RE: Successful in an Azactidine refractory patient5 Dec 2022 21:56
NCYT shot up on a massive Govt order and huge projections of numbers ( which then turned to ashes as vaccines arrived and also Govt then squirmed out of paying ). Talk about zero to hero , then zero again . Traders were all over it , and then totally out of it , and many got burnt .
People were talking of £20-30 being realistic ( and if you looked at the US market , then it did look possible)
But it just never came to pass - they never broke the US market , and it was all over in a flash .
What it did show was that a small company could scale up very quickly , if funded.And they did deliver , it's just that past Covid , their future was very unclear . No way they could do the numbers without a pandemic.
They had a headstart on their competitors , with the PCR tests , but that advantage soon got eroded.
Hence price collapse .
Faron potential valuations will vary from how optimistic you feel .
Redeye have taken their valuation with the data available at the time . Bull case of £10 approx . But this is based just on what they have to go on now . 24 hrs ago , we didn't have the latest Bexmab info , which in itself may just reinforce that £10 number , but also hints at what other combo properties Bex could work in .
Below is some *** packet calculations , so don't take it too seriously - but it explains the principle that the potential of Bex isn't limited to just todays goals . 2023-4 have some massive trials planned ( BEXCOMBO) - which could unlock even more possible combination markets.
That's when you start multiplying that £10 by 2 or 3 , or by how many other cancer groups you can be effective in .
The USP of Bex is it can reignite the immune system , with little or no side effects , and lends itself to be used across the whole spectrum of Immunotherapy ( currently $100billion at least a year and growing 7-8% a year )
If it doubles the efficacy of a current drug , then it should command fair value( ie Keytruda is $14 billion a year sales)
The size of these markets as enormous . And Big Pharma has to keep them going . At the moment , their biggest issue is the waning efficacy of their drugs , and also the huge numbers of non responders ( 87% approx )
So to have an asset like Bex that can revive or transform a current therapy ( eg Azacytidine has 30-60% responder rate , and the Leukemia market is approx $15 billion , with AML being $1-2 billion) - you could value Bex in that market at lets say a conservative $600m , that gives us £8 a share just there alone .
The Mcap of these kinds of companies is what people need to look at , that will then predict the SP .
If we get to market , a Mcap of $1billion should not be unreal at all - given the market we will be in . And if Faron play it clever , they will have options to make multiple deals , should Bex continue to perform .
Some big IF's , but $1-2billion could only be the start . It may well also be the end if we get sold too early . But I'm confident of the m
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