Member Info for Scampthedog

Lol. NOT A CHANCE IN HELL.

And thats my last word on that one also.

Cannot understand why people gets so uptight when the markets crash. Every stock I have, including half a dozen big yankee mega-caps, have all taken a massive hit in the last 9 months.

So what? Buy the b.st.rds!!! Nibble away, my old shoe...nibble away.

Nobody buys at the bottom...and nobody sells all at the top.

In two short years from now these markets will not even be a distant memory...and that includes Royal Mail.

£1.97 my fat @rse!! £1.97 or £1.37...just buy it. Simple as that really.

or judging by the current rise in the s.p, so it would appear.

Suits me just fine either way.

My current average is £2.45 on a 'shed-full' of shares (I might not have as many as some of you on here maybe...but enough to give me another big stonking return sometime in the not so distant future)...and at these prices, I am going to keep nibbling away. £1.90, £2.50...or £1.38 even...it makes no difference to me.

Kretinsky or no Kretinsky, even with a string of strikes, deserting customers, rampant inflation and soaring costs...this company is still worth a lot more than £3.00 a share. A lot, lot more.

And if Kretinsky does get the nod and starts piling in again (whether that be in 3 weeks time or next March even)...he won't be getting this company for the IPO price...not a snowballs chance in Hell he won't.

From natural attrition?

Some perhaps. But the very most statutory redundancy your going to get is 30 weeks x basic pay...and thats if you have 20 years in over the age of 41.

Thats a mere fraction of the former generous V.R payment that R.M used to pay.

And why would R.M offer someone who is in their sixities (who qualifies for the 30 weeks redundancy), with only a year or two to go before they get their state pension, the opportunity of taking V.R, when that person may well intend to retire in a year or two anyway? And why would those same people who are coming up to pensionable age want to accept a, now much diminished, redundancey package, when if they carrying on working for a couple of years they will keep receiving the very generous pension contributions that R.M pay weekly into their own personal pension pots? This all seems to be a complete contradiction in terms.

None of this makes much sense to be quite frank.

So where do the other thousands of job losses come from?

Processing? Network? Delivery?

And is it, as it should be of course, last in first out?

Because if it not...then here is another huge flashpoint on the impending horizon.

So supposing any new starters are given the push, it may well be the case that many unfortunate longer serving employees who are given the choice to replace them might therefore be compelled to undertake a journey of some distance every working day just to get to work. They will be given a travelling allowance...but it doesn't amount to much...and don't I know it.

Yes...as usual...all a bit of a dogs dinner. Nothing new there then.

I am not going to argue against anyone who does not accept what I suggest might or might not be the case with this supposed lose. Everyone, quite rightly, is entitled to an opinion...and I can live with that.

But when talking about the daily fluctuations sideways to sideways and back and forth concerning incoming revenue and daily outgoings of R.M balance sheets on even a weekly basis...there will be just that -- a greater or lesser amount of LONGITUDE.

In other words: much wiggle room. Lol.

Not up and down...but sideways to sideways and back and forth...so to say.

Or to put it more plainly -- they can claim whatever they want before they present their books for proper scrutiny.

That £1000,000 lose is just too perfect...almost if freshly tipped out of a mould.

Cannot argue with any of your comments here, Phunt73.

Fair play to you...it all seems more than reasonable. I too think most posties would be happy with 5%.

Just for fun. But any book figures can be made to look any way a person wants within a certain amount of longitude.

And when you are talking about £12,500,000,000...thats an awful lot of longitude.

What would you consider a fair deal concerning pay and terms and conditions?

I accept of course you cannot go into a long dialogue...but just sum it up in a couple of sentences.

Firstly...the so called £1000,000 lose a day.

I have to side with the union on this one. Why not 1.25 million a day? Or £825,000 a day? Or any other figure you can pluck out of the air.

This is just nonsensical figure-conjuring as far as I am concerned. As several other posters have commented, if R.M and the CWU do come to an agreement that satisfies not just everyone concerned (including all the share holders plus the city analysts) ...then R.M are just as likely to turn around and say instead that they are now saving one million pounds a day.

That £1000,000 is purely a word play.

What is more concerning though is the following...and please understand these are not "concrete" figures (far from it) but the idea here is to try and demonstrate the dire straits (financially) the company is presently in...and, hopefully, generate some lively but sensible debate.

