Member Info for Saxondale

I guess valuations can be wildly different depending on what state the company is in . If they already had an income stream and were capable of going it alone , I'd say the valuations would have to be much higher to get Faron to part with their golden goose . With zero funds , you don't have the luxury of that , however Faron have got Bex a long way down the road , and the package is I would say multiples of value of what it was 1 or 2 years ago . To take $1-2b now would be too cheap - given what the platform could generate . But the proof of all that is yet to come . Hence the wild variations in value .

I do think that the old £10 or £20 targets are now so realistic that they are almost conservative estimates now for the whole company .

Watch the Sp on Naz for any smoke signals . Because you can bet your bottom dollar that there will be action there before any official announcement is made . Maybe a big rise late in the day before . No news is water tight = and especially when big money is involved . We arent waiting for a company produced data set ( very non leaky ) . We are waiting for commercial deal - with no doubt JP Morgan associates wanting to make the most of it too .

From JPM website - This event is by invitation only and invitations are not transferable.

So not like your usual conference where you can just wander around looking at Posters etc .

This is where deals are struck / announced .

I'm not holding my breath when it comes to the JPM event - but I do admit that this year is ' different' . If ever Faron were to finalise or announce a deal - this week would be opportunistic for maximum exposure .

See here an article from 2023 -

https://www.jpmorgan.com/industries-we-serve/healthcare/healthcare-conference-highlights

The Conference is also the birthplace of a lot of deals, with companies announcing major transactions in the run-up.

Building off the momentum at the end of 2022, when J.P. Morgan's Global Head of Health Care Investment Banking, Mike Gaito, and his team led the industry’s biggest merger—the $28 billion sale of Horizon Therapeutics to Amgen—more than $3.5 billion worth of deals were announced to coincide with the Conference. Chiesi’s $1.25 billion acquisition of rare disease drugmaker Amryt Pharma and AstraZeneca’s $1.3 billion buyout of CinCor Pharma, which gives it access hypertension and kidney disease treatments, were among the highlights.

These biotech buyouts gave the Conference a jumpstart, suggesting that the uptick in M&A activity that began in the second half of last year could stick around. investment-banking/mergers-and-acquisitions-market-outlook

Many big pharma companies are seeking to replenish revenues as their top-selling drugs reach the end of patent protection, sparking fierce competition for new medicines and a flurry of deals, especially with biotech firms.

Faron must surely be in the crosshairs of multiple companies .

C'mon Juho - lets get 2025 up and running with some fireworks !

A large set up like this ( Kauppalehti is the leading finance media organisation in Finland according to an FT article ) - wouldn't want egg on its face giving such a bold prediction , given that it seems to have singled out Faron as a probable superstar.

They have a huge following by the looks of it - and great coverage - so this could be just what Juho and the team need to keep the SP on the boil while negotiations conclude .

Nearly 600k vol on Nas -

They'll have to raise the UK LSE price soon if this keeps going - I had 1k today , now can't buy anything on my platform .

2.51 euro - which should be about £2.10 over here .

SP performance here is unusual that's for sure , during what is normally a flat week .

No smoke without fire perhaps .

I don't want to get too excited , but the possibility of a ' bidding war ' is very real .

Like BMhltd says , Bex is a whole new platform concept in cancer treatment - not just the MDS profit opportunity .

At some point , one of the BP will have to stick their cards on the table - not only in order to secure the platform for themselves , but to prevent any competitor from running with it .

It's above my pay grade to try and guess how this will be done , as I believe Faron really want to remain in control of the Bex program .

Good luck everyone - Happy new Year and lets hope 2025 finally makes the wait worthwhile !

Yes Merry Christmas to you too West . I won't hold Juho to his Dec comment , but SP holding up does bode well that we aren't far way from news . I can wait till Jan haha .

Its a good signal in my opinion , showing that they are all but ready to announce the big plan for 2025 .

Every piece of news has been super positive in the last few months - we just need the big one now .

Faron isn't normally leaky on news - and this sort of news will be very tightly held until its time to RNS .

I can't answer for Del but with 100m shares in issue - the calcs are quite straightforward should we get a partner offer .

$600m = £480m divided by 100m shares = £4.80 . Although that is not what the company is worth - just the Bex value in MDS application .

A takeover offer would have to value the whole platform - which with a successful P2 would help underscore its value . But its down to the partner to then take the risk going forward - so off the back of one successful P2 in the MDS indication , they wont be offering $4billion in one go . NO doubt any deal would include milestone payments / royalties etc .

But either way - it would involve a large upfront cash sum ( say £200m for rough example ) - then further payments as trials develop successfully . That would double the SP immediately , as the market would view Faron then as a totally different entity .

