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One thought crosses my mind... If Clinigen can buy up to 29.9% at the lowest possible price.. then they can / will pay a healthy premium for the remainder... What price might the BOD of QP agree to sell out and this will be agreed before hand with the institutional shareholders..
A large Buy at 75.5p for 700K QP shares announced at 17:15pm.. A large buyer is in the wings .. Now who might that be .. Clinegen? or a competing bidder ? Tomorrow will be very interesting
The higher Clinigens share price can rise.. the greater the value of the 'Paper' offer for QP's share... e.g. If 1 Clinigen share at £10 for 10 QP shares each QP share would be valued at £1.00...If Clinigen shares rise to £12.00 the potential value of each QP share rises to £1.20 .. and no additional shares (to compensate for the higher price need to be issues) .. Good for Clinigen and if you are a believer in Clinigen Paper then good for QP shareholders.(as the value of the offer for each QP share rises as Clinigen share price rises..
A very interesting trade announced after the market closed..at 17.15pm today a 500k buy at 75p...The QP board and its brokers / backers are possibly playing the game as well if not better than Clinigen...trying to maximise shareholder value from any bidder. All conjecture of course..
It is likely to be financial backers / brokers of Clinigen doing their job for their client..in trying to supress the price and make any offer appear more attractive...a known ploy !
It depends on the current QP institutional holders If they are current Holders of Clinigen and seek to increase..they might favour more paper than cash...If they are fully loaded with Clinigen shares they might prefer the offer more loaded to cash.. What I would like is the option of shares or cash rather than a combination...Where there is a combination offer ..usually the smaller holders will sell the paper immediately on receipt..thus causing a short term dip until the paper overhang us removed. . One further observation Clinigen itself is an attractive purchase or merger with an international pharma company. It's independence after acquiring QP may be short lived.
There are many business ratios that can be ysws to determine Value... Clinigen will when carrying out due diligence discover the real and future value opportunities within QP ..I am referring to the pipeline of drugs.. Partnerships and Cost reductions of replicated areas..e.g Head office overheads. TRANSLATED in my view to a possible serious premium to current share price. The major institutions are familiar with this type of scenario.. And will negotiate strongly for the best deal for both themselves and we Private Shareholders ..What is a likely take out price for QP....with Clinigen paper highly valued and rising..they can afford to be more than a little generous to gain their prey.. 102 -130p is possible..
The agreed take out price for QP is NOT in the hands of the CEO...and not in the hands of Private Investors...it rests with the Institutions who have been with QP from the beginning and those that added to the register during the lifeboat fundraising... The fundraising was easily subscribed...which meant to me the institutions were more than happy with Chris Rigg,s strategy and importantly the return on capital they would / could expect... The takeover makes excellent sense for all parties...hopefully for the QP staff as well who could further thrive within a specialist profitable Pharma... The key consideration to take out price will be the latest results due soon...which I suspect will be at the top end of expectations..The take out price if my calculations are any where near right should be 300%of 34p which simply put is 102 p or there about... The other consideration is the current QP major shareholders in Clinigen..and this might affect both final take out price and split between shares and cash QP shareholders will be offered... A very interesting few weeks ahead..
Very simialr to yesterday.. Share Sales Approx 423K Share Buys Approx 90K close to the 5-1 ratio yesterday and yet the shares still remained positive and ended the day up 1.125p .. What do others make of this ?
A very confident half year trading statement...Further positive news expected on half year results expected on the 30th August 2017... I suspect that the share price was already anticipating the positive news and a further step upwards in QP share price is likely if expectations are met / exceeded when half year results are announced.. What is interesting is the ratio of shares SALES to Buys.. Sales totaled approx 815K and Buys approx 150K a ratio of sells to buys of nearly 5-1... Yet the share price reamined positive and even ended the day 1.25p upwards.. My view of the sales is that they may have been from the Slater investment holding which sat below the 3% llimit for declaration and therefore no notification required..But more interesting is who has bought the outstanding stock and when might we receive a notification RNS from an existing major holder or is this the start of stakebuilding by a predator who recognises the very positive progress and divestments made by the new CEO .. It is in my opinion looking very positive... and if the right International Partnerships can be established.. and replication of the current model transferred to other companies in International territories.. todays share price may look very cheap indeed..
LOXL2 inhibitor program Pharmaxis is working with its collaborator, UK biotechnology company Synairgen plc (LSE: SNG) to commence a phase 1 study in the second half of 2017. The Pharmaxis drug discovery group has developed a number of selective inhibitors to the lysyl oxidase type 2 enzyme (LOXL2). LOXL2 is a key enzyme in the formation of excessive collagen depositions and important in the liver disease NASH, cardiac fibrosis, kidney fibrosis, the fatal lung disease idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and also plays a role in some solid cancers. Large pharma company interest The role of LOXL2 in fibrotic diseases such as NASH and pulmonary fibrosis is of significant interest to many large pharma companies. The annual US BIO conference in June 2017 provided an opportunity to share updates with them on Pharmaxis’s scientific progress and the timing of its partnering process which it plans to initiate in the second half of 2017 and conclude with a partnering deal in 2018.