If we take the £12.5 billion revenue the company generated last financial year, and then deduct the cost of wages plus a guesstimated sick pay deduction...the sums involved are simply amazing.

I believe that the posties wages alone are touted as being in the realm of about £3 billion. Add to this the cost of the agency, which must be at least one third to one half of the posties yearly wage bill ...and the figure would then be 4-4.5 billion!! Add times of pressure (Easter and Christmas with the big increases in both agency and overtime)...and, my goodness -- a colossal increase!! Easily £5 billion plus in my opinion.

Now lets look at the sickness payouts. Again, a few guesstimates...and lets keep it low.

For arguments sake let us presume that out of 115,000 posties (not sure of the actual number...but this is just for fun) each postie has an average of 5 days a year (one working week) on the sick. We will take an average working basic weekly wage (bearing in mind the varying rate paid for different shift patterns and any legacy payments) of £500.00 and times it by 115,000...

115,000 x 500 = £57,500,000!!! Mind-boggling amount...and that's based solely on, and nothing more, than a complete shot in the dark. In short...it could easily be several multiples of that figure.

So...what do we have so far? well, out of that £12.5 billion...nearly half of it gone already. Considering that most companies work on no more than 15% for staff wages...then R.M's must be three times that. Not sustainable! And that is without a pay rise of any amount.

Add to all of this the cost of maintaining a huge fleet, the cost of spiralling fuel bills (R.M must spend millions of pounds a day on diesel)...and there is not much left is there? Oh...and don't forget corporation tax on any monies now left over. And instead of corporation tax being cut...it will now more than likely be increased sometime soon by the new incoming Chancellor.

And if anyone here is not sure about what Ward and co consider is an acceptable no-strings attached pay increase...its about inflation -- approximately

The best post concerning the CWU for a long, long time. Superb!!

I did watch the update yesterday...and yes I was appalled at Dave Ward. Not for what he said (he and the union leadership are quite entitled to suggest new ideas for business opportunities to the company) ...it was rather which in how he said it.

You cannot (as a union or an employee of any company) preach to a board of directors and berate them for simpletons and fools.

Most (in any industry), it not all, have many years of Board experience at executive level, a proven pedigree when sat at the big table, and degree's in, among other things, advanced business studies... further endorsed with far more business savvy coupled with a greater insight and indepth picture of the wider world and macroeconomic reality in which they operate than your average union leader.

Who the f..k does Ward think he is? The F..kin Chancellor?!

The truth of the matter is this: Ward is a Marxist and political agitator who desperately wants a massive general strike and the Tories out of number 10.

He even attempted to kidnap the Labour party conference when pursuing his political agenda and then shackle the Labour party leadership to a picket line!

Instead of exhorting millions of people to contribute to destroying whats left of our battered economy he should be expending every last ounce of effort to find the middle ground...but thats not Ward's style of course...nor, I'am afraid, is it that of your average 20 year + postie.

The old guard wants nothing more than total war and, in their minds, total victory over the company.

They don't see the Royal Mail (as Ward claims) as a great and ancient British institution that is there solely to serve the community...but still rather a shadowy government department with bottomless pockets to which they, and they alone, are entitled to forever dip into.

This old guard served by a militant union postal executive are completely blind to the truth of the whole situation...and not just what is happening in this country...but what is happening everywhere in any other country.

To them, GLS is'nt even 'really part of' Royal Mail as they see it. They see it as abhorrent...something to be despised, not somethng they want to ever see here. And I most heartily agree! Why should anyone welcome the prospect of working under the GLS model?

But Ward has to accept that if he and his other deluded mates don't start negotiating and conceding on some contentious, unpalatable points...then that is exactly what they are going to get. Or to be more precise -- 'WE' are going to get!

This union is not just for the benefit of all those with 20+ years...it is for the benefit and protection of all.

Unfortunately, however, that's not the way this bigoted and biased union sees it.

I have made many negative comments on here regarding the CWU over the last 12 months or so...a 2% pay increase was without doubt a derisory offer...and I can understand entirely why people should be enraged about it...but by my comments, regarding the union leadership, people can quite easily understand that I have never been particularly impressed with the CWU Postal Executive.

Never more so than now.

Although I can fully appreciate the depth of feeling and level of support for this strike (I voted for it myself...albeit with some trepidation)) what I cannot forgive the CWU leadership for...is the way in which they are prosecuting this strike action.

