Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Hi GG and all,
The Njord Viking, a large AHTS / leading tug is now near location of the NHD JU rig. The weather over the next 48 hours look good (to me) for a rig-move, so let's hope that the tow will start soon. Southwark drilling is next, but Elwood & Blythe are ready to start production soon.
The rig-move of the Noble Hans Deul JU-rig will start soon. 2 Multratug tugs are on site. these will be used for positioning the JU-rig and assist during the tow to Southwark,.The leading tug is not yet seen on Marine Traffic. So......the drilling work on the Blythe location is nearly completed, the next step is to get all the production facilities, pipelines and receiving facilities up&running for first gas. GLA
Indeed very good news and my compliments to the IOG team for their perseverance to bring this to the present status. As a LTH (since 2011, when IOG did not yet exist and EELI / MOST were the predesessors) I kept track of the SP. During 2015 we had an all-time low of 4.55 p / share. It felt like a bundle of useless and worthless shares by then, so I simple left it sitting with wishfull thinking that maybe , sometime .............??? 10 years later this company has matured a lot and the future is bright!
GG, Peakview,
Thanks for your replies. And i fully agree that we will need low-carbon natural gas for a long time to come. IOG's commitment for cleaner & greener energy is the right thing! But... things are on the move and quickly changing. I was at a ferry conference 2 weeks ago; the only real topic was about CO2 reduction, alternative energy sources, etc. Capture of CO2 in the exhaust system is developed and a short sea vessel is being equiped with such a system. The CO2 then goes to the agriculture / greenhouses in the Rotterdam area. Shipping is still regarded as one of the major polluters. But with 90-95% of everything that we have being transported at least once on a ship, it is also a huge industry. Indeed very interesting to see which way things move over the next years. GLA
Food for thoughts: the energy transition is picking up steam. By 2030 almost all new cars will not burn hydrocarbons for fuel anymore. Shipping: by 2050 the CO2 emmissions must be halved worldwide, a lot of effort is now going in alternative fuels: methanol, ammonia, hydrogen, etc. LNG is a so-called "transition fuel", but Maersk published this week that LNG will not be used on new-building vessels and is looking at a hydrocarbon-free fleet in the future. Norway will ban hydrocarbons on all short-sea trades, ferries and in ports, hybrid vessels with E-power for manouvring and stay in ports are already being build. I do not know much about domestic use of gas in the UK and the future use of gas domestically. All newbuild houses in the Netherlands are now designed gas-free. And the Dutch top financial newspaper FD wrote an article about the wholesale by oil&gas majors of older fields. Kistos (a spac financial vehicle)) trades on the AIM and picked up Tulip Oil last year. This still leaves the question: who will pick up the bill for the removal of O&G assets at the end of life? So I was just wondering on this Saturday morning: how long will gas production in te SNS continue and what will be the sentiment on the SP? Any thoughts? Have a nice weekend
Thank you GG for the "heads-up". Much appreciated, since i was wondering what the 2014 BP deal was all about.
Exiting days ahaed till the end of this year.
Good morning, I understand from the past that the Blythe gas was sold to BP some years ago. Was that at the gasprice of that moment, or is there a correction for present day rates? And how about the gas from Elgood and Southwark?
The crane vessel Seaway Strashnov has left the Blythe location yesterday and is on her way back to Rotterdam. Without any formal releases from IOG, it is safe to assume that the Blythe platform is now also installed and commissioned and ready to receive the drilling rig Noble Hans Deul. At the Elwood well location it is business as usual, PSV Vos Paradise on site for cargo operations, stand-by safety vessels hoovering around, no tugs for a rig-move on site yet. Just another day at the office!
Peakview e.a.:
Marine operations update: At the Noble Hans Deul site (Elwood location) it is still business as usual. The rig has been on-site for around 2 months now and the reported duration of this well (including testing and completion) is 3 months. Supply vessel activity also normal, the VOS Paradise is in Great Yarmouth since this morning for yet another cargo run to the rig.
At the Southwark location the crane barge Seaway Stashnov has been stationary and working for over a week now. I assume that the platform has been installed on the seabed and completion / commissioning work is ongoing. Once done the crane barge will re-locate to Blyth to install the monotower platform there. Blyth should be installed and commisioned before the next rig-move of the NHDeul. The rig will be positioned alongside the platform, the drilling tower is on a cantlever platform that will be pushed out over the platform. Drilling will be done through the leg of the monotower .
Blythe is designed with 2 conductor pipes for 2 wells.
Have a nice day!
