Member Info for schlemiel

We have James Pratt (DOGD) from the NTG presenting this Wed - it will be interesting if we get any fresh insights or updates....news-flow and updates like this should be coming thick and fast here on in -

https://energyclubnt.com.au/event-3175069

'30 Jan 2019 -

The event will feature two guest presentations sharing an overview of the onshore gas implementation plan progress and how we can grow positive business and community benefits for natural gas development.

With the release of its Final Report, the Scientific Inquiry into Hydraulic Fracturing in the Northern Territory determined that provided all recommendations in the Report are adopted and implemented, the environmental, social, health, cultural and economic risks associated with hydraulic fracturing of shale reservoirs could be reduced to an acceptable level. On 17 April 2018, the government accepted all 135 recommendations and lifted the moratorium on unconventional gas in the Northern Territory.

James Pratt, Executive Director Onshore Gas Development at the Department of Primary Industry and Resources will join us to share and update on the NT Government’s progress of implementing recommendations in 2018, what is required to be finalised to commence exploration this year and the progression to production.'

Nerves

I hope you don't mind but I have taken the liberty of cutting and pasting this article to the FOG thread on AD-VFN. A higher degree of exposure can never be a bad thing

Many thanks

nerves -

You're a star fella. Your efforts are very much appreciated. A crap Sunday's become a lot less 'crappier' !

I have a small holding here and fingers crossed Iclaprim secures FDA approval. All the evidence to date points to approval but if in the unlikely event that approval is withheld (and gaining approval is not a given) then the price will get crushed (60-70% fall) and therefore my exposure is limited until after the FDA decision.

If they do secure approval then the question to be asked is as the market already 'priced-in' FDA approval. Don't assume that approval will lead to massive rise in the share price. It may or it may not. I have no idea how the market will treat approval. Yes, a rise is inevitable but by what percentage? Don't get caught in the event of approval withheld so limit your exposure and don't dive into the stock first thing on the morning they do secure FDA approval...let things settle down and let the profit takers leave the stock as there will lots of them no matter what people say.

If FDA approval is given then I will have my small holding and will look to add in the weeks ahead following approval but I will not dive in immediately. I have done this before and ending up sitting on losses.

Following approval (if) then we should see commercialisation quite quickly (months) and in time a takeover...

It's a tough decision but remember there'll be opportunities to add to your holding when the dust settles and the stock returns to normal trading. Of course approval news may come at any time of the day (overnight, sometimes) so we could be caught unawares. I prefer a RNS during trading hours as that catches the MM's unawares and can afford a window to add at cheaper prices. 7am RNS's are a bind

just be careful...there are no sure-fire bets in the market

https://finance.zacks.com/drug-approval-mean-higher-stock-price-8390.html

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-road-less-travelled-0jpbphhpj

Brian Carey
January 27 2019, 12:01am
The Sunday Times

A road less travelled

If the engineering matches the geology, Falcon boss Philip O’Quigley will hold the ‘holy grail’ of shale gas in Australia’s Northern Territory

O’Quigley, chief executive of Falcon, now based in Dubin, has thrown all his energy into the explorer’s quest to tap into reserves of shale gas in the Northern Territory’s vast Beetaloo sub-basin
(TOTAJLA/FERGAL PHILLIPS)

Philip O’Quigley was travelling in the back of a rented car one day in December 2011 when his BlackBerry pinged. O’Quigley, finance director of Providence Resources at the time, was accompanying Tony O’Reilly Jr, the oil explorer’s chief executive, on a roadshow of financial institutions in London. Providence was looking to raise up to $100m.

By the time the car had stopped outside the offices of the first potential investor, O’Quigley turned to O’Reilly and apologised: “I am sorry, I cannot do this.”

..........unfortunately, the rest is subscription...maybe someone can gain access and post the rest of this article

The media roadshow is now firmly up and running

by the balls. The NTG is bankrupt and that gives Canberra huge leverage over their activities including the development of Beetaloo. Gunner's fiscal arrogance and indeed recklessness (Labour's client state politics always leads to bankruptcy) as inadvertently assisted the resumption of fracking and allowed the potential commercialisation of
Falcon's 30% stake.

-
In his November email, Mr Vowles said if the NT Government was a private business it "would be trading insolvent".

"It would have closed up, sold the house, sold the cars and be bankrupt," he said.

When asked by reporters if she (Manison - NTG Treasurer) asked Mr Frydenberg for a bail-out, she replied: "We had a chat with regards to different mechanism I think could assist the NT; I will always fight for the Territory's fair share when it comes to funding, such as infrastructure investment in areas that will create jobs and diversify our economy."

Following today's meeting between the two treasurers in Melbourne, Mr Frydenberg said he would "await further advice" from Ms Manison.

