The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I think another way to look at it is that it’s possibly a shrewd move to delay the block xx signing of contracts whilst drilling SL. It could leave options open to divert/hold back funds if a positive outcome is looking likely. If you look at it this way another month could mean the outlook is good. I agree the opposite would be true with no announcement and no oil shows though.
I like to look at the overall campaign COS. OK accepted it is only internal estimates but both Red Deer and Gazelle are quoted at better than one in two. In bookmakers parlance that makes it odds on we find oil and basically the other four drills are a bonus on top of this. Not a bad bet and basically “beating the book” because if our odds on chance wins we will certainly get a higher payout. It will be interesting when the last drill option is announced as perhaps it is being held back to exploit the findings from one of the others.
I think the truth is quite ironic. The chances of a positive RNS are getting closer while the drill turns, probably until about day 60 when the chances become less. So both good or bad news is getting closer. But as long as you have the right amount invested and bearing in mind the huge potential and 5 more drills you have to be in rather than out. But it’s more fun to be in and it could be a game changer. GLA
I really like the structure and order of this drilling campaign. It has the potential to be the gift that keeps on giving in terms of share price momentum if successful early and plenty of hope left even if no early strike. The geology theories stack up and with Fox and Red Deer to come next year there will always be another good prospect to look forward to. 1. Snow Leopard... multiple layers of play with possible upsides and ability to open multiple leads. 2. Wild Horse ... huge potential recoverable in a four way dip formation 3. Gazelle... internally estimated to have better than 1 in 2 chance of success. 4. Fox .... Large estimated potential in a location where core samples had oil stains. 5. Red Deer... geology very similar to that of oil production area in adjacent block. Really happy to give all of these a go and not worried in the short term. Can anyone clarify the fourth drill this year?
Unlike many here I’m not really expecting an early RNS for each and every stage of SL. Most drills that have positive news give news earlier than the scheduled total forecast time but usually just after half to two thirds of the expected time, as contingencies will have been built in. Negative news is usually later as they drill to TD and don’t uncover anything. There is normally only one communication and it gives some detail that has been properly digested from logs. So all in all it will probably mean another week at least of waiting and no doubt the derampers will try to get in early soon with their duster scaremongering. Here’s hoping for good news from day 25 or so of the drill. GLA
Totally agree Manro, the uncertainty is already built in. More likely to rise until hopefully a positive result. Everyone now knows they have to be in quick or they stand to lose out on news. Even a strike on one of the smaller prospects means this is the lowest the SP is likely to stay at for long.
I have seen an RNS after 14 days of a 30 day drill but no way on a 70 day one. A leak is also probably to soon as well. However those 6.5p placees who are risk averse will need to be out soon and this added to the multiple layers on SL surely means the selling will dry up. Those left in will be there to stay for the results those going want to get out in case of a duster. How long can they wait. Not much longer. The really nervous time will be if it goes to the full 70 days as good news would surely come out from halfway to three quarters unless delays.
Very interested in this share and on the cusp of investing. Actually just waiting for drill results from SDX which I expect to be positive and then using some profits to gamble on this. Have to say even if I don’t get in on time I hope there’s a strike and it’s the players who get rinsed this time.
Totally agree... everyone seems to go for riskier high reward options and think it’s a way to quick gains so maybe the money is elsewhere but in my view this is as good an option of at least double bagging as exists anywhere. The timeline though, well that’s a real conundrum. This time next year surely over a pound and when all’s said and done I won’t complain about that. Especially as the dreaded dilution seems unlikely.
Guesses for how long before the first spike? Potential from SL early shows. Farm in partners for the bigger prospects with fingers on the trigger. Oil price forecasts rising. My guess is even before testing a positive RNS will drive this at least 50% higher. A lot of people deciding now when to plunge in. The only real decision is whether they want to gamble on snow leopard being dry. I don’t think it will be though. My guess is end of July earliest for spike as the company will want to be sure before releasing market changing news.