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Just an Observation...There appears to be huge effort to keep Clinigen shares around the £11.00 mark.. and QP shares around the 70p mark... The number of Forms 8.3, 8.5 etc being posted daily detailing existing and new owners / position takers is fascinating... plus the individual dealings both buys and sells being recorded on the said Forms.. Rylidan is I believe spot on when he says Clinigen cannot afford to lose this deal..Clinigen share price is supporting waht i hope to be a generous offer when it comes .. Not 'If' it comes..Together these two companies would have a unique pipeline, global reach and a near monopoly in the market place .. Combined it may be seen as The Share of the decade..(Hopefully)
If I remember correctly ALL the Directors option amounts are included in the total share capital of QP.. in other words Chris Rigg's options would be eligible to be converted once the takeover activity has been finalised and agreed...As per his option contract 'On Change of Control' .. His options would be accounted for in the final price / value placed upon QP... With regard to how much Chris R will receive... He may be subject to a combination of National Insurance, Income Tax, and or Capital Gains Tax . (I am No expert in this) . He will only be selling / offering his shares to Clinigen as again as previously stated they become valid after a Change of Control .. Ony a view !
What is very interesting is that the recorded transactions by Directors of Clinigen are all Sells No Buys ... And even since those sells the shares have shot up significantly ...Are Clinigen shares over valued? or Directors simply bad at their timings of share sales..... Thoughts ? Directors' Share Dealings Transaction Holdings Director/ Date/ Type Amount Price (GBX) Value (£) Amount Mr. John Bacon 28/06/2017 | Sale 200,000 842.50 1,685,000.00 530,767 Mr. Peter George 22/06/2017 | Sale 500,000 875.00 4,375,000.00 2,814,242 Mr. John Bacon 11/11/2016 | Sale 200,000 717.00 1,434,000.00 730,767 Mr. Peter George 18/10/2016 | Sale 2,200,000 750.00 16,500,000.00 3,357,242 Shaun Chilton 18/10/2016 | Sale Option Shares 97,246 750.00 729,345.00 412,943
If you are correct,, perhaps its a two way bet on the outcome...If QP share price falls the short would be worth substantially more... If the bid succeeds the Long holding would be worth considerably more..
Very Interesting that today Sigma Broking submitted a Form 8.3 detailing a short of QP shares totaling 3330418 1.96% of equity... Now why have they taken this position ? Betting on a No Bid ? or is this a clever ploy by Clinigen in helping to keep the QP share Price around the 70p mark?
robins.. Interesting question... the answer I belive lies in the continuous filing of Forms 8 / 8.3 / 8.5 forms...Most of these forms include trades of buys and sells .. some small and some not so small...I suspect that there is a strong desire by associates / supporters of Clinigen to keep the price as stable / low as practically possible.. Thus any bid figure offered by Clinigen can be tailored to address a current price of round about 70p... Thus Clinigen with itas continuous rising share price can offer a very attractive premium to QP holders without having to issue excess paper in its own shares...As per my previous comments.. If Clinigen were originally going to offer 1 Clinigen share (priced at £10.. for every 10 QP shares that would be £1 for every QP share... I do appreciate there is a cash element within the offer... With Clinigen having risen over the past days / weeks to £11.39p... Each QP share would now be worth nearly £1.14p a 14% increase ... If Clinigen shares continue to rise the offer to QP shareholders...would also rise robins .. you have previously mentioned that you thought Clinigens share price rise would allow them to offer less shares (to take into account their rising share price).. With institutional shareholders dominating the share register... this is a very unlikely scenario... They like us know the real value both now and moving forward of QP and it wont be allowed to go cheap..
Have re-checked it is the 13th Sept 2017.. Rule 2.6(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the “Code”), requires that Clinigen, by no later than 5.00 p.m. on 13 September 2017, being the 28th day following the date of this announcement, either announces a firm intention to make an offer for Quantum Pharma in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announces that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline will only be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel, in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.
Corrected text from my reply below : Clinigen have a business model and management that the market appears to more than impressed with.. The rise in Clinigens shares is a reflection of both that and a support for the QP Group bid... In my view the rise in Clinigens share price is most likle to support a higher offer (remember it is shares plus cash )... The combined group with relevant cost savings, a signifcant pipeline from both organisations.. can only make the market and Clinigen management desire a successful outcome... That outcome may come at a price (signifcantly higher than we may expect) ... With regard to Clinigen shares... Broker forecasts are positive and for every seller there are willing buyers who will snap them up...What downward pressure from QP holders selling may be very short lived and Clinigens shares may well continue to rise... Some pundits forecasting £15 upwards... You either believe or not... the choice is yours.
