Member Info for Scampthedog

As a postie and CWU member I can well understand if some people might care to view me as a defeatist...not so.

I was prepared to strike when I backed the union, twice, in the two ballots...and will NOT cross a picket line; but that in itself is not going to change the reality of the situation.

The company will try to take the path of least resistance of course; as any fundamental force endeavours to so do. But in the end, when all else has failed, will just start taking more draconian measures.

No one should be surprised if, at some point, sometime in the future, they are given a straight choice: sign your new contract or accept redundancy. There are just too many agencies with more than enough agency staff for R.M to worry about an available workforce...and all of it totally flexible.

Doesn't take someone with the brains of Llyod George (Terry Pullinger) to see where this is all going to end.

There is no doubt in my mind the company, at the very last resort, is preparing to use the P&O example of "Fire and Rehire" to get what they really do so desperately need to have to compete in this the modern era of delivery: a flexible workforce.

And ultimately...that is the main crux of what this dispute is really all about.

They WILL split the company. They WILL re-structure the terms and conditions. There WILL be redundancies.

From the Boards perspective the most important requirement going forward is a flexible workforce. That is why agency workers are best suited to their new requirements...actually they have been best suited for the company's requiremets regarding labor for several years now...if not longer in fact.

The CWU has put its head right into the noose. They have gone about all this the wrong way. Instead of having an overtime ban, and then following it up with an 'all out' for one working week...they have gone for this slow bleed that is nothing but detrimental and disadvantageous to both sides...but much more so the posties it has to be said. All this is going to acheive is to force the company's hand even quicker than it might have otherwise done so (regarding redundancies and changing the company structure) and bring about the very changes that the CWU are dead set against.

Its obvious to my way of thinking why they did not consider an overtime ban. All the ones screwing the overtime (both SA and Pressure) and mostly being made up of the longer serving employees, are under the impression they will continue to be allowed to make their losses up by doing just that -- more overtime. But the longer this goes on...the less chance that this might be allowed to happen.

The CWU is taking a terrible risk now with employee's financial security and future employment. I still understand why the workforce is angry with the pay offer...under the circumstances it was nothing short of appalling. I can understand why people voted to strike; as I myself voted: you need to negotiate from a position of strength...not weakness.

But the CWU has not taken on board, nor will countenance in the very slightest of ways, the new reality.

And whether the CWU likes it or not...that 'new reality' is here to stay.

My advice to the union Postal Executive is this: accept that change is inevitable, embrace that change -- and begin negotiating! Otherwise you are going to have a bl..dy disaster on your hands.

"Yes, an employer can continue to retain agency staff in the same or similar roles to permanent employees who are being made redundant."

Makes for ominous reading does it not?

From the Google:-
"When can you rehire after redundancy? The simple answer is whenever you wish. There is no set period where an employer cannot recruit after making an employee redundant. However, if you recruit for exactly the same role that you recently said was redundant, you take a risk.19 Jan 2022"

Sacking someone for taking industrial action, as you point out, is a hazardous undertaking for the employer...but not so with redundancies.

I posted a couple of days back that it won't be long now before letters start landing on employee's hall floors. They will not make happy reading.

This is going to get very dirty and nasty very quickly now.

the very idea. Lol.

"redundancies".

Just in case the Word-Police get me.

...but we need to look at the bigger picture.

Putting aside the "who will/will not win this dispute" conjecture and under what new terms...let us consider a few pertinent but much overlooked points.

1. Its not Simon Thompson, by his own contrivances and decisions, who is pulling the strings and calling the shots here...it is the Board...and, more importantly...Keith Williams. Williams is the real power behind the throne. Thompson is just the front man.

2. There has still, as of yet, been no RNS announcing Kretinsky has bought more stock. Why?

3. The direction the present Board wants to take the company along (in every aspect) is not something that has been cobbled together over the last several months or so; nor the way the company directors and CEO are reacting at every new turn of events. The way the Board is reacting to every new scenario is something that has been a long time in the making/planning. Every new announcement, to every new move the CWU make, by R.M, are not knee-jerk reactions...they are carefully calculated responses that were thought out some considerable while back.

4. There has been absolutely no interest shown by this Government in trying to help resolve the issuse...or act as some kind of mediator...or even show the slightest bit of concern should it look like the service was going to fail. Why?

Its my best guess that the Secretary of State has already given Kretinsky the nod...with one caveat: the two sides must be given a certain period of time to try and resolve their differences. Whatever that period is...I would not be able to say. But one thing is certain...if he allowed Kretinsky to mop up these shares at these prices...he (the Industry Secretary) would be on a hiding to nothing: he would be accused of allowing blatant profiteering from every possible quarter. Politically speaking this would be absolute dynamite for the opposition.

As for Thompson acting the way he is? Quite simple, he is just doing exactly what has been previously discussed and thought out by the Board 12 - 18 months ago...or considerably longer back than this even. In fact, this is more than likely a plan of action for dealing with the posties and restructuring RMG that goes back to the Rico Back days.

And as for the Government? They couldn't care less. Privately, I should imagine the Government takes the view that this has been long overdue and is something that has been coming for an even longer time...and they are well aware of Kretinsky of course.

Don't expect any sudden change of direction by the Board...its not going to happen...not this time it isn't.

