Member Info for Scampthedog

...Scancell stock. 8.72p a pop. Look me up: DodgeyDealer *0001*.

Cheers!

Not long now before Kretinsky gets the nod to carry on buying...and he WILL get the nod.

The company WILL be split...

and GLS WILL be partly sold off.

Whether Kretinsky is allowed to bid for the company is another matter...I think YES myself.

As a postie I am truly gob-smacked at the present state of affairs.

But lose my job or no...if all the above comes about I will still be laughing all the way to the bank...via the Unemployment Centre that is.

"HUNT, has clarified it for you. These shares are not given they are offered for future redemption at a predetermined date.
Many things will determine their availability at that time. So any discussion is best done after a clear understanding, or some will be aggrieved for little or no reason."

But thats exactly the point, Redceo: your average postie doesn't even know who Daniel Kretinsky is...never mind understand your above explanation. Nor would they care to understand it either.

The problem is, how is it all going to be perceived by the CWU and the average postie?

Answer -- BADLY!!!

As OliGarch has just so reported; and something I predicted in my previous comment...not that I had to be some kind of genius to predict the union's response when they got wind of it.

Oh for Gawd's sake......talk about componding the problem.

The CWU will be all over this!

Talk about insensitive. Like pouring oil onto the fire. I shake my head in utter disbelief.

They openly argue the point that they cannot pay a decent payrise...and then turn around and say: "but don't worry all you shareholders...we are going to give you all value for your money in the very near future. "

And reward themselves of course...and why not? It is for free!

GREEDY, STUPID IDIOTS!!!

Think you might have misinterupted what I am contending.

As Kretinsky already holds 22% of the company, all he has to do is buy another 8% (with the Secretary of State approval) and he then can make the shareholders an offer for the entire group.

If the strike gets even more entrenched and bitter, he can more than likely (if he receives the nod that is) buy those outstanding 8% shares for considerably less than the share price at present.

That would leave the remaining 70%. For arguments sake, let us say he has to pay £4.50 a share for the remaing 70%...another £3 billion?

Once he sells off GLS and the North American enterprise, those other 70% shares are paid for; and thats if he only gets £3 billion for the both of them! If he gets more -- great!! Quids in for him.

And as for the rest of the company (the UK Royal Mail side of the business)? -- he therefore ends up getting that dirt cheap! The entire business for the cost of 30% of the shares with a present average (22%) of about £2.50 a share...or less; and the remaining 8% he needs might be bought for less than the average that he paid for the 22% of those already existing shares he now holds.

He is very well positioned...no doubt about it.

but the reality is a far, far different thing.

Nobody is going to pay even anywhere near £4 billion for any part of a company's business when it can buy the whole company for only half the price.

It was only a few short years ago when I saw GLS valued at a mere £1.5 billion!

No way is any fool going to pay even £3 billion in my opinion. Its just talk regarding these over-inflated figures.

But even at say £2.3 billion...more than enough for our good friend Mr Kretinsky to be extremely interested in obtaining RMG on the cheap that is for sure.

There has been a lot of speculation of late about just how much GLS is worth; I have seen figures of up to £5 billion touted in the media...highly unlikely anyone would pay this much. But most certainly worth several billion...upwards of 2 billion perhaps?

If Kretinsky does acquire Royal Mail...he would certainly (in my opinion) sell off GLS (and the newly acquired business in North America) to recoup a big portion of his outlay after buying out the shareholders of the group. He would then probably split Royal Mail UK into different companies...but still under the RMG banner. For example: R.M Logistics; R.M Transport; R.M Properties; R.M Delivery.

This would then further divide and conquer as far as taming the CWU is concerned; it would make it easier to negotiate with each individual group their own then soon to be diverging pay rises and new terms and conditions.

Kretinsky is a 'value' investor first and foremost...interested in the longer term also of course...but not adverse to making a quick Buck and then getting quickly out.

Most on here are well aware that I very quickly, not long after Kretinsky had made his first several initial purchases, suspected that he was attempting to quietly build a position without attracting too much scrutiny; with his own personal view that if he could get as close as he could to the 30% shareholding limit coupled with the lowest possible average share price paid (which in the main he has)...then he always had that added option of bidding for the company (at a big discount...and even more discounted due to the tens and tens of millions of pounds of dividend payouts he has received) sometime in the future...and at a very muched reduced overall cost.

I see nothing happening of late that would make me reconsider that opinion. Indeed, what has happened recently only further reinforces the possibility of a takeover in my mind.

