Member Info for Sangijuelas1

Even a bad CPI print is probably less relevant than the risk to banks from further rate rises. Talk is now turning to rate cuts by the end of the year.

They also need to give time for the rate rises to feed through to the economy. There is always a lag.

Also one thing to consider that has been overplayed is the discount models that assume growth companies don't put their own prices up in an inflationary environment. Their future income is discounted at past prices.

What do they need more cash for?

https://carta.com/blog/venture-capital-secondary-market/

Some details on how the VC secondary markets function

It was quoted in a source I would trust. Probably FT article - might have been in the comments

Triple Point wrote down the value on their books to $28bn a few days ago

That would be a good idea rather than randomly allocating a value of $5bn to it when you can still sell at market cap between $12-15bn on the extremely illiquid secondary market for VC holdings

Until the companies actually fold we aren't going to know when they are going to run out of cash.

Aiven was burning capital very fast and sales growth very slow. I literally looked at their most recent company report on the Finnish companies house. Revenue was £37m. They have just announced the appointment of a Chief Revenue Officer.

There are also several portfolio companies that are still at the conceptual stage. Riverlane, Evonetix, Paragraf to name 3.

Others like Hadean have fairly low revenues but a lot of potential.

On balance I still feel the good outweighs the bad.

But I have cut the NAV down to about 500.

Fortunately Sage NAV is not calculated by you making an estimate without understanding a business like Revolut!

Steph, we don't have buyers at the best of times when we have broker targets and NAV well above the SP.

Their BAE Systems partnership featured on Sky News
https://mobile.twitter.com/hadeaninc/status/1635270155742900225

MV is in FTSE 250 Index funds.
The 250 is down 2.8%
We get hit harder because of the typical low MV specific trade volume

Stocks getting dumped in favour of government bonds.
Market manipulators bid up futures on the Fed news and buying up bonds cheap and locking in the rates.
Will calm down once stocks look cheap enough for them to rotate back

Predicting Fed will pause rate rises.

Start ups use the likes of SVB UK because they didn't ask directors of the companies to provide personal guarantees for loans etc

Also they understood emerging tech where established banks often don't. Look at the recent criticism from the sector when the government gave the Tech Nation funding to Barclays.

Yes some founders and VCs were pretty dumb having so much in one bank. But there wouldn't have been an issue if SVB had insured their long term bond position.

I not like they made loads of risky loans that failed. Losses would have been 15%. Compare that to Washington Mutual whose mortgage securities went to zero because the Mafia had started paying people to apply for mortgage loans in 2007 because it was more profitable than their other ventures.

I also think short sellers dug deep into their reserves over the weekend ready to smash markets on Monday open.

Despite the resolution and the Fed standing behind the likes of First Republic they are still having a go. (Not saying MV is being shorted but markets and US regional banks)

There's a real movement at the moment to crash markets and bring down the fed driven by the likes of Zero Hedge, Peter Thiel and their political allies like Marge Green.

I posted a critique on Twitter when the VCs were pleading for help from Hunt given all the other issues small businesses are facing.
I was then retweeted by a Russian affiliated propaganda unit!

If this drops below 290 I may tap into my cash reserves for a few more.

Funnily enough I think the issue driving UK markets down today is bank stocks, whose price has been inflated recently by expectations of increased profits from rising interest rates.

And now it looks like that bet on rising rates is at risk

They have cash. They got £15m recently from the fund of funds program and more from selling Trustpilot shares.

The operational costs are fairly low so it is only an issue if there is a funding round for a portfolio company

A hit from what? The issue has been sorted.

It's pegged to the FTSE 250 and that's down due to index trades

It's sorted. SVB UK is open for business this morning.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1635025402241630210