It was the CWU, right from the very start, who refused to negotiate both pay and terms and conditions concurrently...indeed they organised two seperate ballots. Why?

And what do we have now?

Ward pleading for Thompson and Williams to enter into the room so they can discuss all aspects of the many grievances at the same meeting!

What a complete waste of valuable time regarding the last several months -- unforgivable!!

So, finally, we are brought to this.

Unless the CWU leadership wakes up and smells the coffee...then this union will be irreparably split.

It always has been the case that the union reps on the shop floor only really care about the 20 year plus men...and this abysmal shambles proves it.

Any compulsory redundancies won't include them...it will be the many unfortunate people with two years or less who will be axed first. And if the cull carries on towards the 10,000 figure I will get it right in the neck also.

If these proposed strike days only get halfway through...you will see a serious split in this union's membership.

Those people with only a few years in will be the first to cross the line...and soon after...many more will follow.

It is only a matter of days now before the first letters start dropping through our letter boxes...they will be from Simon Thompson...and they won't make happy reading.

Not long after that, more letters warning people that their job, THEIR OWN JOB, is on the line...and unless they return to work THEIR contract will be terminated.

And who should we blame for this debacle?

Quite simply -- the union leadership!

Their intransigence. Their belligerence. Their refusal to accept the real world. Their determination to pander to and protect the selfish indulgence of the senior membership with their legacy payments and ridiculous amounts of unnecessary and greedy overtime. Their absolute insistence that they would do nothing to help stop the abuse of the overly generous sick pay...and so on and so on and so on.

This dispute might well cost me my job...but at least I will have the satisfaction of knowing...at long, long last...that this wretched union led by a dyed-in-the-wool Marxist...has finally been nailed into its coffin.

No wonder Pullinger has fell out with them all...he probably foresaw all this f

I sold half my former holding at an average of £5.45 and made £19,000.00 profit.

And ?

And if Kretinsky's highest price come the other side of March is £2.75 (teslo) why not average down?

Strange comments to make regarding present cicumstances.

And barring the secretary of State -- Kretinsky WILL be buying this company.

The Ice-Man lies waiting.

I think Kretinsky's highest price paid in a previous 12 month period after March 2023 is about £2.40.

Might be wrong...someone here will correct me if I am.

Buying at these prices cannot be a bad thing in most peoples opinion...or so I would think.

Price can fall lower of course. Thats why you should just peck away at it...and buy small amounts again if it does fall considerably lower.

Just dipped my beak at 1.77.

And why not -- f..k it!

Buying all the way down.

My average is now approx what Kretinsky's lowest offer price would have to be come the other side of March 2023.

Not that I think, even at this present low-ebb, that he will be able to acquire the company for such a derisory value.

But at an offer 3.30 a share? Every possibility I would think...despite the over-inflated values that I see getting slung around concerning GLS.

The Ice-Man lies waiting.

Soon for the icing, methinks.

The Ice-Man lies waiting.

Don't think the company could influence whether the Secretary of Industry might or might not consider issusing a statement.

But I do basically agree with the sentiment of what you are expressing.

It would, indeed, be bad timing right now. Perhaps the Secretary has given Kretinsky his decision...but added a caveat: you can buy...but not until all possible chance of negotiation has been exhausted. Who knows?

But my best guess would be just that.

Although Kretinsky wishing to increase his holding over 25% required an RNS...

the Secretary of State's decision as to whether to allow it or not DOES NOT require a public announcement to the markets.

I find that all rather contradictory myself.

Using the same logic, one would assume that if the investigation period was increased by another 45 days...then another RNS would have been released.

Sooooo....?

Between the brawling and obscenities...can any of you pugilists tell me what the state of play is concerning Kretinsky?

Since the RNS announcing the investigation of VESA's holding in R.M, on the 25th of August, things have gone very quiet.

Looking around on the government website, I see that you have to wait a maximun of 30 working days from making the request (to increase your holding) to receiving the Secretary of States decision.

The Secretary of State can delay the decision by ordering a further, more-in-depth review for up to an extra 45 days.

As I was under the impression that it was Kretinsky himself who, in July, informed the authorities of his intent to increase his stock I am now wondering whether the Secretary has ordered a more concise investigation.

Anyone any sensible thoughts, insights or suggestions?

I have been writing posts on this board in the same vein as yourself for the last several years.

And that sort of writing has "been the wall" for the posties a lot longer than that.