If an offer were RNS'd to come in at say $1.25b for the whole set up - that would put SP at £10 - while the offer was considered .

That's what we've all been waiting to happen for the last couple of years . A year ago - we wouldn't be looking at that kind of valuation , but this year and in 2025 - the analysts have pretty much confirmed that these figures are realistic .

Https://www.inderes.se/en/articles/drug-development-investment-value-creation-through-mandas-and-licensing-agreements

Article uses the similar valuations for a P2 stage M&A that Faron have showed . Either way - its multiples of todays price .

Every company M&A will be different - and I would say we have a much bigger pipeline potential than the average company product due to the universal application of Bex against Clever-1 - and what it does . As Markuu said - its 'HUMUNGOUS ' .

These discussions must be very complicated , but Faron have plenty of experienced members involved who have done this kind of transaction before .

In June 2023 - we had this - Leopoldo Zambeletti is relinquishing his independent directorship of the company to take on a senior business development role at the firm.

This strategic move will allow Zambeletti to fully focus on facilitating prospective partnerships for the future plans of bexmarilimab, the company's flagship cancer therapeutic.

Four new dates in the Faron diary for next year . I believe Juho has more options than just the old school placing , but no doubt we'll find out soon . I remember a few videos back he said something along the lines of ' there are people actually wanting to give us money now ' . All the talk of partners over the last few years may have been true , but the time has now arrived when the $ profits for a buyer can actually happen - not just a forecast . It's time for them to show their cards .

Partly down to number of shares now in issue . Back then we had about 64m shares - so £3.60 gave us Mcap of £230m .

Up to a few days ago we were at about £200m Mcap - with 105m shares . In old money that would have given us an SP of £3.12 .

But a year ago or more - AIM was buzzing and flush with money . Its been a draining pool for the last few years . Valuations are terrible .

We are getting close - and we've never been so close - but the Market has been hearing this for years .

Another month and we will be on fumes again . If no deal materialises . then it may take a small cash injection ( up to £10m I'm guessing ? ) to keep the company on the right side of IPF while the P2 data is packaged up .

But they have such and ambitious pipeline laid out - that now way will we be self funding any further trials alone .

I'm confident that there 'ARE' partners at the table . But the Market will continue to slowly deflate the SP until we get next news . New UK sites are known but not RNS'd in detail . Also the P3 discussions with UK regulators should give more detail as to how this ' Global P3 ' will develop .

We've seen the SP do this for years .

Looking around at other companies - despite slumping a bit - we aren't a disaster . Many of my shares I follow are fractions of what they used to be a year ago . 70-80% down . Loads of them .

So , a bit of news and we should be bobbing around £200m Mcap . And we hold there until Juho finally gets this baby sold or licensed .

Compare that presentation to ones a few years ago - so much data - and so much progress . Every step of the development has just built the case for Bex . The biggest takeaway for me though that gives me confidence is the newly appointed members of the SAB . Such big hitters - to come onboard at this point - is such a clear signal that Bex is being lined up for the green light and a seat at the big boys table .

Hopefully not too long to wait until we get lifted out of the swamp .

MDS Foundation

https://www.mds-foundation.org/about-us/about-mdsf

Faron there in the partner list - amongst J&J , BMS , Pfizer , Jazz , Novartis , Merck , Gilead ...

Add Bayer to that and you've got a whos who of potential partners there lol

Just watching the vid now .

In addition to the science update -

Faron has partnered with the US MDS Foundation .

Prep for P3 trial to commence as early as Jan 25

The FTD and ILAP will accelerate timelines for commercialisation

Competitors - there are a few in trials - but with lower ORR and much higher adverse effects and also lower survival gains .

Data is looking amazing .

Pushing the envelope to the FDA as to when the patients can get this treatment

Juhos words - Very action packed year ahead .

Going for Breakthrough Status .

And pushing for access for patients - and not waiting for a P3 to start .

So some kind of EUA ? rolling approval . Who knows what options may be available ?

Juho sounds very bullish .

On the Naz 330k vol 646 trades . UK about 17k . Just shows where the interest ( money ) is . Imagine a US Naz listing . Lucky that we aren't just stuck on AIM like some early stage pharmas . Hopefully with the expansion of the trial sites soon , and more details on the path to approval , momentum will just continue to build .

I expect today will be just a science explanation , but as well as just showing great Bexmab data , the mode of action is being proven up more and more - giving confidence to those looking at partnering for the other combi trials .

Yes West looks like so far 4 of the 20 have been able to end treatment early with a transplant . And by the looks of the chart , all achieved that within 3-5 months - so very early in the trial . Amazing success . The data is immense - and the bar is so low for success in r/r MDS that as Juho stated - the trial is positive already .

Https://faron.videosync.fi/bexmab-study-update-dec2024/register