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I presume TH to be Trading Halt.
As the junior party in any Farm Out deal announced, shouldn't we be researching when (insert preferred Tier 1 company)'s preferred day for annoucements is? :)
GLA
I’m well thanks Brom and hope you are too. I read every day but, as is my nature, comment very infrequently, usually trying to pin something back to an accredited source (usually 88e RNS, Q&A or presentation). Obviously very interested to see what FO news comes, any update on further acreage ... and then Winx.
SA
Thanks Brom. At The Forge, DW gave an indicative spud date of “late Feb” for Winx. The Otto clip states 1st of February. Further evidence of DW’s prudence when it comes to releasing plans? Obviously, the weather dependency makes the quoting of any dates an imprecise science, but personally I’ll be keeping end of Feb in mind ...
GLA
SA
Interesting, Brom, thanks. I seem to recall DW giving a pretty strong steer at The Forge that BP were focussing elsewhere (from Alaska). Maybe the majors in general, and BP in particular, are rethinking the importance of Alaska in their portfolio?
GLA,
SA
Has gold ever been found on the north slope? Just sayin'
GLA
Thanks again Phron for the additional details. Certainly very exciting times ahead and I just get more certain that the shares are at a bargain basement price at the moment (hence took up full RI). Time does seem to pass slowly and, as you've stated, a whole year+ of (re)planning will also drag somewhat. But having a Tier 1 on board would surely prompt a rerating of SP and ... of course, that's not our only iron in the fire during 2019.
I guess as a sometimes impatient LTH, I should check the SP on a weekly/monthly basis rather than several times a day as seems to be my habit :)
Thanks again and GLA.
Agreed Phron, especially your opening statement about competitive bidding. This is what was on my mind when I posed the following question to Dave in the recent Q&A:
Q Typically, how many farm in/out partners/consortia are considered to ensure that the chosen partner is paying the full commercial value for the play?
A Depends on the deal – for the conventional farm out the audience is very large. The HRZ is more specialized.
And, of course, Dave has publicly stated that there’s healthy interest from Tier 1 operators.
I also ponder whether the 3D results improve the yield profile, for example, being able to target the sweet(est) spot(s) in the acreage earlier in the plan?
GLA
Bits, how much oil did we have in March 16? Other factors can drive the SP but oil is clearly top of the list. Personally, I don’t expect, or even look for, SP movement every hour/day/week or even RNS but I’m happy that 88e is set fair in the longer term ... getting shorter all the time. Not long to wait...
GLA
SA
Looks like a useful and strategically significant addition to the Icewine acreage. Hopefully, DW’s reference to HRZ will reassure any doubters that HRZ is still a high priority, even if it is necessarily marching to a different drumbeat from conventional plays for now.
GLA,
SA
Have just attended tonight’s presentation and currently travelling back home and can see and understand the appetite for some feedback, therefore I’m poking my head above the parapets to give the first summary of tonight’s content.
Dave opened up proceedings with a respectful and well observed period of silence in memory of PB and is clearly still moved by his loss (behind the professional veneer). He then went on to step through the Investor Update slides which were issued in Tuesday’s ANN/RNS. Clearly 30 slides in 30 minutes is a tall order for any presenter (or audience) so he delivered a careful edited version and dwelt on around 10/12 slides to deliver his message. My key take ways we’re:
1) Icewine conventional has (at least) caught up with unconventional as the number one priority.
2) “Tier 1” players currently have access to the virtual data room and the physical data room opens to the same players very soon.
3) BP are becoming less focused on Alaska. ConocoPhillips are becoming more focused, as are other major players who might want to cover CPs moves in the region.
4) He would like to close the Conventional Farm Out by year’s end but, if a major is interested and requests more time, he would be inclined to allow more time.
5) If a “Tier 1” operator does not step up with a commercially viable offer, he would expand the search to “Tier 2” operators.
6) Target date for Winx to spud is late February.