"I had a constructive discussion with the Northern Territory Treasurer this morning about the economic challenges facing the Territory," he said.

-

The quid pro quo is simple. Fracking is going to happen or Canberra will force the NTG into bankruptcy and out of office. It's a win win for all fracking companies in the NTG

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-19/nt-government-angst-leaked-emails-report-budget-crisis/10635228

'without electricity'..obviously

'The program will assess the environmental safety of extracting gas from the region as the Coalition Government seeks to ensure that Australia can access our plentiful resources in a responsible way,” Minister Frydenberg said.

The 28,000 square kilometre Beetaloo Sub-basin lies southeast of Katherine in the Northern Territory and was selected for its high prospectivity, demonstrated shale gas flows and its proximity to new pipeline infrastructure – all of which make it an excellent candidate to deliver new gas supplies to the east coast gas market.

Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Matt Canavan said initial estimates suggest the NT could be sitting on a massive gas resource of more than 200 years’ supply.'

-

Look at Frydenberg's language. He makes specific reference to 'Australia can access our plentiful resources'. Not the NT's resources. Not the NTG's resources. Not the Maritime Unions or eco-fascists resources but the Commonwealth's resources. He is essentially stating that the Beetaloo gas asset now comes under the jurisdiction of the Commonwealth government and they are determined to get this gas developed and delivered to the market.

Blackouts again last week in Melbourne. 200k homes with electricity. welcome to the world of eco-friendly power generation. Without gas and fossil fuels you can expect this level of inconvenience on a daily basis

https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/geological-bioregional-assessment-of-beetaloo-sub-basin/

And don't forget those tips in the press that will no doubt arrive, new broker notes, possible rumours of other developments..the price drivers here are many quite simply as a result of the gargantuan size of Beetaloo and its importance

This isn't about Falcon, it's about the development of a world class shale gas asset that's been described as a 'strategic asset' of 'national importance' by the Australian Commonwealth Government. Yes, drilling restarts in June but we will see momentum and news-flow from all angles as we move towards June. The market always looks forward and try's to price-in value and I believe that's what we will see here

For a start we have Steph Stonier (Origin) up in 3 weeks time in Darwin to update on events. I think she was at the NT fracking inquiry with the one and only David Close, now sadly departed...to Santos

Of course we could have setbacks on the political front. It's impossible to predict but I'd rather be invested here NOW rather than trying to catch spike on some left-field news out of the blue that changes the dynamic

You pays yer money

gla

we need a London based, big hitter broker to issue a buy note. DAVY are great but simply do not have the clout to generate the interest needed to spread the FOG message to a wider audience

buy above offer...that's a decent wedge

'Origin's Stephanie Stonier will also share an overview of the Beetaloo basin discovery, current activities and timelines, and potential industry opportunity that may come from developing the resource.'/.....

Now, this should be very interesting. A route to commercialisation will allow the market to price correctly our 30% though of course this will take time but any info regarding this would be welcome

USA Shale Gas Mission - Industry forum

13 Feb 2019 - Wirraway Business Lounge - Darwin Airport

In October 2018, Energy Club NT, with the support of the Northern Territory Government, led a delegation of businesses to the USA on a shale gas learning mission. This industry forum will invite our members and guests to participate an open discussion with participants about their experience and outcomes.

Origin's Stephanie Stonier will also share an overview of the Beetaloo basin discovery, current activities and timelines, and potential industry opportunity that may come from developing the resource.

The USA Shale delegation was made up of a wide demographic of local businesses and stakeholders representing the Northern Territory onshore gas industry. The delegation travelled with the aim of learning about shale gas development from the Marcellus and Utica plays in Pennsylvania and Bakken play in North Dakota, now at least 10-15 years ahead of the current status of the Beetaloo basin resource and Northern Territory onshore gas development.

-

https://energyclubnt.com.au/event-3228387

cheers new

More the point that Empire are also back on the ground which suggests they're also ready to go also.

Origin. Falcon. Tick
Empire. Tick
Santos. Let's see when they release their plans for the future

I'm constantly looking for positive signs of progress and at times negative signs of slippage from the political class. No negatives so far

Market Makers now on FOG's order book. It used to be 4. They must be expecting an increase in share trading activity in the not too distant future

This is a PDF from Empire, new today

http://empireenergygroup.net/wp-content/uploads/STRATEGY-UPDATE-AND-LETTER-TO-SHAREHOLDERS.pdf

stacked on the offer, again.......who's the cheeky monkee'?

oh well, it is what it is

The market's now got a pretty definite date in mind on drilling restart and drilling restart means the conduit to commercialisation is now firmly open...and investors know this as well so any material fall back in price will be bought into...expectations will start to rise as we move forward week after week and little snippets of news from the NT, Beetaloo, Canberra will start to seep through..the starting pistol's been fired