Clinigen have a business model and management that the market appears to more than impressed with.. The rise in Clinigens shares is a reflection of both that and a support for the QP Group bid... In my view the rise in QP's share price is most likle to support a higher offer (remember it is shares plus cash )... The combined group with relevant cost savings, a signifcant pipeline from both organisations.. can only make the market and Clinigen management desire a successful outcome... That outcome may come at a price (signifcantly higher than we may expect) ... With regard to Clinigen shares... Broker forecasts are positive and for every seller there are willing buyers who will snap them up...What downward pressure from QP holders selling may be very short lived and QP shares will continue to rise... Some pundits forecasting £15 upwards... You either believe or not... the choice is yours.
The upward momentum of Clinigen shares appears to be unstoppable.. this can only be good for the final agreed takeout price for QP.
A theory and nothing more...To complete the full takeover of a company the Bidder needs to acquire (I think) 90% of the shares.. Once 90% has been reached they can compulsary acquire the outstanding 10%... But if they cannot reach the magic 90% marker.. then the bidder has to contend with all manner of issues with regard to minority holders possibly including Court Action in an attempt to resolve... No Bidder wants to have any of these issues hanging over their head... I would there offer a view and nothing more that Pitchcroft and others might well attempt to act as an individual or collective stopper of any proposed takeover unless the takeout price is more than acceptable ...This in a way can benefit smaller shareholders who would not have the individual clout to resist what might be considered by some an unacceptable offer... It is but a theory !
robins... I would also hope for around the £1.00 mark... The final value of the offer will likely depend on the value placed on Clinigen' shares and how much of the offer is share based ... Clinigen shares are currently riding high and may continue upwards during the period leading up to the 22nd Sept when I beieive a firm bid / withdraw decision has to be made...
Just a theory and nothing more...the continuous dribble of share sales is enough to stop QP share price rising signifcantly from around the 70 p mark ...and thus any bid (if at all) from Clinigen using their highy valued / rated shares will look signifcantly more attractive to current owners..and therefore more likely to accept
Nearly 5 times as many Sells as Buys and share Price closes 0.5p higher than yesterday at 69P.. Now what does that tell you ... Remember the Forms 8.3/ 8.5 continue to show sells buy Institutions and others... All sells are being hovered up by Clinigen and its associates.. I suspect that the size of the sells must rise if Clinigen are to get near 29,9% before launching their bid...
CLinigens takeover strategy is in full swing.with friendly associates consistantly selling small and not so small blocks of QP shares.. Forms 8.3 and 8.5 give insight into their share dealings... Driving down the price is the obvious way forward whilst driving out weak holders..
This should allow them to offer (if they continue with their Bid) a more attractive price without any excessive dilution of Clinigen equity.. Put another way, Clinigen's share price is both supportive of a QP bid.. and the stronger its equity the greater the chance of a successful outcome for Clinigen.
This should allow them to offer (if they continue with their Bid) a more attractive price without any excessive dilution of Clinigen equity.. Put another way, Clinigen's share price is both supportive of a QP bid.. and the stronger its equity the greater the chance of a successful outcome for Clinigen.
Having read the numerous Forms 8.3 .. It is apparent that Current Institutional holders are releasing bundles of shares on to the market.. Aviva in particular released 3 reported lots of shares SALE 1,021, SALE 468,909, SALE 5,070... either to assist market makers in the liquidity of QP stock, or to support Clinigen with their bid..possibly letting Clinigen build towards the 29.9% max holding... or for other reasons which others may wish to comment on.. We must not forget that Instituional Holders of QP shares may see the real potential of a QP / Clinigen merger as being of substantial value to themselves either through a serious/ increased holding in Clinigen if they are current holders or wishing to become major shareholders... Let's see what the outcome from the Analyst Briefing this morning brings..
There is I believe currently an artifical market in QP shares... Near fixed Bid and Offer Prices and the only sales (I believe are those being released in small / not so small bundles by Institutions.. This is possibly being done to find a market value for the shares from which a full and final offer from Clinigen can be made / assessed... Just some thoughts.