7) He dwelt on slide 18, emphasising that green on yellow is a good show for oil probability. He seemed more excited by this analysis than I had been at first reading (one of the benefits of being there and hearing the content delivered in person)
8) Icewine analysis places Icewine very well on the graph top right of slide 26. I didn’t catch the precise Icewine values DW mentioned so one to check on the video.
9) Slide 30. To me, DW seemed very pleased with the “channel feature” identified by the early Yukon 3D mapping but awaits next stage analysis to affirm.
10) Icewine unconventional appears last on slide 32 but remains a key focus. The low key positioning reflects the fact that there is no new news to deliver at this stage.
11) PB’s loss is being mitigated as best as possible by hiring in the relevant expertise, even if this means, in DW’s words needing five people to replace one.
I’m approaching my station, so won’t attempt to cover Q&A at this stage but I think there was a good range of questions including some hard hitting ones with DW even answering a tougher question than asked at one stage (i.e. what happens if all four opportunities fail). I know I’ve missed some points, probably including some key ones, but hopeful this starts to quench the appetite for some news and I’d need to rely on some others in the room (good to meet you guys) to help do justice to the feedback.
GLA,
SA
Anyone in The Globe at the moment?
Cheers,
SA
WJMF/BRB1, if you had to write a report covering your last six months’ activity for your/boss/BOD/investors/anyone, how many surprises would you include?
SA
... and DW continues to reaffirm HRZ as his number one strategic priority at every opportunity, including the recent Q&A. For me, the useful purpose of the Q&A was to draw a baseline of confirmed facts, in order to close down much of the unfounded negativity. Perhaps a re-reading of the Q&A (or, for some, a reading) would be useful before posting.
Hoping to get along next Friday, GLA.
SA
Just bumping this thread back up to the top as I posted my question just prior to Brom confirming DW’s visit, so it may have got missed. It’s not a big issue but I’d be interested if anyone thinks the classification of the RNS is anything other than a mistake.
GLA
As a side issue, does anyone know why yesterday’s RNS was filed on AIM (source LSE feed above) in the Mergers, Acquisitions & Disposals category rather than the more usual (and expected) General Announcement? Just a mistake?
GLA
SA
DW, why not choose to be an optimist then? Should help you (and maybe others) feel a lot better.
GLA,
SA
Thanks for the heads up JJ. Hopefully the announcement will reassure many of the recent posters that there isn’t any thumb twiddling going on in 88E or their consortium partners. Pleasing initial reaction on ASX too which would be great to see reinforced on AIM later today.
BTW, as a horse racing fan, I like the naming of The Winx prospect. Let’s hope it’s an equally big, serial winner.
GLA
SA
Phrontist, over the years I’ve silently observed many ping-pong exchanges of the kind we’ve had today. I often think to myself, these guys are never going to agree so why don’t they agree to differ and end the debate before they dig deeper trenches; so I suggest we do just that. Better still, why don’t we celebrate what we have in common. We both hold shares in a company with great prospects, we’d both like to see the oil flow at commercially viable rates and the resultant revenues be they $$$ (AUD or USD) or £££. We both rate the company as a strong buy. We’ve also managed to keep a civil tone, thanks for that.
Agree to differ. Deal or no deal?
GLA & GN.
SA
Emperor Phron, IMO the BOD needed a plan for the 50% COS and also a plan(s) for the 50% COF. Only they will know whether they committed funds to a conventional play which assumed a better unconventional outcome than they had at that time. I’m happy to trust their judgement.
The rest of your response falls into the hindsight category and that’s not my bag. You call it experience and I think that’s wise. The experience perhaps suggests that you find a company that behaves in a way that you approve and then invest in it. Better that than investing and then expecting the company to change ... in my experience.
BTW, hindsight can change over time. Maybe, just maybe, when the details of the unconventional farm out are announced, a different hindsight may apply :)
GLA
SA