Good riposte, TDT - it's so easy, too easy, to chortle about our short comings but against the totalitarian regimes in the world, they're so much worse, as many 'refugees' risking life and limb to get here would undoubtedly testify - sasa.
Hi Manuel, good to hear from you and hope you're well...
Yep, you win some, you lose some - fortunately for me, Serica has produced more than the £55k odd I'll lose here with, hopefully, a fair bit more to come from them - hope you've still got yours... ATB - sasa.
after all these years of funding, hoping and waiting.
We're in the 'last chance saloon' now, folks, make no mistake and they're only two realistic choices available to us:-
1. Accept the 1.8p divd now in respect of the sale of the Irosta sub which holds the mining licence and run on with its parent, Amur Minerals, with some $10m cash in the bank currently, hoping they can find an alternative scheme outside Russia to invest in subsequently or, if you think the deal is 'Yes' to proceed but might not get approval from the RF even now, then:-
2. Sell your AMC shs forthwith for some 1.25p in removing that risk and have done with it.
That's my take on this denouement, fwiw - sasa.
Hi QC - just got back in and seen your post / question re: how an NBP mean reversion now would affect Serica's valuation / SP?
Well, all things being equal (which they never can be) it would be lower than today's price, obviously; maybe back to, say, 250p in todays circumstances as a pure guess but I don't see the point really in addressing such a hypothetical question until the LTA is with us and what the micro / macro backdrop would then look like.
We are where we are currently and it'll be some time before that reversion is seen, by all accounts. If, however, VP suddenly brings the Ukraine war to an end / the West resumes buying his gas, regardless, etc., it could occur much quicker than anticipated, I guess...
If that happened, maybe Serica would then strive urgently to go out and acquire something worthwhile with all their dosh to counter all the brickbats surrounding their desultory M&A record so far to surprise us all or, at least, hire a specialist to assist them, you never know! - sasa.
No probs, upomega - we're all in the same boat here, rowing the same way; at least the genuine LTHs are...
Still waiting to learn from SpArmada, btw, what value he places on Serica today, having pooh poohed my assessment yesterday and why? - sasa.
So you think that Serica's still cheap, then, Maverick, despite the management's 'disgraceful performance' post their transformational BKR deal a few years ago - we agree on the 'value' argument, at least.
Not as much ambition as AA's deal making activities, granted; maybe they were too preoccupied in bedding down the BKR assets / staff transfers / sorting out several probs with maintenance / changing a long section of a waxed up pipe line / detaching a dangerous caisson / finally developing Rhum 3 / bringing Columbus online and now they've just 'spudded' Nth Eigg which may or may not, double their P2 reserves if they bring it in successfully.
Yeah, that's what running a successful upstream O&G outfit regularly involves rather than chasing deals, per se. Despite those preoccupations, they have been too cautious on that front with all their cash not put to work ('not overpaying / value not volume', etc., ) in hindsight, granted and have 'taken their eye off the ball' in that regard and now run the risk of being acquired by AA in consequence. They clearly didn't see him coming - that's also true.
I'm no 'flag bearer' for Serica, btw but given the facts of where they are now / their statistical appeal and concomitant desirability today, owes more to hard work than pure luck and any buyer should pay a realistic price for the shares and it starts with a '5' on my calcs... sasa.
I certainly agree that a share buy back would be the least appealing route to go down currently, Maverick, as it would be tantamount to a selfish 'cop out' but agreeing with this new poster that the BoD are a disgrace, given where we are today, is excessive criticism and unwarranted, bearing in mind the performance of the sp over the past year or so.
If you and SpArmada really think that, then why hold any shs in a Co. where you have such disdain for the people running it? - sasa.
Fair comment, surprised, re: the present state of affairs.
Yes, most of the LTHs on here agree, I think, that the present offer from Kistos is well below what constitutes 'fair value' so where might that reside?
I've considered from the outset that to get to that level, any offer (all in cash, ideally but for the most part, anyway) needs to start with a '5' in front of it and if it takes an additional 150p cash boost to augment the existing terms proffered, to bring it up to some 575p, as NewK suggests, it would then constitute that on current stats and perceived prospects, I reckon.
Whether AA can / would run to that, either via bond issuance or temporary 'bridging' finance, remains to be seen but we'll know very shortly. It's also worth considering that, if he does, it would be very difficult for Serica's BoD to argue that its last offer still 'materially undervalues the Co.' at that sp level, imv, notwithstanding the Nth Eigg outcome, which could go either way.
Moreover, such a fulsome valuation would probably nullify Serica's counter attack of a substantial 'special divd' announcement from them, of say, 100p ps, as such a much enhanced cash element from AA, even reduced accordingly, would comfortably exceed that.
As much as I remain very supportive of SQZ, their 'radio silence' to date could well cost them their escape from AA's clutches if they're not careful / don't 'pull the proverbial out of the hat' somehow at this late stage.
Everything has its price, after all - sasa.
'So, who took BP's 5% stake, too, for that matter?' Yes, who was it and do they still hold it?
Well remembered that unanswered question, NewK - that holding could now be pretty crucial at this delicate stage, especially if the holder is aligned with AA's plans - sasa.
If Serica has no acquisition plans of its own 'up its sleeve' to thwart such a final, cash orientated, improved offer like you've suggested, NewK (given cash is very much 'king' at present) then their only defence would be to announce a substantial 'special divd' / capital repayment proposal as many on here have been calling for.
Doing so would prompt AA to reduce his revised offer to that extent, as he's already stated he would so, unless another party enters the fray, that seems almost inevitable, unless they decide to recommend acceptance, of course... sasa.
Yep, am inclined to agree with that, NewK, as upping the equity element now seems exhausted.
Senior secured bonds or even a lesser prior charge like a convertible might suffice, given his charisma / deal making record, etc; whatever, the voting outcome will be the deciding factor, as you say. A 575p combo would be very difficult to defend if he upped the 'ante' to that extent.
Still find it puzzling, though, that Serica has kept 'schtum' since urging us shareholders merely to 'take no action' at this stage - Rothschilds are usually quite proactive in these situations, if memory serves but then they might yet be working on something significant to surprise us all!
So you never know - 'Hope springs'... and all that - sasa.
We should know whether the 'deal maker' or the 'business operator' wins the day here.
With the rash of RNS 8.3s coming thick and fast, it's difficult to know who'll come out on top, although the relative sp performances over the past few days, suggests to me that Serica currently has the edge as a steadier sp showing for them has been seen.
Let's hope that pointer culminates in AA walking away, given his revised terms are nowhere near enticing enough and Serica can now get down to gainfully utilising much of its surplus cash rather than just hoarding it - sasa.