Good observations GG, you beat me on this one :)
VOS Partner has replaces the VOS Paradise on the Noble Hans Deul supply run
Business as usual offshore at the Noble Hans Deul. The PSV VOS Paradise is alongside the rig since early this morning, cargo, consumables and food going up, backload coming down. She made another cargo run into Great Yarmouth earlier this week.
And there is no activity yet at the Blythe location. Have a nice weekend.
At the fabrication site of HSM in Schiedam, Netherlands, the load-out and seafastening work on a seagoing barge of the 2 IOG platforms Blythe and Southwark is progressing smoothly. In the following days the transport will go offshore and the installation of the 2 NUI will start. My guess is that the Seaway Strashnov crane vessel will do the actual liftind and installation work offshore.
https://www.hsmoffshore.com/en/projects/oil---gas/platforms/blythe-platform/#&gid=1&pid=1
Saturday morning marine update:
Again a normal quiet drilling week offshore. The PSV VOS Paradise did a quick cargo run into Great Yarmouth on Tuesday. This morning she came back in for the "normal" weekend cargo, stores and food-run. And there is no additional activity offshore. I read somewhere on the IOG site (or in an RNS) that the time to drill, test and complete this well at Elgood could take up to 3 months, we are now in week 4. Have a nice weekend!
Peakview, thanks for the comments. And off course the actual SP includes emotions and politics of the larger shareholders. But to me the math and logic made me realise better that we may be sitting on something nice!
And from an operational point: quite impressive how the board has gathered a group of top-notch main contractors to bring the development to a good end!
Have a nice day!
A friend and LTH from the previous century made an impressive spreadsheet about the potential of IOG. (just a few years ago IOG did not exist yet, EBOROIL -Northern Resources-, EELI & MOST were predecessors and APH & all in 1990 initiated a Spitsbergen coal company)
In short: The price of natural gas is partially governed by the price of Crude Oil. And there are recognized methods to convert Barrels of Oil to Natural gas or vice versa: UK Natural Gas Futures | ICE (theice.com)
The published reserve of IOG is 211.000 MMcubft, equivalent to 2.188.070.000 therms.
The nominal value against a gas price / therm at 55 UKp/therm is 1.203 M UK£
The total development and production cost will amount to UK£ 852 M (published figures plus a US$ 100M / UK£ 72 M reserve / contingency)
The value of the IOG shares could therefore be the profit after sales (approx. UK£ 350 M) divided by the amount of shares (approx 603 M) and that makes 58 UKp/share
When the gas price drops to 50 UKp/therm, the SP drops to 39 UKp.
However, at a gas price of 60 UKp/therm the SP rises to 76 UKp.
The present gas price is 51.5 UKp, during summer it will drop below 50 UKp and the forecast for winter 2021/2022 is 58 UKp.
Any comments??
The PSV VOS Paradise spend 5 days on site, alongside the rig at various times for cargo transfers. She was used as floating storage this week, offloading equipment that was needed on the rig, backloading equipment that was not used anymore. This way the maximum allowable deckload on the rig can be kept within limits. At this moment the vessel arrives in Great Yarmouth, will discharge the deckload (including garbage and empty food containers) and will return offshore today or tomorrow with new drilling equipment, supplies, food & water. It is like a mini-village out there, apart from drilling life goes on on board. Have a nice day!
On site it seems very much "business as usual" The PSV VOS Paradise came on-site on Saturday after loading in Great Yarmouth. Since then she stayed on-site, the occasional visit alongside the rig (for back-loading ops). That means that on the rig all supplies are available, happily drilling along and no requirement for intermedeate and un-planned cargo runs into Great Yarmouth. The weather on-site: perfect today with light airs and low waves. From tomorrow onwards a bit more wind and waves, but everything still within workable conditions.
Have a great day, the SP is slightly up again today!
The PSV VOS Paradise spend yesterday in Great Yarmouth to load cargo and is back on-site this morning. Alongside the rig Noble Hans Deul at this very moment to offload her cargo, consumables (fuel, drilling water & drilling mud, etc) and the much needed food-containers. The weather on site, and in the Southern North Sea, is pretty good the next days. Have a nice weekend.
And in the meantime The supply vessel Vos Paradise spend the last 2-3 days on site, often alongside the rig for cargo operations. During the night she left site and is now at anchor outside Great Yarmouth, ready for the next cargo run to the rig. Have a nice day.
Sharealot, There are a number of supply companies working out of Great Yarmouth. Vos Paradise is now moored on the East side of the river Yare for cargo offloading & loading ops. Sometimes these vessels stay in port waiting for the next load, sometimes they go out to the anchorage and wait there for the next call. It is all about logistics and availability of berths.