Member Info for schlemiel

Well, a fella on ADV says L2 is looking stonking. This morning's fall could have been searching for stop losses, the price rebounding with gusto now...

market now yearning for material news

You wouldn't get a price

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/360095942_Prospectivity_of_the_Beetaloo_Petroleum_Supersystem_and_stacked_petroleum_systems_in_the_greater_McArthur_Basin

holding 18p though so let's hope that proves a solid base from which the price may progress

Maris and co will surely now have garnered the strength of feeling when one considers the volume of emails they have rec'd in the last few days...thanks to Senseman

With reference to Hurricane - 'Coming up next are acquisitions.'

https://oilman.substack.com/p/sunday-blog-26-june-2022

pushing ahead in Beetaloo despite intense opposition from the Bovine fraternity whose flatulent emissions represent a far greater threat to th'environment that any amount of emissions from a tightly and closely regulated fracking industry

This is a superb post from a highly knowledgeable poster who now sees HUR as an investment once more rather than a pure spec play and points a possible way forward for Lancaster -

'Additional development drilling on Lancaster doesn't even have to access additional reserves. Simply accelerating the already identified reserves has a huge positive impact for a couple (or more) reasons.

Not least.. by accelerating extraction, the reserves can be evacuated sooner, and thus reduce the not inconsiderable cost of keeping the AM on station. The most economic way to produce from a field is as fast as possible (within limits) and then shut in... There is little benefit in "stretching out" production over many years .... unless of course you're drawing a salary from it...!!

Secondly, a second producer would enable some production to continue to the AM even if the W6 ESP(s) fail. As it is, a failure here would render the AM useless for the period that new ESP could be installed.. and that could be months subject to rig availability/weather.

If sidetracking W7, one of the first procedures would be to pull their ESP's... they could then be refurbished and be ready for immediate use if required in W6. We know that at least one of the W7 ESPs is fully operational since it was used during the recent 2-day test; (at 96% water cut, there is no way the well would have flowed naturally..)

Development of Lancaster further from the existing well locations would almost certainly access ADDITIONAL reserves, but it would entail significantly higher costs, with new flowlines, umbilical, well-head, and top-hole drilling, all of which would be avoided by sidetracking, not to mention the additional risk in venturing into geologically less know region.

HUR has been given a new lease of life with the higher oil price... we should not squander this life-line, as we are STILL on life-support, IMHO..

btw, thinking about the recent W7z well test: this clearly demonstrated that the wells ARE able to PUMP at very high water-cuts... This should allow full extraction of economic reserves, ie. until the opex exceeds revenue... which could allow operation for a couple more years than currently suggested by the company'

We all know Maris and Kerogen were working with one another that would allow Kerogen to take the company under its control, that much is obvious to even the most halfwitted soul but then Crystal Amber know this too but have accepted it and moved on. Having Maris on a tight leash and removing Kerogen as a threat has been achieved. Both of these threats have either been neutered or removed with Kerogen's cancerous influence hopefully purged by end of month though they may indirectly have a minority shareholding though that doesn't confer leverage so that 's fine

In terms of questions for the AGM. I appreciate Senseman's efforts but let's keep it concise and simply pose a couple of questions that we know management will answer rather than including questions we know they won't

Questions should be -

1. Forecasted cash by end of year?
2. Is there now a plan in place that points the way forward for Hurricane ie Lancaster development or other assets?
3. Does management seek a buyout of the company to monetise tax losses?

Let's see what the CPR says. Hopefully it's an upgrade across all classifications (P10 to P90) and that Anchois achieves 1TCF

Does the company intend to develop Lancaster beyond P6 and if so what are the risks and costs involved?

Is the company seeking a bidder for itself or does it intend to become a bidder itself for other companies or other producing assets?

That whopping cash pile must now be used wisely and productively for purely value accretive purposes and that means no risky exploration projects

NST - exactly..thieving feckers

Listening to Maris and his upbeat forecast for P6 then total free cash in the next 18 months should be around say conseratively around £20m then you're looking at over £360m pure free cash after costs

'we forecast this to be at least 18 months from 4 June 2022. '

Antony Maris, Chief Executive Officer of Hurricane, commented: “It was key we found a mutually acceptable deal that will enable the company to continue production beyond repayment of the bond. Based on the current oil price and field performance predictions we forecast this to be at least 18 months from 4 June 2022. '

And I believe Hur and BP have negotiated an uprfront cash facility that will allow HUR to take cash before -

'In addition to the charter extension, the company has negotiated with BP Oil International, the purchaser of its crude oil, a facility that will allow for cash to be advanced ahead of a lifting. This provides the ability to create more frequent cash receipts and assist with the company’s working capital. The facility incurs a financing fee that is only payable if the company uses it.'

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/hurricane-and-bluewater-agree-on-charter-extension-for-aoka-mizu-fpso/

The idea that P6 is about to run dry is a pure lie..it's got another 2 years in it and I bet more

-

I held a million from around 5p and sold in panic when Maris made his now infamous comment about P6..that cost me £50k and more..I won't make that mistake again

Emotional language is designed to trigger an emotional response and that reveals these activists true intent....evidence, reason and logic out of the window while scaremongering, demonisation and criminalisation is classic Stalinist, fascist politics that LTG and their ilk emrbace with gusto

'we anticipate positive asset cashflow into early 2024; and an additional successful producer would extend that to mid-2025." Canaccord, 10 June

I reckon they'll develop Lancaster with FCF. The free cash-flow from a developed Lancaster would run into hundreds of millions over a multi-year period and all thanks to P6

This company's a cash-machine..no wonder Kerogen tried to nick it

Market cap = £145m

Monthly free cash flow = £30m pcm

End of July cash after bond retirement = £70m roughly with oil at $110

£150nm for 4 months to end Dec

70m plus 150m
end of year cash balance = £220m

cash balance will cover the entire market cap by 1.5x....

you can play with the figures but by end of year the entire markep cap will be covered by cash and much mor..that war chest gives HUR real buying power to develop Lancaster further and seek out other assets

kr2

Falling back to the placing price was almost nailed on. It's what happens after most placings

'appointees there would be no reputational upside'. Excellent insight which is why I love these sites that provide a left field interpretation of events

RB

Yes, Robin Allan (now with HUR) is CEO of Brindex.....

'their'

Well, I'm not so sure how they would have managed to sell 50% of their holding into the market...maybe they'd offloaded a few and were also diluted in the placing. Either way, they're holding is now 1.5%..

thanks