Edison research24 Jul 2018 16:33
Our valuation is sensitive to several key assumptions such as oil price, WACC, farm-out dilution
and development costs. The valuation waterfall below provides a breakdown of our risked valuation
prior to farm-down at 62.1p/share, followed by what this potential could look like post farm-down at
a range of oil prices. Edison’s base case valuation of 30.8p/share is on the basis of a $70/bbl Brent
long-term oil price and 50% asset level value dilution. We note that the market is currently
assuming a lower oil price assumption and a higher risking/asset level dilution than Edison’s base
case valuation. In the exploration success case, our unrisked valuation would be significantly higher
than our base case 30.8p/share risked valuation at 265p/share. We caveat that completely unrisked
valuations do not take into account our view of geological, technical, commercial or political risks
and should be used for indicative purposes only.