Member Info for SageOfOmagh

Have a look at Polygon shorts - over the last 12 months they have shorted Sirius Minerals, Petropavlosk and HUR. POG they started shorting at 8p it's now trading close to 30p and they are massively exposed. Sirius fell through most of 2019 but Polygon came too late to the party and had to sell out at a loss. Now they clearly have not learnt their lesson, repeating the same mistakes with HUR. Classic example of how not to short, they really are a bunch of muppets!

I've been a silent LTH for a long time and am well out of pocket here on paper but fully expect to see a healthy profit still. I've read a few threads on here suggesting that the cash cost of production has risen to 30-40$. It hasn't. From 2019 accounts with an average of 12,900 bbl/day from first oil the cash cost was $21.80. This year averaged 15,500 bbl/day to May, with a few weeks around 10,000 and now 12,000. Even if it doesn't rise from there the 2020 average extraction rate will exceed 2019 so the cash cost per bank should be sub $22. The all-in-one cost incl depreciation will obviously be far higher, around $40/bbl but cash is king in the current economic environment. And even with Brent sub $40/bbl the company is generating substantial cash. There is the cash from 30 months' production to be added to the closing cash balance in last year's accounts before the convertible bonds are due for repayment. For this to be trading at the level of it's bank balance alone is absurd. Value will out ultimately.

Indeed. Come on Brad, pull your finger out. The silence is deafening.

This has been on my watch list for a while and seems to have bottomed out now. I'm in and will top up on the dips with my LGO top slices. I don't expect much movement until Canada starts developing in August but good to get in at the bottom rather than miss the boat when she sails.

I believe LGO were poorly advised by their lawyers in seeking a fraudulent misrepresentation claim rather than merely misrepresentation. The latter would have allowed a settlement a long time ago but the connotations of 'fraudulent' meant that a settlement could not be entertained by the MOG board. So now it's all or nothing and the lawyers are richer.

Rather depressing reversal this week. Still, bought back my recent 47p top slice for 39p hoping it won't fall any further. Multiplie director buys and new contracts with key customers after the EC claim broke are strong reasons for confidence. If we have to be patient to see the value return there is the considerable benefit of a fat dividend to look forward to in the meantime.

Agree although the rise from low to high 40s was on low vols too. Expect this is the new range until Eurochem news confirmed.

Imo the pummelling of the CEY sp is fully justified, the Egypt operations being their only revenue stream. In the case of CAPD it is maybe a quarter of their revenues athough thinksmart rightly points out the profit impact could well be largerI feel the market has totally over-reacted and so have bought in. CAPD has a fairly strong balance sheet and profitable income streams from elsewhere to be able to weather the storm in Egypt. A very similar company SHFT took a similar drubbing a couple of months back on the back of bad news and has since steadily risen as people begin to acknowledge the sell-off was overdone. I expect CAPD to follow a similar gradual recovery once the excitement has dies down.

Fears over Eurochem claim overdone imo. Tone of SHFT directors' rebuttal suggests it is spurious; raised as a bargaining tool to try and settle their liabilities around contract termination on more favourable terms. Could be wrong though - DYOR. Background very similar to CPP when fears that FSA would bankrupt them were massively overdone. Made a mint when those fears receded. GLA holders.