Allow me to take another contrarian view also: I believe that Kwarteng would be more than happy for Kretinsky to take control of RMG...and I don't believe that he would just allow Kretinsky to then carve up the company and dump Royal Mail UK back on his doorstep either. If Kretinsky WAS to acquire RMG...then I am certain he would be reminded beforehand what was expected of him (not that he would need reminding) as far as the USO and providing a viable service for the UK public and its day to day commerce goes.

Kretinsky cannot lose here...unless Kwarteng forces him to sell a big chunk of his stock; but there again...there are more than likely lots of ways of solving that possibility I would have thought.

might well be accumulating shares with a view towards a possible takeover, people laughed.

I don't see anyone laughing now.

And yes...I was the first one to suggest it.

Not sure exactly how they would prefer to fund more than a 2% pay rise...but selling off a 30% minority stake in GLS might help for starters.

Add this to their exsisting 750 million pounds war chest...and they could pay off at least half of that 1 billion pounds debt, finance a 6% pay rise...and still have hundreds of millions left for future contingency and further investment in modernization.

And regarding the dividend? They could still pay one...but would have to scale back on the share buybacks for the next twelve months or so.

But 2%? If inflation were only running at 6% (and its not -- its over ten!!) I would still consider 2% a slap in the face.

And that on top of the massive share bonus that they have just recently helped themselves to?

W*****s!!!

They don't deserve any respect after pulling that trick.

R.M will win this dispute. But at what price? Well I will tell you. A terrible, terrible one -- for all of us!!!

If this does indeed happen...then we posties have one comfort: a lot of us may very well be out of a job...but 'Simple Simon' and the rest of the board will most certainly follow.

And as a shareholder I am more than happy with that outcome I assure you.

Amazon and booHoo are already diverting mail.

Very interesting, OliGarch....

but I think it more pertinent to suggest that the majority of agency workers are supplied by Angard.

I will be highly surprised indeed if their agency has also decided that they too will refuse to let their workers cross the picket lines.

Plus, there are many other agencies supplying staff to Royal Mail.

Any takers?

Because it should be up at, at the very, very least, 60 pence (or considerably more even) after that 'Barn-Storming' RNS that announced itself this morning.

but we are going to go down fighting to a man thats for sure.

A bit overly dramatic maybe. But 2%? You can shove that right up your **** Simon. And by the way...I consider myself anything but militant.

All rather disappointing in so many respects.

As a shareholder I will make a handsome return on my stock (I made nearly £20,000 profit last time the s.p spiked)...albeit perhaps in a year or two maybe...or perhaps when R.M sells off a minority stake in GLS.

But my feelings and thoughts as an employee?

Not very chuffed about how this whole lamentable affair has been brought about.

Treachery and deceit come foremost to mind.

I hope Kretinsky calls for a Special AGM and demands the whole board be sacked.

Greedy, good for nothing freeloaders!

I understand the need for change...but to impose a 2% payrise with inflation running at 10%? Did you expect the CWU to react to that well, Mr Thompson? Take it on the chin and move on?

I would rather take my chances with Kretinsky than this bunch of back-sliding idiots.

...but what exactly?

What is it that we don't know that they in the 'Know' do.

probably running out of cash (yet again) and are preparing to brush off the begging bowl...yet again also.

Tiresome is it not?

whats going on with the s.p?

eek...eek...

zzzzzzzzzzz...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

twit, twit..................

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

twoo, twoo...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...................

baaaaa...baaaaaaa

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz......... ........ ........

it would simply be a case of 'Mutually Assured Destruction'.

Yes...it is my belief that some posties would be striking themselves out of a job. And yes again...the company could limp along for an indefinite period just using agency and contractors. And yes when it comes to Kretinsky...that in my opinion he would swoop in like an eagle on a hapless lamb.

But that won't change the fact that it would take a lot of time and money to put right what would be pretty well beat up after a long and protracted strike.

Would not be a very pretty sight...the aftermath that is.

I have to agree with you.

Not that I want to...but it is almost if, as you yourself state, that Thompson and co want to provoke a fight.

For some time now I have believed that this is exactly what the board want. I believe more and more that they have prepared themselves for this moment from quite a while back.

I mentioned a week or two ago that I did not think the posties could win this dispute...I still think that way.

Most people here tend to disregard Mr Kretinsky...that is a big mistake in my opinion. Without a doubt (my opinion again) Kretinsky has much influence and sway over this present board...I would actually go a lot further than that...I think the board know exactly what kretinsky intends to do...and under any circumstances also.

Enough said.