The CWU was fitted up for this right from the very start...this time they have rushed right into a great big bear trap.

Make no mistake about it...those threatened redundancys are no idle threat. This time they really mean it.

Whether the CWU likes it or not...its time to start making concessions. Because at this table...they are playing against a stacked dec

More chance of seeing a pig in a mosque.

it doesn't work that way wolves old chap.

There no such thing as doing the "right thing" in politics.

and if my great grandmother had a pair of b0ll0cks...

And why, by the way, would we need a General Election if dear old Liz was to get it right up the fundamentals pray tell?

North Korea and Iran of course. Silly me.

Unless the Tories self-destruct and aid a vote of "No Confidence" ...then the next General Election is a long, long way away.

The next General Election has to be called no later than January 2025 I believe.

In politics, that is so far off its not even a valid argument to suggest today's polls will have even the slightest bearing on what might happen in a General Election sometime towards the end of 2024. Its just completely and utterly laughable to suggest it.

As for Labour's historic problem with nuclear weapons? Their past election campaigns speak for themselves.

As soon as they start gearing up for the next assault on number 10, all the cranks and ultra-lefties will be screeching and howling their demands for disarmament (and renationalization by the look of it...or they should according to Brother Dave) down from every available balcony, and that the Labour leadership include it in their manifesto.

This sums it all up very nicely...

"Labour's support for keeping the UK's nuclear weapons is non-negotiable," the shadow defence secretary has said.

But in a speech, John Healey also promised to "lead efforts to secure multilateral disarmament if the party wins power."

Guess you can take a donkey all around the whole world...but when it gets back...its still the same donkey.

Labour? An unelectable bunch of incompetents...and that in itself is being overly generous at best.

P.s Has anyone yet asked Putin or Xi if they would give their consensus to junk-piling their nuclear warheads?

Ha, ha, haaaaaaa -- ohhhhhh Jesus wept!!!!

I was under the impression that the Secretary of Industry was not obliged to make a public announcement regarding Kretinsky's request to increase his holding over the 25% mark?

If that is indeed the case, then we would not know until an RNS comes announcing Kretinsky has bought again.

I stand to be corrected of course.

...and that is before they have announced their manifesto; nuclear disarnament? huge tax hikes? Where is the populist vote among all that lot?

And renationalization? Doubt it very much. What about the enormous cost? And where would the money come from? Increase our national debt perhaps? And who the Hell is going to be stupid enough to finance that lot?

UK PLC at this moment in time has enough problems (and facing a recession of sorts next year also) ...right now we couldn't raise a smile in the markets...never mind billions of pounds.

Mind you...we could probably get roars of laughter and people keeling over if we went to the markets looking for some sap to underpin any intended renationalization aspirations.

And you can bet your bottom dollar Keir Starmer isn't going to promote the idea of renationalization either.

And to finish: Labour to win the next general election? Nope!!!

"A week is a long time in politics". But January 2025?! The world might not even be here by then...never mind Labour winning a general election. Nothing but a pipe dream. And Kretinsky knows it.

from Deutsche. Recommendation: Sell. New target price: £1.20.

Oh I most fervently hope so.

More for me...and more for our good mate Daniel.

Cometh the hour...cometh the Ice-Man.

I think your right about Pullinger having a certain amount of reservation about how these strikes were being orchestrated...he probably would have preferred the all-out 'hammer approach': hit em hard - and hit em quick!!

A week or two ago, on this forum, I speculated there may well be a split forming within the CWU Postal Executive.

I also mentioned at the time that it was peculiar how Ward had made that now infamous meeting seem like a big thing and how he had 'accepted' Pullingers explaination.

Explaination of what?

Bumping into a couple of Vesa executives at a shareholders event (I presume) and having an impromptu chat? Wheres the harm or ill-intent in any of that?

When I heard Ward talking, I got the feeling it was actually nothing to do with any of that. To me, Ward seemed quietly and inwardly furious...but not about the supposed unplanned meeting.

The whole thing and the sort of forced sincerity that Ward was trying to display made a distinct impression on me.

It just didn't ring true. None of it.

Well said.

And regarding Tel Boy...

was all a bit sudden wasn't it?

And no mention of him lately at all from Ward and co. Why?

Not even a "get well soon, mate".

Strange. Very strange indeed.

Cannot argue against your reasoning, teslo. But as you yourself say...highly unlikely.

And of course we have that one vital thing...that one vital thing that contains a lot of explosive potential -- the Ice-Man!!

His time is coming...and the clock is ticking away on these so called negotiations... clicking quietly away. And it won't be allowed to click away undisturbed much longer that is for certain.

Something has to break...and very soon. Very soon. And then all Hell will be loosed!!!

There is going to be a lot of slack-jawed, open-mouthed, eyes-opened-wide expressions all throughout this pantomime in the very near future. And you can quote me on that.

Royal Mail could get any amount of credit they wanted by offering GLS as security. They could even sell a minority holding in GLS and quite easily raise a billion pounds.

And Kretinsky with over 200,000,000 shares in Royal Mail is hardly going to let that happen I would think.

Kretinsky is going to buy this company. Its a done deal.

And when it is politically expedient for him to do so...he will be allowed to do it.

Administration? No. Never.

Same here. Did very well out of R.M on two occasions over the last five years or so.

But never got the top price. Sold all the way up though.