SNG is NOT your usual AIM share it is operating in a very unique niche "A drug discovery and development company focused on advancing novel approaches for severe respiratory conditions"... It has the backing of a number of serious and heavyweight investors .. Whilst the Astra Trial was not a success the returned data from its Phase 2 Trial together with new research findings now point to a serious opportunity to apply its Interferon B discoveries to the very opportunistic area of COPD... Likewise its LOXL2 Inhibitor Partnership Programme for Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is fully functioning and in Progress.. . What shareholders who understand this market place and new drug pipeline development activity realise is that either one or both key programmes IF adopted or acquired by a major Pharma for further development is likely to be worth not 10's of millions of pounds but Hundreds of Millions of pounds or even more depending on successfull adoption by the market and worldwide / global sales.. In summary this is a share where the possible rewards can be not just substantial but Outstanding to shareholders... Yes the share price may decline further... No news does not necessarily mean bad news.. but it just means that SNG is getting on with the task in hand to prepare their compounds for Clinical trials and collecting important data to demonstrate efficiacy to potential Partners who appreciate the opportunity to address unmet needs and revenue streams that could run over time into Billions.. Ignore the share price gyrations and focus on the bigger picture... exactly what the larger and more knowledgable shareholders continue to do... When news comes and it will .. Lets hope its positive and the shareprice will be in a new position far far above its present value... Keep the faith and let the SNG team work on delivering the goods.
The first phase of a four-year £246m Government investment into battery technology is being launched to make batteries more accessible and affordable. Business and Energy Secretary Greg Clark will unveil details of the first phase, known as the Faraday Challenge, on Monday. This will include a £45m competition to establish a centre for battery research which he says will help make the UK a world leader in the design, development and manufacture of electric batteries. This will be spearheaded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) to bring the best minds and facilities together to create a 'battery institute'.
Hoping that in the next few weeks we should have an update on the review of the returned Astra Zeneca data from its Phase 2 Trial...(inhaled interferon ß ) and wider applications to include COPD... Likewise LOXL2 appears to be progressing to plan ... The share price in my opinion has discounted all of the positives that still exist in this unique Company...Woodford Investment Management have kept the faith owning 23.1% of the equity.. and with Woodford's relationship / holdings with other Pharma's both small and large, and GSK's new CEO's approach to creating an improved drug pipeline.. there is I believe substantial opportunity (Including a takeover / merger) for SNG to achieve real success for ALL of its shareholders... this year 2017 will be the most critica (and opportunistic) l in the Companies History.
August 9th is the Trading Update, 30th Aug Half Year Results.. Substantial Progress has been made to date under the new management team...The incentives for the Management team are the signifcant 'Options' they hold.. payable when QP is taken over (hopefully at a substantial premium) or from memory 2020 if the shareprice reaches a price over double the current share price... From the list below one might determine their is substantial faith from Major shareholders in the new management team...My gut feeling is that actions to date and QP's new strategy will deliver for shareholders signifcant value... The following is the latest major shareholder register holdings. Major shareholders (as at 30 June 2017) Shareholders holding more than 3% of the share capital of the Company were: Shareholder Number of shares held % issued share capital Legal & General Investment Management 25,469,135 15.06% Harwood Capital* 25,000,000 14.78% Schroder Investment Management 14,624,383 8.65% Fidelity International 10,515,930 6.22% Aviva Investors 8,200,328 4.85% Cavendish Asset Management 7,975,865 4.72% Janus Henderson Investors 6,602,092 3.90% Milton Asset Management 5,551,297 3.28% Brian George Kennedy 5,163,134 3.05%
From today's Daily Mail.... This just might be the breakthrough that Ceres need to confirm its technological superiority.. Giant rechargeable batteries could soon be installed in Britain to aid green energy facilities. The business secretary Greg Clark is expected to announce plans this week to install the batteries near wind and solar panel farms to help the energy resources continue to supply households when demand increases. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4721646/Rechargeable-batteries-installed-Britain.html#ixzz4neWu8jlK
All of the recorded Trades appear to be AT with a significant number happening within seconds of each other...It lloks like smart trading ... with the objective of making a margin on the difference between Bid and offer prices... they did succeed.. the opening Bid / Offer price was 12.25/13.25.. a difference of 1p or approx 8%.. CWR closed at 10.75/11.00 a difference of nearer to 2.5%...a far better ratio if you intended to short the share.
My reading of the latest Annual Report : We can expect an announcement sooner rather than later regarding The Medication Adherence Division.. I suspect it will be sold and this should make the remaining two divisions even more attractive to a Predator .. With 2 experienced Finance in the guise of CEO and CFO and substantial options just waiting to be triggered by any any successful takeover... I do believe that QP will soon be in play... This is all conjecture, but the CEO is doing his job by focusing on both profitability and Growth... who knows, but when the sale of the Medication division is completed .. there should be a substantial reduction in remaining group debt and funds available to grow further the core assets of the company.