Member Info for schlemiel

Zoros - You fail to understand the importance of capex in your analysis. Choosing to focus on what's contained within (and even these figures are subjective and open to change) is only half the picture. The capital required to extract (mining), transport (rail-road), process (facilities ala Telfer) and then deliver to customer can be crushing to the point where some companies falter and wither under the strain of this inability to raise the funding (SXX is the prime example here)

The relative capex requirements of Alpala and Havieron are at opposite ends of the spectrum. For GGP they can raise their capex requirements ($50m) in the blink of an eye, SOLG need around $3bn-$4bn. The difference is huge, HUGE. SOLG will not be able to raise that capital on its own and don't forget this is Ecuador and any capital provider will want a risk premium for their funding to reflect the political risk. Australia it ain't

Havieron has Telfer processing facility, we have Newcrest (the best block cave miner in the world) as our partner, we have a high grade discovery with upside and potential elsewhere in the discovery, low AISC, low capex and low political risk...and our surrounding tenements are highly prospective

I'm not dissing SOLG. I believe it will be taken out well before mining. mather knows this as well. He's playing a waiting game. SOLG shareholders will enjoy a decent pay day and I wish them well

I hope it all comes good. Holders deserve a decent pay day

Focus on the market capitalisation or equity value of the company as per its share price multiplied by diluted number of shares in issue. It is the market value of the company NOT the share price that is of prime importance at any point in time

TMT

Either way, it's all very positive irrespective of what direction we are taken..cheers fella

thanks mate

Is GGP expected to incur part of cost of the exploration decline of the Havieron project as per the % holding split?

tks

A hefty cash payment (monetisation) is far preferable to a taxed, unpredictable, unsecure dividend. At least if the cash is in your bank account and under your control whereas a dividend is at the behest of a party (Newcrest) beyond your control and there's no guarantee that such a dividend will be paid year on year.

Give me the capital and I'll invest it according to my own requirements

top stuff fella...gives all a real apprecation of what we have here

I am assuming that the proliferation of closely aligned dril holes increases the confidence that they have hit valuable ore

Our wishes regarding the future direction of GGP are filtered through the prism of personal circumstances. In the long run we're all dead as Groucho Marx once remarked or was it Jonah Keynes, so wouldn't mind a proper wad of cash in the next year or two!

Yes, there could be an algo bot working those small trades but I cannot work out why. The idea that a small trader would sit at their desk buying or selling 50 shares here and 100 shares there isn't a credible assertion. Bugger if i know

I watched GGP's intra-day share price yesterday and I (my opinion) thought I saw some correlation between it and the POG. Is the GGP share price now tracking the POG? Who knows

Another question

What data is required to determined the FMV of GGP's 5%? How can this be determined when havieron (valuable ore) itself may well continue to expand over time.

So is the FMV a point in time valuation based on all known data and how can future increases in the reserve base of Havieron be accounted for in the FMV? A royatly arrangement of some kind?

I'm not au fait with how these things work....just throwing out naive ideas

This is an exploration decline to assess, understand and explore the Havieron ore body. The PFS is something different altogether. It is more an exercise in investment analysis for a specific project. Yes, information gleaned from the decline will be used in the PFS and FS but I don't believe Newcrest need a PFS to start drilling the decline

It hasn't yet been formally announced but the decision to mine Havieron has surely been (inadvertently) confirmed by today's job advert from Newcrest. The decision to mine is surely a price sensitive company event demanding a company announcement. That's why I was surprised to see this job being publicly advertised. Surely Newcrest is aware that there are people like me and others who spend our days scouring the net for vital pieces of information to square the circle

If you're holding a substantial line of stock (1m+) an intra-day1% rise in absolute 'cash' (paper profit) terms is HUGE relative to what an average paid employee gets paid in a day.

mad

It's there not their, ffs.

Jeez

I don't believe there is any legal or market reason why Newcrest cannot go direct to mining Havieron. I don't believe that they need a JORC to initiate mining.

The JORC is surely a legal and market document designed and constructed to confirm and corroborate reserves for balance sheet capitalisation and to secure financing from external financiers

As long as they have the necessary permits and licences then I don't see why they can't proceed asap

if Biswas will formally announce that Havieron will be mined at the next set of results? Yes, we have more exploration results but maybe more news on plans (fleshed out) for Havieron?

12 Feb 2020

Daniel Morgan, UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - Director and Analyst [15] :

'Sandeep, one of your themes in your presentation and, I guess, for the last few months, has been exploration focus at Red Chris and also Havieron. I think, in the past, you've talked about what you want to get to a position of is, have you seen enough in order to put down an exploration decline and get down there and really see a drill laterally? Just wondering how closer we are, if at all, to that decision on either asset? '

Sandeep Biswas, Newcrest Mining Limited - MD, CEO & Director [16] :

'Well, we obviously got to do a lot more drilling. I mean the last thing you want to do is put a decline in the wrong place. So there's a certain amount of drilling that has to be done to make sure you position it right, but all the necessary approvals processes, the gathering of environmental baseline data, all the things that you would need before applying for permits in both locations, all that work has begun. So we're anticipating that as soon as we get enough drill results to work out where to position these declines and we can get approval of them from the 2 regulators, we'd be in position to get going. And look, we'll just have to see what the future drill results indicate. But if you look at the ones we've got so far, we're feeling pretty confident'.

-

He won't reply but he'll certainly now realise that Newcrest will go to mining at Havieron.

'It is a Mid-Counties Coop special called 'Diamond Day discount available in certain stores. You need to be a Mid-Counties Coop member, NOT a group member (costs £1) show them your card and be over 60 of course. Hey presto, your 10% comes off the bill every Tuesday'.

That's one of the strangest contributions I have ever read on stock forum! Hilarious. I already feel old before I'm not old. Chatting about OAP discount cards is depressing me!!

Just sent an email to Sprott - the Newcrest job advert from this morning