well funded deep pockets shot at developing a helium industry in Tanzania capable of supplying 10% of global helium needs. Market cap is 10 million pounds. 100 million pounds would be small price to control this helium play, once proven commercial. Ain't much per share but better by far than BK.

If they had drilled this well first and waited on TAI, and had done it with zero rig problems, the shares would be over 20 pence. Oh well.

Bid is at .036, ask at .040. (US).

I still can't get over the share price in fractional cents and the 3.4 Billion of shares. The bid is for 600 shares at .036 or a whopping $US 0.216 of capital looking to be deployed. A full 21 cents looking for a home. And by the way on Schwab there is a $50 trading fee.

It ain't good. Especially when the cache of virtually worthless shares is in the billions. Trading in pre-revenue microcap commodity companies with no ready access to capital is not for the faint of heart. When it gets to this point it is likely to end badly. Still it was a good story. Still may be a good story. But shareholders not likely to do well.

Pulsar will spud their appraisal well in Minnesota (my home) on Feb 2. All set to drill it to 2250 -2500 feet in 4 weeks while monitoring He concentrations, then have Baker Hughes run open hole wireline, then complete it and fully test with flow tests and pressure tests which will give reserves and may prove commerciality. This is a high pressure reservoir with 10% helium and a wonderful impermeable seal. Whole process will take 6-8 weeks and it is all set up and paid for. Company has no debt and 74 million total shares. I am sure that Thomas Abraham-James (Helium One co-founder) is glad he is focused on this MN project and not facing the situation that Lorna is facing in Tanzania. Of course the appraisal well isn't a done deal until it is finished and performs as they hope. And Lorna could still pull a rabbit out of the hat if they have a discovery. But I would rather be in Thomas' current shoes.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pulsar-date-commencement-appraisal-well-110000467.html

Nobody is desperate to get into a 0.002 pence stock (with 3.4 B share count) in a company teetering on the brink. Just saying.

You are right it is a game of chance. But maybe not dice. 7 come 11 is 23%. Boxcars (double 6's is 3 %. Snake Eyes (double 1's) is also 3%.

This game of chance is closer to a lottery pick in terms of odds.

Total on dice Pairs of dice Probability

2 1+1 1/36 = 3%

3 1+2, 2+1 2/36 = 6%

4 1+3, 2+2, 3+1 3/36 = 8%

5 1+4, 2+3, 3+2, 4+1 4/36 = 11%

6 1+5, 2+4, 3+3, 4+2, 5+1 5/36 = 14%

7 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1 6/36 = 17%

8 2+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+2 5/36 = 14%

9 3+6, 4+5, 5+4, 6+3 4/36 = 11%

10 4+6, 5+5, 6+4 3/36 = 8%

11 5+6, 6+5 2/36 = 6%

12 6+6 1/36 = 3%

Start up company makes progress and continues to show promise. More money is raised at same or preferably slightly higher share price with core group of original (and loyal) investors still buying the story and buying more shares, and some new investors coming on board as well.

It is not supposed to be a situation where you wipe out 95% of original investors and strong supporters by issuing 2.5 Billion new shares at a quarter of a pence, bringing in wild west group of speculators playing the lottery. Some of us original investors have added significant volume of these cheap new shares. But we are also playing the lottery at this point. It is gambling, not investing. Some gambles pay off, but you cannot count on it.

No they don't have production equipment. They need a plant to process and purify the gas, either a membrane type or a cryongenic type. They can buy one from Linde or other industrial gas producer for US $20-50 million. Then they need a plant to produce liquid helium for long distance transport. Costs more than that. Year or two is best guess.

Obviously they need a big time JV partner or a contract with an industrial gas company.

Nothing much going on in US. There were four trades all day.

30k traded for .0029 at 9:40.

35k traded for .0035 at 11:58

400 shares traded for .0046 (cost of trade must have been under $2.00!)

45k traded for .0061 at 2:46 pm

Pretty random stuff. Someone probably stuck in a market order and caught the offer (very wide spread during day) . Or they were caught by a limit order that computer that generated a limit at the offer (which happens in some algorithms when trading low priced shares.).

Anyway nothing in US suggests anything other that some weird trades in a quarter penny a share stock.

There was huge chatter about that at the time but Paul was just presenting a general optimistic review with no previously undisclosed specific negatives. Market reacted badly because the time line was pushed back a little. No one at the time felt there was anything that was clearly insider trading by JW. Just bad timing for the rest of us and for Paul too who was trying to paint a rosy picture.