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all of which is good to hear DVH..
The issue we have right now is ‘the first domino’
There will be zero momentum with Kefi until Tulu Kapi is signed into history, the project closes and conditional funds are in play - the the domino’s fall..
The definition of success is “the difference between expectation & realisation” - and the fundamental problem here is expectations being continually shot to pieces every 5 minutes by a CEO who simply doesn’t know how to manage them in the cold light of day, and who for some reason (as an accountant) lacks any knowledge of how these deals coagulate and then settle
This was NEVER an “end of ‘22” deal (not in a million years)
Is it beyond the wit of man to set a reasonable expectation, backed with progressive logic, and stick to the bloody thing
Fantasy.. thought I’d been a bit harsh on you in truth.. haha..
Share price heading south today and it’s all about managing expectations… or not
I think we can both agree that the Kefi senior team are totally 5hit at this..
However, the assets are undeniable, and both geographies are in a hurry
TKGM PROJECT / FINANCIAL CLOSE - PREDICTION
Hi all…
Friday afternoon down under, having a quiet wine with an old, well travelled Jack Russell Terrier.. he’s mostly on the water.
Firstly, my apologies to Fantasy, Forrest and the “glass half empty” /“shorting to oblivion” crew in general for not holding back on my contempt for your posts in recent times. I must learn to ‘agree to disagree’
I’m not in the business of crystal ball gazing and I don’t possess loose tea.. so this is just my own meandering thoughts on our elephant in the room, Tulu Kapi close out, timing thereof, as we sit today….
We don’t have a credit backed formal offer of debt funding from the senior lenders. Yet.
We DO have a document which says ‘yes, we’ll do this deal’ with a list of conditions to be met. This has been circulated to all syndicate members, as most of them will have to work industriously and get comfortable with covenants, conditionality and prioritisation of security etc, in order for signatures to dry and funds to flow.
I suspect the above paper IS board ratified, and a serious & genuine document, yet to crystallise into ‘unconditional’ however
My Prediction;
Mid March
I absolutely think this will happen, and absolutely have NO IDEA why we have been given such ludicrous timescales from the Kefi senior team this far - entirely baffling…
We need to arrive at a formal offer (unconditional) and then the myriad of lawyers and advised need to dance around for a few weeks to justify their fees, tick all the boxes and agree on all conditionality (precedent & subsequent) - no quick process.
So that’s my best guess - mid March close for TKGM
I firmly believe this is going to happen - just as much as I firmly believe the board have led us up the garden path here, albeit naively with good/honest intent
Delighted to be proved wrong, and that may happen later today, or Monday……. But my feel for this is mid March full/final close out.
Milestones of achievement along the way will get the market twitching and the share price firing in anticipation.
GLA
Stakeholders need a more forensic (less loose) breakdown of where we are right now with the TKGM funding, the specific steps required to effect financial close and an accurate handle of associated timing.
Appreciating there are sensitivities in play, not for public consumption, there is room for a better and more detailed handling /overview of this…
If it’s another month then “set the scene” and the market will accept that.
The constant over promising and woolly narrative is unhelpful
Thanks Frankseluc..
I have submitted a question to Kefi re clarification of what the senior lenders have actually physically provided
There is a big difference between an Indication of Terms / IOT (board ratified or otherwise) and a Formal Offer…
From where I sit, it’s a month to full financial close (give or take) from receipt of a Formal Offer.
This feels like a subject to document (pre credit approved/backed formal offer) with draft conditions precedent thrown in to get the consortium thinking the right way early….
That being the case, indicating a December ‘22 close out was irresponsible and/or very naive
… and I’m a big fan of Kefi & HAA saying this….
No Fantasy - you have been casting doubt on the whole deal and generally been an inaccurate pain in the backside and a fool.
I have simply said that expectations could have been managed better - big difference and no parity
Forrest
I’m invested, and I’m a realist with some deep experience of these types of deals.
Doesn’t mean I’m selling. It means I get the likely timeframe - that’s it.
I have a lot of respect for Harry.. met him a few times here in AUSTRALIA. He’s very good at what he does.
Could investor expectations have been managed slightly better… probably yes.
That’s it
Bear
As a former financier, the only thing here that doesn’t make sense to me is “in principle” agreement from the senior lenders at this juncture.
I’m slightly confused, because the company/HAA has/have previously indicated that they are working through Conditions Precedent (CP’s)
CP’s form part of a Formal Offer of facilities, which is substantially more advanced than an “in principle”
So - yes, we know this is happening - but (as I’ve said before) I do think that HAA has potentially over promised on timing here (his one failing in my book)
Expectations need to be managed realistically in/around deals.
As a banker, used to providing funds for these deals, my feeling is this remains pre final credit committee approval, and that means we might have another month until the fat lady sings her fat **** off…
I’ve waited 7 years so far… another 4 weeks or so is easy….
Just wished the expectations were managed more realistically and accurately .. it feels amateurish if I’m honest..
We have been repeatedly told that there will be no placing prior to the project close of TK.
Further, Kefi had access to short term borrowing should the need to bridge a delay arise…
As you say, we will find out soon enough - however, nobody has more personal skin in the game here as a stakeholder than HAA, and therefore nobody will be financially hurt more by dilution.
From that I hope we stick to the narrative, but if there is a placing then it will have been orchestrated by the person it negatively affects the most… from which you can deduce that it is a commercial necessity.