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Joe Carroll
1 July 2022 at 20:59 BST
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Global oil prices could reach a “stratospheric” $380 a barrel if US and European penalties prompt Russia to inflict retaliatory crude-output cuts, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts warned.

The Group of Seven nations are hammering out a complicated mechanism to cap the price fetched by Russian oil in a bid to tighten the screws on Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine. But given Moscow’s robust fiscal position, the nation can afford to slash daily crude production by 5 million barrels without excessively damaging the economy, JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients.

For much of the rest of the world, however, the results could be disastrous. A 3 million-barrel cut to daily supplies would push benchmark London crude prices to $190, while the worst-case scenario of 5 million could mean “stratospheric” $380 crude, the analysts wrote.

“The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might choose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports,” the analysts wrote. “It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/jpmorgan-sees-stratospheric-380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-cut

Running Out of Spare Oil Capacity - What's Next? - 06/ 30/ 2022

'We are now beginning to understand what a world looks like as it runs out of spare oil pumping capacity. Even with the huge releases of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil prices have hardly pulled back. Global inventories, now at record lows, continue to draw counter-seasonally and are reaching dangerously low levels. Even with all the dislocations caused by the Ukrainian conflict and COVID problems in China, global oil demand in Q4 will approach global pumping capability according to our modelling. Strong demand, declining production, record low inventories, and now no spare pumping capacity—all these factors will push oil prices higher in the second half of 2022. Even in the face of all these factors, investor interest in energy markets remains incredibly subdued. The advances we have seen to date have basically been short covering and active managers buying on the margin. Once investors and institutions realize the energy market has fundamentally changed and the decade of cheap, abundant energy is over, the amount of capital that rushes into this sector could be huge. The global energy crisis has just started, and it will take many years to fix. For those that make investments today, the rewards could be immense.'

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/running-out-of-spare-oil-capacity

'There is nothing more for me to add to my recent comments on Hurricane, this is just more of the same despite the uncertainty of the impact of the Looney tax which could turn out to accelerate a potential takeover opportunity…'

GMW, 16 June 2022

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/06/oil-price-petrotal-zephyr-rockhopper-longboat-harbour-hurricane-president-and-finally/

C-456's comment chimes with Wood's (yes, I know MGW's not everyone's cup of tea) comment from 16 June that the EPL will accelerate M & A in the North Sea.........

C-456

Brilliant post..thanks

people are waiting for more news

18p looks a pretty solid base but then in a market like this, god knows

huge free cash-flow and zero debt...most companies would sell their granny for that commercisl profile

I bet the privileged, jobs for life, FSP strikers will be expecting Tesco, Sainsbury, Waitrosei, Aldi etc etc to be open when they're on strike.

What price does Bernstein put on HUR stock when the balance sheet is pure and clean and cash is pouring into the HUR coffers at a prodigous rate? With an average price of 6.7p he's hardly turning a profit at the current share price.....

Crystal haven't come all this way to offload their stake at a crap price. I don't know Bernstein but I suspect he's no muppet

I have 500k HUR. If I can come away with £50k I'll be happy cos I've lost a few quid since 2014.

This is a fascinating insight from el19 (LSE poster) and an AGM attendee who appears to know the company very well - It may indicate why Maris and the bondies were so keen to exploit the law to deprive shareholders of their company - they evidently saw huge upside in HUR's local assets - and for a minor capital outlay as well - the return on capital invested is exceptional -

HUR sandstone

28 Apr 2022 13:11

'Had a real interesting chat the other day, about HUR and its assets/potential. Apparently, there's some uncertainty in the oil industry re estimating GRV (Gross Rock Volume) and its uncertainty, but nonetheless that's what ERC Equipoise used this time last year to estimate our potential oil - and they didn't add any of the estimated sandstone oil in place, to our reserve figure. Not surprising really, as that wouldn't have helped the High Court scam attempt, which thankfully failed of course. Nonetheless, the report estimated that there's between 5 and 6 times more oil in the jurassic/cretaceous sandstone in the Lancaster field, than there is in the basement rock - and as I said, none of it was added to the HUR reserves for Well P6. So why oh why, don't the BoD, utilising our £100M+ of free cash, plan to drill and extract all the oil from this sandstone - if they did, our monthly income would nigh-on triple. It's a total no-brainer in my opinion and that of a few oil experts.'

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/423408/cornerstone-ceo-seeing-a-lot-more-interest-in-firm-following-windfall-tax/

The Crystal Ambers of this world will know more than the small shareholder which may explain why they now back Maris....

RNS

'untrustworthy'', obviously

Many thanks to Senseman and indeed every other poster for their efforts at today's AGM...I hope Maris and his co-conspirators are now cognisant of the tense feelings their actions have caused. Maris's behaviour expressed in public action and written expressions in public documents (RNS) have exposed him as an trustworthy character..he should publicly apologise and then buy a cack load of stock to shore up confidence or failing that, resign

the contents of the presentation are of far more importance

HUR is incredibly undervalued

daltry

I couldn't care less when or why you sell...that's not my concern. I was merely stating my opinion. If you don't like that then ffs, filter me rather than getting all uppity

Now is the time NOT to sell.

The company will be debt free (read that again, DEBT FREE) in 4 WEEKS time with a FCF (free cash flow) profile that any company capitalised at below £200m would give their back teeth for.

The balance sheet is now, putting to one side forecast costs for regulatory requirements, free of infection and external demand. The future is now in the hands of the management not in the hands of the bond holders or a High Court Judge

With Maris on a Crystal Amber tight leash and new appointments galore the future is brighter for HUR that it has been for years

Add in a supportive oil and gas market and you have all the right conditions for HUR to prosper if it makes the correct capital investment decisions with its capital..

Yes, we need forward clarity but that I believe will come

Debt was always the killer here and is always the killer for all companies when their liquidity is streteched to breaking point...Hurricane is passed the worst and entering into a new era

Maris tried to take the company from the shareholders on behalf of bondholders. Why? Because they saw real value embedded within Hurricane. And then when Zaccaroli exposed their Covid law scam Maris tried to scaremonger in subsequent HUR RNS about how P6 was almost exhausted and could expire within weeks. Now, he's changed his stance again and HUR's got a great future with P6 oil pouring huge amounts of unencumbered free cash into HUR's bank account....the guy's a grifter